Industry on the Move - What's Next? What will the changes in energy prices mean to industry in South Louisiana? Event Sponsored by Regions Bank and 1012 Industry Report May 5, 2015 David E. Dismukes, Ph.D. Center for Energy Studies Louisiana State University
Overview Industry Changes Unconventional development continues to dramatically change the U.S. economic landscape. U.S. has already moved from being an anticipated importer to major exporter of natural gas. U.S. has moved being the largest crude oil producer and will likely become an active and considerable world trading participant (on the supply side). Impacts go far beyond domestic energy resource independence and has large manufacturing implications. U.S. has the ability (potential) to enter into a new era of economic prosperity. 2
Overview Understanding Recent Changes Recent fall in crude oil prices should not come as a big surprise. However, speed and magnitude of the decrease is stunning. Factors destined to shift the market: (1) End of easy monetary policy (quantitative easing). (2) Markets are re-assessing crude oil demand outlook Continued U.S. structural change (increased efficiency/transportation fuel switching). Japanese/European economic contraction. BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) slow-down/contraction. (3) Trader realization/rationalization of stability and continuity of U.S. unconventional supplies. (4) Saudi unwillingness to catch the falling knife. 3
Overview Take Aways Likely to continue to see near-term pricing volatility. Market having a tough time processing information. Lower prices will reduce upstream activity, but a slow recovery is very likely. The genie is out of the bottle, U.S. shale production is a relatively known and secure resource opportunity, if anything, low prices are the market s best support for that belief. U.S. producers in survival mode: reduce costs; increase capital & operating efficiencies; and increase well productivity. ( the best solution for low prices is low prices ) Ultimately will see a turn around, and likely one that sees greater supply diversity and less OPEC supply dominance. 4
Unconventional Natural Gas 5
Natural Gas Domestic Shale Gas Basins and Plays Unlike conventional resources, shale plays (natural gas, liquids, and crudes) are located almost ubiquitously throughout the U.S. and are the primary reason for the decrease in overall and regional natural gas prices. Source: Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy 6
Natural Gas Changes in Reserves and Production Natural gas production and reserves are at levels not seen since the 1970s and both U.S. natural gas production and reserves are now at an all time recorded peak. 400 30 U.S. Dry Natural Gas Proved Reserves (Tcf) 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 2012 reserve estimates mark the first decline in 14 years. 25 20 15 10 5 U.S. Natural Gas Marketed Production (Tcf) 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 0 Natural Gas Reserves Natural Gas Production Source: Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy. 7
Natural Gas Annual Energy Outlook, Natural Gas Reserves Unconventional resources are not a flash in the pan and are anticipated to continue to increase over the next two decades or more. 360 340 320 Reserves, Tcf 300 280 260 240 220 200 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 Source: Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy 8
Natural Gas and Economic Development: Moving from Revolution to Renaissance 9
$20 $18 $16 Industrial Renaissance U.S. Chemical Industry Capital Investment: Incremental Due to Shale Gas The U.S. chemical industry is expected to invest up to $17 billion per year in incremental expenditures, totaling over $125 billion in the next 12 years. Billions of 2103 Dollars $14 $12 $10 $8 $6 $4 $2 $0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Source: T.K. Swift. 2014. Unconventional Oil & Gas Reignites the Economy. Presentation at NABE Annual Meeting, September 28, 2014. 10
Composition of Announced Projects Industrial Renaissance The majority of chemical industry investment is in petrochemicals; and in the Gulf Coast region. Investment by Industry Segment Investment by Region Inorganic Chemicals, 3% Fertilizers, 24% Bulk Petrochemicals, 57% Plastic Resins, 9% Other, 7% Ohio Valley, 9% Midwest, 13% Other, 8% Gulf Coast, 70% Source: T.K. Swift. 2014. Unconventional Oil & Gas Reignites the Economy. Presentation at NABE Annual Meeting, September 28, 2014. 11
