[Деловое общение] Grain and SBM Market Research [Название April организации] 27 Daniel Trading SA
Global positioning of Ukrainian agricultural market Production 7% 6% 7% #4 #6 #8 3% 2% 3% 3% 4% 4% 4/5 5/6 6/7 Feb '7 4/5 5/6 6/7 Feb '7 4/5 5/6 6/7 Feb '7 barley Ukraine barley other corn Ukraine corn other wheat Ukraine wheat other Export #3 5% 5% 9% Source: USDA 4/5 5/6 6/7 Feb '7 barley Ukraine barley other #4 4% 4% 3% 4/5 5/6 6/7 Feb '7 corn Ukraine corn other #6 7% % 9% 4/5 5/6 6/7 Feb '7 wheat Ukraine wheat other 2
Corn, mln MT Corn in dynamics CBOT prices, USD/MT Production Beginning Stocks Imports Total Supply Exports Ending Stocks 223 2 42 22 2 54 Harvesting in South America Harvesting all corn regions Harvesting in South America Harvesting all corn regions Harvesting in South America 36 33 43 Ukrainian market 75 6-25 2 963-4 22 54-37 2 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 4..25 5..25 6..25 7..25 8..25 9..25..25..25 2..25..26 2..26 3..26 4..26 5..26 6..26 7..26 8..26 9..26..26..26 2..26..27 2..27 3..27 4..27 7 54 FOB Ukr, USD/MT CPT Ukr, USD/MT 4/5 5/6 6/7 Apr '7 Sources: USDA, State Statistics Service of Ukraine 3
Corn, mln MT Production vs 57 48 385 346 225 22 The largest importers 5 5 4 5 4 3 9 9 9 8 8 7 United States Country Country China Country Japan Mexico European Union Korea Egypt Iran Vietnam 32 4 67 94 Brazil Country Country 58 6 European Union Country Netherlans Italy Iran Spain Main Ukrainian buyers in 26 22 26 29 39 23 7 9 28 Egypt China Argentina Ukraine,,5,,5 2, 2,5 3, Country Country Country Country Sources: USDA, State Statistics Service of Ukraine 4
Wheat, mln MT Wheat in dynamics Harvesting new crop MATIFF prices USD/MT Production Beginning Stocks Imports Total Supply Exports Ending Stocks lot of cheap corn+ Winter crop expectation lot of cheap corn+ Winter crop expectation 28 64 242 73 252 8 lot of cheap corn+ Winter crop expectation Harvesting new crop 82 23 69 4..25 5..25 6..25 7..25 8..25 9..25..25..25 2..25..26 2..26 3..26 4..26 5..26 6..26 7..26 8..26 9..26..26..26 2..26..27 2..27 3..27 4..27 Ukrainian market 95 95 28 242 728 735 75 85 75 65 55 45 35 25 5 76 57 4/5 4..25 5..25 6..25 7..25 8..25 9..25..25..25 2..25..26 2..26 3..26 4..26 5..26 6..26 7..26 8..26 9..26..26..26 2..26..27 2..27 3..27 4..27 FOB Ukraine, USD/MT CPT Ukraine, USD/MT Sources: USDA, State Statistics Service of Ukraine 5
Wheat, mln MT 35 Production vs 27 2 2 The largest importers 6 45 European Union 3 29 China 9 8 8 7 7 87 87 India 2 28 56 63 United States 28 26 6 73 Russian Federation 25 6 Australia Korea India Bangladesh Egypt Indonesia Algeria Brazil Main Ukrainian buyers in 26 Thailand 22 2 7 7 Indonesia Egypt Canada Ukraine 5 5 2 25 Sources: USDA, State Statistics Service of Ukraine 6
Barley, mln MT Barley in dynamics Barley world, USD/MT Production Beginning Stocks Imports Total Supply Exports Ending Stocks Area Harvested 48 5 24 24 27 3 5 24 29 99 2 96 Barley BCE EXW Barley France FOB 24 24 24 Ukrainian Market, USD/MT 47 48 42 6/7 Apr '7 5/6 4/5 2 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 Sources: USDA, State Statistics Service of Ukraine Barley, FOB Ukr Barley, CPT Ukr 7
Barley, mln MT Production vs The largest importers European Union Australia 6 5 2 2 Japan Iran China, Peoples Republic of Saudi Arabia Ukraine Russian Federation Main Ukrainian buyers in 26 Algeria Jordan Argentina 5/7 6/7 Apr '7 Canada China Libya SA 5 5 2 25 Sources: USDA, State Statistics Service of Ukraine 8
