GLOBAL GEOTHERMAL MARKET OUTLOOK MarketsandMarkets sales@marketsandmarkets.com www.marketsandmarkets.com
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1 MARKET OVERVIEW 1.1 UPCOMING GEOTHERMAL POWER PROJECTS With the growth in geothermal energy sector and technologies, around 175 power generating units are expected to come online by 2015. The unit capacity ranges from 300kW to 490MW. The following figure shows the major countries involved in geothermal project development. FIGURE 1 MAJOR COUNTRIES BY NEW GEOTHERMAL POWER PROJECTS 25 20 No. of projects 15 10 5 0 Iceland Indonesia Philippines Australia Chile New Zealand Canada Nicaragua U.S. Argentina Kenya Austria Ethiopia France Spain Turkey Dominica El Salvador Fiji Hungary Italy Nevis Russia United Kingdom MarketsandMarkets 3
1.2 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY, BY ELECTRICITY Power plants need steam to rotate turbines, which in turn generate electricity. Geothermal power plants utilize steam or hot water from hot water reservoirs generally called as production wells found by drilling deep under the earth s crust. Till May 2010, the global geothermal power production in terms of installed capacity accounted for 10,700 MW. The following pie chart shows the global geothermal electricity installed capacity by geography. FIGURE 2 GEOTHERMAL ELECTRICITY INSTALLED CAPACITY, BY GEOGRAPHY (2010) Europe xx% ROW xx% Americas xx% APAC xx% Geothermal electricity generation requires active geothermal fields with source temperature above 120oC however, in the recent years with the development of organic Rankine cycle; the fields with source temperature of 90 oc are also being utilized for power production. The countries located on pacific ring of fire and with high tectonic activities have active geothermal fields. The following table gives the list of top countries by installed capacity. MarketsandMarkets 4
1.3 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY, BY DIRECT USE Direct use of geothermal energy uses hot water from production wells for heating spaces and drying agricultural crops. The hot water is also used in industries, green houses, fish farming, spas, and aquaculture. Globally, the installed capacity of geothermal energy for direct use accounts for around 41,160 MW, out of which 11,800 MW for direct use was utilized in 2009. Conventional radiators or underwater heating systems are commonly used for direct applications, whereas geothermal source heat pumps are used for low geothermal source temperatures. The following figure shows the breakup of direct use applications on the basis of installed capacity. FIGURE 3 GLOBAL DIRECT USE APPLICATIONS, BY INSTALLED CAPACITY (2010) Geothermal Heat Pumps Bathing Swimming Spa Space heating Greenhouse heating Cooling and snow melting Agricultural drying Aquaculture Others Industrial use The above figure shows the approximate distribution for the same. The capacity factor for utilizing geothermal energy for direct use is very low (around xx%) due to under utilization of the installed capacities. The below pie chart shows the share of geothermal direct use in terms of global installed capacity of 50,500 MW. MarketsandMarkets 5
1.4 GEOTHERMAL HEAT PUMP MARKET Geothermal heat pumps, as discussed earlier, have lower life cycle costs due to less operating and maintenance costs with negligible carbon emissions. The only obstacles for their installation are availability of geothermal resources, high initial costs and non-availability of land. Favorable weather conditions requiring heating and cooling needs, year round, give a boost to the GHP market. These systems serving year round needs, generate more energy savings as compared to the systems being utilized only for heating/cooling requirements. The installed capacities for geothermal heat pumps are approximated as xx% of total direct use installed capacities. The following figure shows the installed capacity in Giga Watts for geothermal heat pumps in different regions with estimation for the year 2015. FIGURE 4 GLOBAL GEOTHERMAL HEAT PUMP INSTALLED CAPACITY (2008 2015) 70 60 Installed capacity (GW) 50 40 30 20 10 0 2008 2009 2010 2015 Americas Europe APAC ROW MarketsandMarkets 6
1.5 OPERATING AND MAINTENANCE COST Operating and maintenance cost of the plant range from $xxx/kwh to $xxx/kwh, depending upon capacity factor and plant utilization. The power plants usually run for xx% of the time. Overutilization is restricted due to increase in maintenance cost. The higher running time and utilization is justified for plants with greater capacity factors and premium priced electricity purchase agreements. The following chart shows contribution of operating and maintenance cost depending upon type of ECS employed. FIGURE 5 BREAK UP OF O&M COST, BY TYPE OF ECS 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Binary cycle Flash steam Dry steam Drilling Field development Power plant Royalty MarketsandMarkets 7
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