U.S. Captures Market Share from Western Europe Volume Index of Production, Basic Chemicals (2007=100) 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 Industrial Renaissance By 2016, U.S. chemical production is expected to reclaim global market share by exceeding that of Western Europe. 0 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 United States Western Europe Source: T.K. Swift. 2014. Unconventional Oil & Gas Reignites the Economy. Presentation at NABE Annual Meeting, September 28, 2014. 12
Industrial Renaissance Louisiana Total Capital Expenditures by Sector Total capital investment associated with all announced natural gas-driven manufacturing investments in Louisiana totals over $42 billion. $12 $10 $8 Billion $ $6 $4 $2 $0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 LNG Export Cracker/Polymer Methanol/Ammonia Other Source: David E. Dismukes (2013). Unconventional Resources and Louisiana s Manufacturing Development Renaissance. Baton Rouge, LA: Louisiana State University, Center for Energy Studies. 13
Unconventional Crude Oil Development 14
Crude Oil U.S. Natural Gas Rig Count and Henry Hub Price Natural gas rigs closely follow the natural gas spot price. Price decrease that started in 2007 has reduced natural gas drilling attractiveness. 1,800 1,600 Considerable decrease in natural gas drilling postrecession. $16 $14 Number of Rigs 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 $12 $10 $8 $6 $4 Natural Gas Price ($/Mcf) 200 $2 0 $0 Jan-97 Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Natural Gas Rigs Henry Hub Price Source: Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy; and Baker Hughes. 15
Crude Oil U.S. Oil/Gas Rig Split Drilling emphasis over the past 20 years has almost exclusively concentrated on developing new natural gas wells. This has shifted to crude oil drilling emphasis over the past two years. Percent of Total (%) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Post recession re-alignment in drilling emphasis 0% 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Crude Oil Natural Gas Source: Baker Hughes 16
Crude Oil Changes in Crude Oil Reserves and Production Crude oil production and reserves are climbing back to levels not seen since the early 1980s (reserves). U.S. Crude Oil Proved Reserves (Billion Bbl) 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5-1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 U.S. Crude Oil Production (Billion Bbl) Crude Oil Reserves Crude Oil Production Source: Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy. 17
Crude Oil Annual Energy Outlook, Crude Oil Reserves Crude oil reserves are expected to increase 20 percent by 2020 and increase by another 20 percent by 2040. 50 45 Reserves, Billion Barrels 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 Source: Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy 18
Recent Market Changes 19
Crude Oil Forecast U.S. Crude Oil Production U.S. production of crude oil is expected to increase at an average annual rate of 6.4 percent through 2019, and decreases thereafter at a average annual rate of 0.6 percent through 2040. 12 10 Million Bbls per day 8 6 4 2 Post-Katrina (2005) AEO crude oil production forecast of about 5 MMBbls/d 0 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 Source: Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy 20
Market Changes Understanding Recent Changes Recent market changes not entirely unexpected: Changes in dollar valuations due to the anticipated end of U.S. monetary easing. Increasingly apparent global economic contraction, particularly in China. Increases in non-opec production, including U.S. unconventional activity. 21
Market Changes Dollar Value and Oil Prices Exchange rate adjusted value of crude oil starting to fall back to levels not seen since the financial crisis of 2008-2009. Price of Oil ($/Bbl) $160 $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $40 $35 $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 Differential ($/Bbl) $0 $0 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Price of Crude Oil Adjusted Price of Crude Oil Differential Note: The adjusted price of crude oil is the nominal WTI adjusted by the Federal Reserve Bank s Broad Index. The Broad Index is a weighted average of the foreign exchange values of the U.S. dollar against the currencies of a large group of major U.S. trading partners. Base year is 2002. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; and Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy. 22