SBM, mln MT Production vs 9 2 The largest importers 69 64 China 4 4 United States Production Production Export 5 5 4 5 3 32 33 35 Argentina Production Export SBM in dynamics 5 5 3 32 Brazil Production Export European Union Vietnam Indonesia Prices compearing Production Beginning Stocks Imports Total Supply Exports Ending Stocks 3 64 2 65 2 67 279 29 34 3 2 28 26 229 SBM EXW Ukr, USD/MT SBM Argentina FOB, USD/MT -6-62 -64 Sources: USDA, State Statistics Service of Ukraine 9
SFM, mln MT Production vs The largest importers 3 4 Ukraine Russian Federation,5,6,8,9 Belarus Turkey 6/7 Apr '7 5/6 European Union European Union Argentina SFM in dynamics 46 Prices, USD/MT 4 36 7 27 6 6 24 23 3 26 2 6 8 7 6 6/7 Apr '7 5/6 4/5 SFM, FOB Ukr SBM Argentina FOB Production Beginning Stocks Imports Total Supply Exports Ending Stocks Sources: USDA, State Statistics Service of Ukraine
Oils, mln MT World Consumption Prices, USD/MT 85 8 75 7 65 6 55 SFO, FOB Ukr SBO, FCA Ukr SBO CBOT SFO 5 5 5 6 SBO 5 6 8 9 Ukraine 5/6 6/7 Apr '7 5/6 6/7 Apr '7 5/6 6/7 Apr '7 China USA Argentina Main Importers 26 vs 25 2 Main Importers 26 vs 25 4 4 4/5 5/6 6/7*,9,9,7,9 olive oil rapeseed oil soybean oil sunflower oil Sources: USDA, State Statistics Service of Ukraine China, Peoples Republic of Turkey EU India China Algeria India
Ukraine, KPI corn 3 28497 7 64 64 62 9 25 22838 23328 6 57 8 296 949 5 7 2 48 67 7557 43 45 5623 6 4 5 5 953 3 3 4 767 783 2 3 3848 44 2 5 2 25 2 2 22 23 24 25 All sown area, ha Export, MT Production, MT Yield, ce/ha wheat barley 8975 998 8485 6872 25 2 9 4729 2 229 946 8288 3 7562 3 6936 23 2 4629 466 257 2337 2 25 2 2 22 23 24 25 All sown area, ha Export, MT Production, MT Yield, ce/ha 35 3 25 2 5 5 3 4 39 45 25 2 5 2 97 29 8699 27 685 34 22324 28 859 5763 34 7736 22279 544 244 3452 4 26532 35 3 25 2 5 5 486 465 5 2 25 2 2 22 23 24 25 All sown area, ha Export, MT Production, MT Yield, ce/ha 2
Ukraine, KPI soya 3882 393 8 6 63 67 2774 4 2264 24 299 2 68 48 489 675 8 94 6 63 442 4 64 5 6 2 7 2 22 8 2 2 25 2 2 22 23 24 25 All sown area, ha Export, MT SBO Export, MT Production, MT Yield, ce/ha SBO Production, MT sunflower 2 22 22 5 9 8 8 34 7 8 5 867 8387 2 3 6772 6 44 476 384 299 377 343 375 4 3457 4339 359 3939 38 2 973 32 2689 267 4 46 282 7 74 48 2 25 2 2 22 23 24 25 All sown area, ha Export, MT SFO Export, MT 23 8 3 8 3-2 Production, MT SFO Production, MT Yield, ce/ha 3
Ukraine 26 geography 6,53 ml t OR $ 2,5 Bl Egypt+Mexico Wheat TOTAL 35,6 ml t or $ 3,8 Bl 4,638 ml t OR $ 2,26 Bl >EU OR Mexico Corn 4,5 ml t OR $,62 Bl China Barley 4
Favourable geographic location Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t 3, - 5, m/t Egypt Spain East Med Saudi Arabia China Ukraine 3-3 9-4 7-25 8-26 26-27 Brazil 24-25 24-25 n/a 37-38 22-23 France/Germany 24-25 n/a 32-33 34-35 n/a U.S. 9-2 22-23 32-33 n/a 26-27 Argentina 23-24 27-28 n/a 43-44 28-29 Source: UCAB, Hammersmithltd 5
Seasonal price fluctuation CPT Ukr aine Forecast 27 Areas of winter grain crops Year ha Wheat, ha including Barley, ha 26 7 73 6 2 882 25 7 23 5 989 983 63 58 5 52 54 53 56 54 47 42 feb march apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec corn FW MW 6
Agriculture sector potential According to years projection plan, Ukraine is expected to increase yields further among all the key agriculture products 9% Ukraine 25 Ukraine 225 32% 6,6 Ukrainian grain, m t 38 34 29 53 46 39 57 Forecasted longterm run-rate 46 63 64 6 66 8 3,9 4,2 5, 5% 9% 2,7 2,8 2,2 2,4 Wheat Maize Other coarse grains Oilseeds 25 27 29 2 23 25 22 Average yield projections (25-225) t/ha Ukrainian grain volumes, m t Australia United States Canada Russian Federation Ukraine,8 9,7 6, 6, 4,6 3,8 3,2 3, 2,8,9 2,4 2, 2,3,2,4 3 2 9 Wheat Corn Other grains 25 2 3 2 3 4 23 22 32 35 Wheat Corn Oilseeds 2 22 24 26 28 2 22 24 Source: State Statistics Service of Ukraine, OECD-FAO, UCAB 7