Gas Industry Perspectives on Methane Emissions CH4 Connections Erica Bowman Vice President, Research and Policy Analysis September 23, 2014
Context: Abundant Supply Due to technological advancements in the past five years, U.S. natural gas has become both abundant and affordable.
Context: Price Affordable Projections 2011$/MMBtu $14 $12 $10 Henry Hub Spot Natural Gas Price Historic Projected $8 $6 $4 $2 CERA 2012 WoodMac2012 AEO 2014 ER ICF 2013 $0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook: 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 Henry Hub Spot prices (Actual prices: 2000 to 2012) Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook: 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 Henry Hub Spot prices (Actual prices: 2000 to 2012)
U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions: 2012 CO2 equivalent basis Fluorinated Gases 3% N2O 6% CH4 9% CO2 82% Methane emissions comprise 9% of the total U.S. GHG emissions. Overall, methane emissions from natural gas systems contribute 2% towards total U.S. GHG emissions. Source: EPA Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory for 2012. Released March, 2014
Million Metric Tons U.S. Methane Sources Methane Sources, All Years in 2012 GHG Inventory 700 600 500 400 Many sources of methane emissions exist including enteric fermentation, natural gas systems, landfills, coal mining and manure management. 300 200 100 0 1990 2005 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Other Manure Management Coal Mining Landfills Enteric Fermentation Natural Gas Systems In 2012, enteric fermentation surpassed natural gas systems as the largest source of methane emissions in the United States. Source: EPA GHG Inventory for 2012, released April 2014.
Bcf/d Million Metric Tonnes CO2e Production and Emissions Natural Gas Gross Production & Natural Gas Systems Methane Emissions 90 160 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 155 150 145 140 135 130 Natural gas gross production has increased 37% since 1990 while methane emissions from natural gas systems have decreased over 17% since 1990. 10 125 0 1990 2005 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 120 Production (Bcf/d) Methane Emissions Source: EIA, EPA 2014
Overview of Ongoing Federal Efforts Related to Methane from Oil & Gas Activities EPA DOE BLM Oil & Gas NSPS finalized in 2012 Reduced emission completions required on all hydraulically fractured wells beginning January 1, 2015 Regulated storage tanks constructed between August 23, 2011 and April 12, 2013 must be in compliance by April 15, 2015 Methane White Papers Released for public comment April 15, 2014, with peer review comments posted in August 2014 Natural Gas STAR Gold Proposed framework released May 8, 2014, with stakeholder comment due September 30, 2014 Methane Roundtables Stakeholder roundtables held between March and July to identify and develop strategies to reduce methane emissions from the natural gas value chain Onshore Order 9: In late 2014, BLM has announced it will draft a proposed rule to reduce flaring and venting of methane from production on Federal and Indian lands
EPA Clean Power Plan Analysis: Net Methane Emissions EPA found that net upstream methane emissions from coal and natural gas systems and CO2 emissions from flaring of methane will likely decrease under the proposed guidelines. EPA also found that changes in upstream methane emissions were small relative to the changes in direct emissions from power plants. Option 1 State Emissions (TgCO2e) CH4 from Natural Gas Systems CH4 from Coal Mining CO2 from NG flaring 2020-16.1 5.1 0.4-10.6 2025-19.3 2.6 0.2-16.4 2030-19.1-1.0-0.3-20.5 Option 1 Regional Emissions (TgCO2e) CH4 from Natural Gas Systems Total CH4 + CO2 CH4 from Coal Mining CO2 from NG flaring 2020-14.7 4.4 0.4-9.9 2025-18.2 2.1 0.1-16.0 2030-17.7-1.7-0.5-19.8 Total CH4 + CO2 Source: EPA, Regulatory Impact Assessment for Clean Power Plan, Table 3A-6
Natural Gas Lifecycle Emissions: LNG for Power Generation NETL Life cycle GHG Emissions for Natural Gas and Coal Power in Europe NETL Life cycle GHG Emissions for Natural Gas and Coal Power in Asia Source: NETL, Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Perspective on Exporting Liquefied Natural Gas from the United States, May 2014.
Natural Gas Lifecycle CO 2 Emissions: Power Generation Source: DOE NETL: Department of Energy National Energy Technology Laboratory, October 2011; CMU: Carnegie Mellon University, July 2011; DBCCA: Deutsche Bank Climate Change Advisors, 2011;
Conclusion Our abundant and affordable gas supply is driving increased demand growth. Even in the midst of this growth, the gas industry has reduced methane emissions. Continued reduction of methane emissions is recognized by industry and is manageable.
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