Market Changes Changes in Chinese GDP Chinese economic growth slowing considerably from 2007 peaks. 16% Annual Percent Change, GDP 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% Projections 2% 0% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source: International Monetary Fund. 23
Chinese Manufacturing PMI 24
Market Changes Global Liquids Fuels Demand Contraction Change in liquids fuel growth slowing considerably, particularly since 2010. Gold portion of bar (China) getting smaller. 3.0 2.5 Projections Million Barrels per Day (MMBbls/d) 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0-0.5-1.0-1.5 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016-2.0 Other U.S. China Source: Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy; and Baker Hughes. 25
Market Changes Increased Excess Production Capacity Conventional wisdom suggests excess capacity responsible for the big crude oil price contraction. However, excess capacity has been relatively steady for the last three years. 4.5 4.0 3.5 Surplus Capacity (MMBbl/d) 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy. 26
Market Changes Challenges and Risks by Sector Three sectors important to Louisiana that will be impacted by these recent changes. Impacts will differ for differing reasons. Drilling: crude oil drilling in Louisiana has been contracting for years so there will be limited impact to in-state activity Service Sector Activity: the contraction in total U.S. drilling activity will result in service sector contraction which is large in Louisiana. Industrial Development: some projects in outlying years will be at risk due to the collapse in energy price differentials (gas to crude). Market Realignment: crude supply and price outlook still clouded could create new incentives drilling in dry plays like Haynesville if associated gas production starts to fall considerably. 27
Louisiana Drilling Impacts 28
Drilling Impacts Historic Rig Count by State Louisiana rig counts driven by Haynesville. All areas down considerably postrecession. 1,400 1,200 Haynesville development Rig Count (1999=100) 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 N. LA - Land S. LA - Inland Water S. LA - Land S. LA - Offshore Texas New Mexico Oklahoma Wyoming Colorado Source: Baker-Hughes Rig Count. 29
Drilling Impacts Historic Rig Count by State Oil rig activity has been weak for a considerable amount of time (absolute and relative terms). 1,400 1,200 Rig Count (1999=100) 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Louisiana Texas New Mexico Oklahoma Wyoming Colorado Source: Baker-Hughes Rig Count. 30
Louisiana In-State Crude Oil Production Trends (excludes Federal OCS) Drilling Impacts In-state production has been falling rapidly over the past several decades. Current production is about half the 1990 level. 14 12 10 Million Barrels 8 6 4 2 0 Jan-91 Jan-95 Jan-99 Jan-03 Jan-07 Jan-11 Jan-15 Source: Louisiana Department of Natural Resources. 31
Drilling Impacts Upstream Opportunities in the Tuscaloosa Marine Shale 1998 LGS Study primary publicly-available source of information on the formation. Lies between sands of the upper and lower Tuscaloosa. Approximately 2.7 MM acres. Varies in thickness from 500 feet (MS) to around 800 feet (LA). - Shallowest opportunity around 10,000 feet mostly between 11,000 to 12,000 some areas as deep as 16,000 (EBR). Estimated potential resource of 7 BBbls (LGS). Other estimates (Amelia Resources) have Original oil in place estimated at 153 BBls, potential at 9 BBbls. Source: Map from Oil and Gas Journal 32
Drilling Impacts Unconventional Drilling by Major Basin TMS drilling activity is still in its infancy relative to other maturing unconventional crude oil basins. Tuscaloosa Maine Wells Permian Wells Eagle Ford Wells Bakken Wells 33
Drilling Impacts U.S. Unconventional Production Costs by Basin TMS is estimated to have the highest development costs of the major unconventional basins. Eagle Ford Oil Tier 1 Bakken Tier 1 Eagle Ford Oil Tier 2 Bakken Tier 2 Niobrara Tuer 2 MS Lime Tier 1 Bakken Tier 3 CTM Tier 1 PRB Tier 2 CTM Tier 2 East Texas Eagle Ford Uinta Oil Eagle Ford Tier 3 TMS $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 Breakeven WTI Price ($/Bbl) 34
