The Outlook for Energy: A View to 23 Scott A. Nauman Corporate Planning Manager Institute of Medicine Washington, D.C. November 29, 27 This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein (and in Item 1 of ExxonMobil s latest report on Form 1-K). This material is not to be reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation.
27 Energy Outlook Basis Energy Supply/Demand 35 3 25 2 15 Other 1 Coal Gas 5 Oil 198 25 23 Energy Demand Outlook Detailed buildup by country and end-use sector Links energy use to economic drivers Incorporates efficiency improvements Considers trends, economics, and supply by fuel type Reflects assessment of potential policy initiatives Oil & Gas Supply Outlook Incorporates ultimate recoverable resource estimates Models production profiles for all countries or regions Considers economics and ongoing advances in technology
Global Economics and Energy GDP Trillion 25$ 1 198 25 25 23 2.9% 3.% Energy Intensity BOE/25$K GDP 3-1.% -1.6% Energy Demand 35 1.8% 1.3% 3 75 2 25 2 5 15 25 1 1 5 198 25 23 198 25 23 198 25 23
World Energy Demand By Sector Fuel 35 3 25 25 23 1.3%.7% 1.7% 2 1.2%.9% Res/Comm 15 Other Coal Industrial 1 1.7% 5 Gas Transportation 1.5% 1.2% Oil Power Generation 198 25 23 By Sector - 23 Other Industry Res / Comm Power Generation Chemicals Heavy Manufacturing Transportation Transportation ~ 324
Transportation
Global Transportation Demand 5 198-25 2.2% 4 3 Marine Rail Commercial 2.4% 2 1 Aviation Heavy Duty Vehicles Light Duty Vehicles Personal 2.% 198 1985 199 1995 2 25
Global Commercial Transportation By Sector 5 198-25 2.4% Growth 198-25 1 5 4 3 2 Rail -3.% 1.7 % 2.4% Marine 3.3% Aviation Heavy Duty Vehicles Commercial HDV AVI MAR RAIL -5 Demand versus GDP 3 1 Light Duty Vehicles 2 1 198 25 2 25 3 35 4 45 GDP (Trillion 25$)
Global Commercial Transportation 5 25 23 2.3% 4.9% 3 2.6% 2 Marine Rail 2.2% Commercial 1 Aviation Heavy Duty Vehicles 2.2% 198 199 2 21 22 23
Global Personal Transportation By Sector 5 198-25 4 3 2 1 Light Duty Vehicles 2.% 198 25
Light Duty Vehicle Penetration Linked to GDP Vehicles per 1 people 1 199 to 25 OECD U.S. 1 South Korea 1 Non-OECD China 1.1 1 1 1 1 GDP per capita (25$)
Global Light Duty Vehicle Fleet By Region 25 Millions 8 6 Non-OECD 2-25 2.6% 5.2% Brazil Russia China Rest of Non OECD 4 2.1% Rest of OECD United States 2 OECD Germany Japan 2 25 ~ 7 Million Vehicles
U.S. Light Duty Vehicles Fuel Economy New Vehicles Vehicle Weight Efficiency MPG 5 4 Avg. Cars & Trucks Cars Trucks Pounds 5 4 Ton-MPG 5 198-25 4 1.3% 3 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 1975 1985 1995 25 Source: U.S. EPA 1975 1985 1995 25 1975 1985 1995 25
U.S. Light Duty Vehicles Comparison with EIA New Vehicle Fuel Economy Miles per Gallon 4 XOM Light Duty Fuels Demand MBD 12 ~ 4 MBD 2 EIA 1 198 25 23 Vehicles/1 people 1 8 6 4 2 198 25 23 8 6 4 2 198 199 2 21 22 23 EIA Source: AEO27
Ethanol United States Ethanol Production 2 Corn Utilization % Corn to Ethanol 4 1 ~13B Gallons ~16B Gallons 2 26 ~5B Gallons 2 21 22 23 2 21 22 23
Ethanol United States Ethanol Production Light Duty Fuel Demand 2 1 Ethanol 1 ~13B Gallons ~16B Gallons 5 Gasoline/Diesel ~5B Gallons 2 21 22 23 2 21 22 23
Global Transportation Demand OECD 35 25-23.6% Non-OECD 35 3.1% 3 1.2% 3 25 Other Transport 25 2 1.7% 2 3.6% 15 Heavy Duty Vehicles 15 1 -.5% 1 2.8% 5 Light Duty Vehicles 198 25 23 5 3.4% 198 25 23
World Energy Demand & Supply 35 3 25 25 23 1.3%.7% 1.5% 2.% 2 15 1 5 1.2%.9% Res/Comm Renewables Nuclear 1.7% Industrial Coal Gas Transportation 1.5% 1.2% Power Oil Generation 198 199 2 21 22 23
Liquids Supply & Demand 12 25 23 1.3% 9 Liquids Demand ~32 ~38 Biofuels ~47 6 OPEC Crude ~27 NGL, OPEC Condensate, Other 3 Non-OPEC Oil Sands Non-OPEC Crude & Condensate 198 199 2 21 22 23
