Enel Green Power and the Renewable Energies Scenario Francesco Starace - CEO Enel Green Power IEA Working Party on Renewable Energy Technologies - The Role of Renewables in the Energy Transformation: The Need for Innovation in Technology, Business Models and Policy
Global Energy Demand 1
Renewables Market Growth Changes in Power Production Mix Until 2035 Power Supply in TWh Coal Gas Nuclear Renewables China India US EU Middle East Africa -1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 Emerging countries contribute for over 60% of the world s power generation increase until 2035 Renewables foreseen to account for ~50% of new production Source: IEA, WEO 2013 (2011 base-year) 2
RES Energy Investments 2004-2013 Investments by Technology Global Annual investments in clean energy ($ bn) Breakdown by Technology CAGR 2004-2013:+19% +21% 318-10% 286-11% +34% 262 254 +1% +17% +44% 195 196 167 +45% Smart Technologies Marine Small Hydro Geothermal 55 +46% 80 116 Biomass Solar Wind 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Increasing investment efficiency was mainly triggered by lower relative capex for Wind and PV In particular, PV global capacity additions grew to 36GW in 2013 vs. 32GW in 2012 Note: Clean Energy investments includes corporate and government R&D, investment in Smart Technologies (i.e. smart grid, storage, electric vehicles, IEA efficiency Working and Party digital on Renewable energy projects) Energy Technologies and investment in all renewable technologies Paris, Source: March Bloomberg 25 th 2014 New Energy Finance, Global Trends in Clean Energy Investment, Jan 2014 3
RES Energy Investments: a Growing Industry Expected Worldwide Growth By technology By geography Technology Installed base Installed base Additional Capacity 2012 Additional Capacity 2013 Expected Growth CAGR 2013-20 Investments Area Installed base Installed base 2020 Min 2020 Max Expected Growth CAGR 13-20 2012 (GW) 2013 (GW) (GW) (GW) % Min Max 2013 ( bn) 2012 (GW) 2013 (GW) (GW) (GW) Min Max Hydro ~ 1,063 ~ 1,092 +28 +29 +3% 3% 3% ~58 North America 265 276 +4% 371 579 4% 11% Wind ~283 ~319 +44 +35 +13% 9% 14% ~59 Europe 498 529 +6% 667 1,030 3% 10% Biomass ~76 ~80 +5 +4 +6% 8% 29% ~9 Latin America 179 185 +3% 230 330 3% 9% Solar ~102 ~138 +32 +36 +35% 11% 20% ~84 Africa 27 27 +2% 56 110 11% 22% Geothermal ~12 ~12 +1 +1 +6% 7% 13% ~2 Asia 566 624 +10% 1,048 1,111 8% 9% TOTAL ~1,535 ~1,640 ~109 ~105 6.9% 5.4% 9.8% ~ 212 bn TOTAL ~1,535 ~1,640 ~2,371 ~ 3,160 5.4% 9.8% All renewable technologies and regions confirm their strong potential Investments in small-scale projects accounted for ~ 46bn During 2013, total R&D investments amounted to ~ 22bn IEA Source: Working EPIA, Party GWEC, on Renewable BNEF, Energy IEA Medium Technologies Term Market Outlook, EGP Estimate for 2013; WEO 2013 New Policies scenario (2020 min); industry reports/mckinsey, EPIA (2020 Paris, max). March Note: 25 Investments th 2014 based on BNEF data except for hydro figures estimated assuming an average capex equal to 2.0 /w; US$/ fx rate assumed at 1.3.
Enel Green Power - FY 2013 Results Global Leadership in Renewables Development 1 North America Capacity: 1,683 MW Production: 5.4 TWh Technologies: Iberia&Latam Capacity: 3,072 MW Production: 8.8 TWh Technologies: 1 Italy&Europe Capacity: 4,128 MW Production: 15.3 TWh Technologies: Capacity by technology Production by technology 9% 29% 58% 3% 1% 2 2 Total = 8.9 GW Geo Hydro Wind Biomass Solar 41% 19% 1% 2% 2 1 37% Total = 29.5 TWh 1.Including co-generation 5
Increasing Diversification to Mitigate Risk Increasing geographical and technological diversification lowering the concentration index* N. Of Clusters Country/Technology (in 16 Countries) 2010 2013 29 35 + 1 0.25 0.15 Highly Concentrated Moderately Concentrated Diversified Moderately concentrated 0.17 0.15 0.13 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.08-0.01 0 Highly Diversified Diversified 2010 2013 2017 Current footprint New countries * Calculation based on Herfindahl-Hirschman Index ( HHI ) 6
Self-funded Growth 1 ( bn) ~8.4 ~6.1 ~1.5 ~1.1 Cash-flow from 2 operations Capex Interests Dividends 2.7x Net debt/ebitda 1.9x Solid and sustainable growth 1. 2013-2017 cumulated cash-flow 2. Calculated as net income + D&A - income from equity investments + interest charges not recurrings + Δ net working capital 7
Enel Green Power s Key Strategic Considerations Emerging markets as a focus of growth Increasing diversification to mitigate risk Striving for operating excellence Self-funded growth and central capital allocation Stability of new projects IRRs 8