Louisiana Service Sector Impacts 35
Louisiana Natural Gas Service Jobs Service Sector Impacts Starting to see some employment movement services still strong (38,000) considering Haynesville contraction but down about 1,500 jobs; drilling down about 1,000 since January 2014. Thousand Employees (Extraction, Drilling) 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 Post-recession strength despite Haynesville contraction Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Oil and Gas Extraction Drilling Support Services 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Thousand Employees (Support Services) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor. 36
Service Sector Impacts U.S. Crude Oil Rig Count and Spot Price Note that while rig counts are falling, they are no where near the postrecession activity trough which saw comparable crude oil pricing. 1,800 $120 Number of Rigs 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 WTI Price Rig Count Jan 2009 $42.40 340 Apr 2015 $48.91 802 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 Crude Oil Price ($/Bbl) 0 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Crude Oil Rigs WTI Price $0 Source: Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy; and Baker Hughes. 37
Louisiana Industrial Development Impacts 38
Industrial Plants Risks to Industrial Development New Natural Gas End Uses & Fuel Diversity Concerns If crude oil prices fall too far, for too long, concurrent with any slight upward movement in natural gas, there could be some project development squeeze. All of these projects convert BTUs of natural gas to (petrochemical) product. The competing input for natural gas BTUs is crude oil BTUs. If crude oil BTUs fall, it makes some other competing places (short run) attractive. GTL is particularly vulnerable. Offsetting this near term squeeze is the longer-run perspective that includes abundant natural gas supply availability and volatility. This still tilts in favor of US natural gas-based projects -- BUT -- could put some projects in the wait and see position. 39
Industrial Plants Natural Gas and Crude Oil Prices Natural gas/crude oil price spreads well in excess of $60 Bbl and as high as $80/Bbl. These differentials have collapsed by about half. $ per BOE $160 $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $0 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Natural Gas Price Crude Oil Price Differential $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $0 -$20 Differential ($ per BOE) Source: Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy. 40
Example: Changes in Competitiveness of US Sourced LNG Natural Gas Exports Economics of LNG development are important, but there are additional factors that can influence development such as geopolitical and supply stability concerns that could sustain continued projects. Europe: Low High Asia: Low High Caribbean: Low High Feedgas 40-60% ($/MMBtu) $3.00 $5.00 $3.00 $5.00 $3.00 $5.00 Note: *uses a BOE conversion of 5.8 Mcf/BOE. Source: Various sources Liquefaction 12%-20% ($/MMBtu) $1.25 $1.25 $1.25 $1.25 $1.25 $1.25 Shipping & Fuel 20%-40% ($/MMBtu) $1.40 $1.65 $2.90 $3.45 $0.75 $1.00 Henry Hub (Mar 2105): $2.83 WTI (Mar 2015): Regas 5%-8% ($/MMBtu) $0.50 $0.50 $0.50 $0.50 $0.50 $0.50 Brent (Mar 2015): Delivered Cost ($/MMBtu) $6.15 $8.40 $7.65 $10.20 $5.50 $7.75 Equivalent Oil Price* ($/BOE) $35.65 $48.72 $44.37 $59.16 $31.90 $44.95 $47.82 $55.89 41
Industrial Plants Example: Agricultural Chemicals (Ammonia) Ammonia demand forecast is based upon slightly weaker than historic average world growth rates. The degree to which the market potentially becomes over-supplied will be function of project cancellations (if any) and continued growth assumptions. 165 160 Million metric tons 155 150 145 140 135 130 125 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Current Capacity New Capacity Demand Revised Growth? 42
Market Realignment 43