Summary Global energy demand projected to grow at 1.3% per year Underpinned by economic and population growth Mitigated by efficiency gains Power generation represents more than 4% of demand increase Growth concentrated in developing countries Coal maintains highest fuel share, though gas has largest growth Nuclear power contribution grows, primarily post 22 Transportation sector demand growth slows over time Increase in new light duty vehicle fuel economy helps offset impact of growing fleet Biofuels supply increases but limited by cost and scale considerations Demand growth and fuel mix will lead to increased CO 2 emissions
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U.S. - Corn Ethanol Production Plants > 3 Million Bu/Yr Ethanol Plants Source: National Renewable Corn Fuels Growers Association Association
Ethanol United States Ethanol Production 3 Production Cost 25$/gallon* 4 2 3 1 2 1 $6/BBL $3/BBL United States 2 21 22 23 Sugar Corn Cellulose * Energy Adjusted
Ethanol U.S. and Brazil Ethanol Production 3 Production Cost 25$/gallon* 4 2 3 1 Brazil 2 1 $6/BBL $3/BBL United States 2 21 22 23 Sugar Corn Cellulose * Energy Adjusted
Global Biofuel Volumes Production Volume 3 Light Duty Fuel Demand 3 2 Biodiesel Other Ethanol 2 Biofuels 1 Brazil 1 Gasoline/Diesel United States 2 21 22 23 2 21 22 23
World Energy Demand Primary Energy Supplies Primary Energy 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Oil 25-23 Renewables Nuclear Coal Gas 1.3% 1.5% 2.%.9% 1.7% 1.2% 198 25 23 Renewables 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Wind, Solar & Biofuels Hydro/Geo Biomass/Other 1.5% 8.7% 2.%.7% 198 25 23 Wind, Solar & Biofuels 6 5 4 3 2 1 Solar Biofuels Wind 9.9% 8.7% 1.5% 7.6% 198 25 23
World Energy & CO 2 Emissions OECD 2 1 25 23.5% 2 2.% Res/Comm Other Res/Comm Industrial Other Coal Transportation Gas Power Generation Oil 198 25 23 Demand by Sector Fuel Non-OECD 1 Coal Industrial Transportation Gas Oil Power Generation 198 25 23 Billion Tonnes CO 2 Billion Tonnes CO 2 3 3.1% 1.9% 2 Energy Related 2 Res/Comm Res/Comm CO 2 Emissions Industrial Coal 1 Industrial Coal 1 Transportation Transportation Gas Gas Power Generation Oil Power Generation Oil 198 25 23 198 25 23
Global CO 2 Emissions Energy Related CO 2 Emissions Billion Tonnes 4 25 23 1.2% 3 2 1 198 25 23
Global CO 2 Emissions Energy Related CO 2 Emissions Sensitivities Billion Tonnes 4 25 23 1.2% Double biofuels growth through cellulosic ethanol 3 1.1% 2 1 198 25 23
Global CO 2 Emissions Energy Related CO 2 Emissions Sensitivities Billion Tonnes 4 3 25 23 1.2% 1.1% Double biofuels growth through cellulosic ethanol Double rate of improvement of new car efficiency 2 1 198 25 23
Global CO 2 Emissions Energy Related CO 2 Emissions Sensitivities Billion Tonnes 4 3 2 25 23 1.2% 1.% Double biofuels growth through cellulosic ethanol Double rate of improvement of new car efficiency Replace ½ of coal growth with nuclear / CCS 1 198 25 23
Global CO 2 Emissions Energy Related CO 2 Emissions Sensitivities Billion Tonnes 4 3 2 25 23 1.2%.5% Double biofuels growth through cellulosic ethanol Double rate of improvement of new car efficiency Replace ½ of coal growth with nuclear / CCS Retire coal plants at 4 years and replace with nuclear / CCS 1 198 25 23
Conclusions Economic progress, especially in developing countries, will drive global energy demand higher despite substantial efficiency gains Oil, natural gas and coal are indispensable to meeting this energy demand, even with rapid growth in renewables Significantly impacting CO 2 emissions requires global participation, step changes in energy efficiency, technology gains and massive investment