Welcome Future Energy Scenarios 218 Electricity Supply Andy Dobbie & team System Operator
FES 218
What we will cover today Future Energy Scenarios (FES) 218 overview Key insights Overview of installed capacity Capacity projections for some of the different technologies Generation output Interconnectors and storage How to stay involved Q&A
Prosperity Level of decentralisation FES 217 to FES 218 Consumer Evolution Power Community Two Degrees Renewables Steady Progression State Slow Two Degrees Progression Speed of decarbonisation Green ambition Prosperity
Key insights Low carbon technologies will grow at pace Markets will need to adapt New business models
Installed capacity (GW) Installed generation capacity 3 25 2 15 1 5 217 23 25 65% 44% 37% 56% 45% 31% 28% 4% 27% 217 CR TD SP CE CR TD SP CE Interconnectors Biomass CCS Waste Gas Coal Hydro Marine Nuclear Offshore wind Onshore wind Solar Other thermal Other renewables Storage Vehicle to Grid
Capacity (GW) Nuclear 2 16 12 Reduction in nuclear capacity during 22s and 23s as existing plant close prior to new plants coming online 8 4 New projects come online after 23 including small modular reactors in Consumer Evolution 215 22 225 23 235 24 245 25 Community Renewables Consumer Evolution Steady Progression Two Degrees
Capacity (GW) Offshore wind 5 4 Offshore wind could potentially reach 3 GW by 23 in Two Degrees 3 2 1 Offshore wind grows in all scenarios based on assumptions of falling costs and prospects of a sector deal 215 22 225 23 235 24 245 25 Community Renewables Consumer Evolution Steady Progression Two Degrees
Capacity (GW) Onshore wind 6 5 4 3 2 Growth of onshore wind after 23 is assumed to be due to smaller-scale, distribution-connected projects in Community Renewables and Consumer Evolution 1 There is no decrease in capacity as repowering is assumed in all scenarios 215 22 225 23 235 24 245 25 Community Renewables Consumer Evolution Steady Progression Two Degrees
Capacity (GW) Solar 7 6 5 4 3 Domestic uptake of solar with storage drives rapid growth in Community Renewables 2 1 Further growth in the 22s and 23s driven by cost-parity assumptions 215 22 225 23 235 24 245 25 Community Renewables Consumer Evolution Steady Progression Two Degrees
Capacity (GW) Gas 5 4 3 2 Capacity market provides greater certainty to existing stations in the shorter-term 1 Gas continues to play a key role in providing backup generation and flexibility in all scenarios 215 22 225 23 235 24 245 25 Community Renewables Consumer Evolution Steady Progression Two Degrees
Capacity (GW) Carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS) 16 12 8 CCUS is assumed to be associated with hydrogen production via steam methane reforming in Two Degrees allowing it to operate more flexibly in the power market 4 215 22 225 23 235 24 245 25 Community Renewables Consumer Evolution Steady Progression Two Degrees
Annual output (TWh) Carbon intensity (gco 2 / kwh) Generation output 5 4 3 2 1 Community Renewables Renewable generation accounts for more than 75% of total output by 23 3 24 18 12 6 215 22 225 23 235 24 245 25 Interconnectors Biomass CCS Waste Gas Coal Hydro Marine Nuclear Offshore Wind Onshore Wind Solar Other Thermal Other Renewables
Annual output (TWh) Carbon Intensity (gco 2 /kwh) Generation output 5 4 3 2 1 Steady Progression Decarbonisation is slower in this scenario with around 6% renewable generation by 23 3 24 18 12 6 215 22 225 23 235 24 245 25 Interconnectors Biomass CCS Waste Gas Coal Hydro Marine Nuclear Offshore Wind Onshore Wind Solar Other Thermal Other Renewables
Growth of flexibility in 23 GW 5 GW 1 GW 15 GW 2 GW 25 GW Interconnectors 217 CE TD Battery storage 217 SP CR TD Large-scale storage CE 217 CR SP TD Vehicle to grid CE 217 SP CR TD
Growth of flexibility in 25 GW 5 GW 1 GW 15 GW 2 GW 25 GW Interconnectors 217 CE TD Battery storage 217 SP CR Large-scale storage 217 CE SP TD Vehicle to grid 217 SP CR
Capacity (GW) Interconnectors 25 2 15 1 5 Three new projects secured capacity market agreements in 221/22 215 22 225 23 235 24 245 25 Community Renewables Two Degrees Steady Progression Consumer Evolution
Net annual flows (TWh) Interconnector flows 8 4 Interconnectors respond to balance renewables across Europe in later years Imports -4 Expect net imports in shorterterm driven by GB carbon price and new projects Exports -8 215 22 225 23 235 24 245 25 Community Renewables Consumer Evolution Steady Progression Two Degrees
Capacity (GW) Electricity storage 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 High growth in 24s in Community Renewables due to colocation with solar and wind combined with increased demand Growth of storage in 23s driven by need for flexibility in all scenarios. 215 22 225 23 235 24 245 25 Community Renewables Consumer Evolution Steady Progression Two Degrees
Future Events Webinars FES 218 Overview Gas Demand Electricity Demand Gas Supply Electricity Supply Dates Tuesday 17 th July, 1:-11:am Wednesday 18 th July, 1:-11:am Wednesday 18 th July, 2:-3:pm Thursday 19 th July, 1:-11:am Thursday 19 th July, 2:-3:pm To join please visit: http://fes.nationalgrid.com/webinars/
How to stay involved FES 218 launched on 12 July FES 218 webinars during w/c 16 July Stakeholder engagement for FES 219 from autumn 218 Keep up-to-date via our website and newsletter
218 Future Energy Scenarios Questions
Thank you for your time Stay in touch: fes@nationalgrid.com For more information visit: www.fes.nationalgrid.com System Operator