Market Realignment Natural Gas Prices and Rigs Will crude oil follow trends similar to natural gas post recession? Recall that natural gas drilling rigs activity is very responsive to price, both of which started to decrease rapidly post-recession. Natural Gas Price (6-month Rolling Average) $12 $10 $8 $6 $4 $2 $0 Post 2008, natural gas prices and rigs start to fall what about natural gas production? Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 Natural Gas Rigs (6-month Rolling Average) Natural Gas Price Number of Natural Gas Rigs Source: Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy; Baker Hughes, Inc. 44
Market Realignment Natural Gas Production and Rigs Interestingly, natural gas production continued to rise in the face of rapid decreases in rig activity (pre-cursor/corollary for crude oil?) Natural Gas Production (Tcf) (6-month Rolling Average) 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 Natural gas production down despite order of magnitude drop in price. 0.0 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 Natural Gas Rigs (6-month Rolling Average) Natural Gas Production Natural Gas Rigs Source: Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy; Baker Hughes, Inc. 45
Market Realignment Example: 2010 Well Status, Haynesville Shale Well Completion Backlog There are as many wells waiting on completion (306) as there are those currently producing (302). Overwhelming majority of those wells drilled and waiting on completion are in De Soto parish. Reinforces the Navigant extrapolation of production opportunities for the region. Producing Well (302 wells) Permitted Well Waiting on Completion (306 wells) Permitted Well Drilling in Process (97 wells) Permitted Well Not Drilling (160 wells) 46
Market Natural Realignment Gas Supply Producers Response to Contango A number of producers have announced their intention to drill wells, but defer completions. 2015 Completion Deferrals 2013-14 Completions per Year 2015 Planned Completion Deferrals 2015 Deferrals vs. 2013-14 Completions per Year Anadarko Various 817 per year 125 15% Apache Permian 163 per year 200 123% SM Energy Bakken 55 per year 50 91% EOG Eagle Ford 303 per year 350 116% Chesapeake Eagle Ford 214 per year 100 47% Cabot Eagle Ford 20 per year 20 100% Total 1,571 per year 845 54% Source: Genscape. 47
Market Natural Realignment Gas Supply Producers Response to Contango The impact of these 845 wells would be about 373 Mbd of oil and 528 MMcfd of gas. Anadarko - Various Anadarko - Various 27 100 Apache Permian Apache Permian 32 57 SM Energy - Bakken SM Energy - Bakken 23 19 EOG - Eagle Ford EOG - Eagle Ford 250 267 Chesapeake - Eagle Ford Chesapeake - Eagle Ford 35 76 Cabot - Eagle Ford Source: Genscape. 0 100 200 300 400 2015 Deferred Wells Cabot - Eagle Ford 6 10 0 100 200 300 Gas IP x Deferred Wells, MMcfd Oil IP x Deferred Wells, MBd 48
Market Natural Realignment Gas Supply Citi Research Estimates (February 3, 2015) Anticipated contraction of $57 billion in capex, but 1.122 MMBOE/d in new production Change in Capex ($MM) Percent Change in Capex Change in Production (MBOE/d) Percent Change in Production Covered Companies 31,718-34% 740 11% Non-Covered Companies 26,151-24% 382 5% Total 57,870-28% 1,122 8% Total production expected to increase from over 1.0 MMBOE/d. 49
Market Realignment U.S. Crude Oil Production Crude oil production has increased over 70 percent since 2009, at an average annual rate of 10 percent. 350 300 250 MMBbl 200 150 100 50 0 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Source: Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy. 50
U.S. Crude Oil Stocks Stocks of crude oil in the U.S. have remained above one billion barrels for the last five years. 1,150 1,100 1,050 MMBbl 1,000 950 900 850 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-1 Source: Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy. 51
Conclusions 52
Conclusions Conclusions: Outlook Likely to continue to see near-term pricing volatility. Market having a tough time processing information. Lower prices will reduce upstream activity, but a slow recovery is very likely. The genie is out of the bottle, U.S. shale production is a relatively known and secure resource opportunity, if anything, low prices are the market s best support for that belief. U.S. producers in survival mode: reduce costs; increase capital & operating efficiencies; and increase well productivity. ( the best solution for low prices is low prices ) Ultimately will see a turn around, and likely one that sees greater supply diversity and less OPEC supply dominance. 53
Questions, Comments and Discussion dismukes@lsu.edu www.enrg.lsu.edu LSU.edu/powerplayers 54