Market situation Cereals AGRI C 5 Advisory Group on Cereals, Oilseeds and Proteins 30 March 2012
World cereal balance : IGC 1000 900 World Ending Stocks of which 8 major exporters World Production World Consumption Source: IGC Feb. report 1841 (1830) 1900 1850 800 700 1802 1799 1784 1836 (1831) 1800 600 1768 1753 1750 mio t 500 1699 1731 1700 mio t 400 300 200 100 1678 303 121 373 404 159 172 373 378 (369) 137 131 (130) 1650 1600 1550 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 est 2011 fcst 1500 2
325 305 285 265 245 225 World cereal prices since 30 August 2011 ($/t) Wheat - Black Sea Milling - $ 275 Wheat - US SRW Gulf - $ 259 Wheat - FR Rouen - $ 281 Maize - US 3YC Gulf - $ 274 Maize - FR Bordeaux - $ 282 Barley - FR Dlvd Rouen feed - $ 281 3 13/09/2011 20/09/2011 27/09/2011 4/10/2011 11/10/2011 18/10/2011 25/10/2011 1/11/2011 8/11/2011 15/11/2011 22/11/2011 29/11/2011 6/12/2011 13/12/2011 20/12/2011 27/12/2011 3/01/2012 10/01/2012 17/01/2012 24/01/2012 31/01/2012 7/02/2012 14/02/2012 21/02/2012 28/02/2012 6/03/2012 13/03/2012 20/03/2012 27/03/2012 30/08/2011 6/09/2011 quotation in $ / tonne
World wheat balance sheet: IGC 500 400 World Ending Stocks of which 8 major exporters World Production World Consumption 685 Source: IGC Feb. report 678 653 695 (690) 681 (681) 720 700 680 660 300 645 651 656 640 mio t 607 620 mio t 200 602 172 199 196 211 (204) 600 580 100 132 560 47 69 77 71 76 (74) 540 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 est 2011 fcst 520 4
IGC: Wheat production forecast 160.0 140.0 All wheat 138 2009 2010 (est.) 2011 (fcst.) Source: IGC Feb. report 120.0 100.0 Mt 80.0 60.0 56 54 40.0 20.0 29 25 22 23 14 0.0 EU Russia USA Australia Canada Ukraine Kazakhstan Argentina 5
500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 Wheat export prices since 1/1/2007 6 10/2007 01/2008 04/2008 07/2008 10/2008 01/2009 04/2009 07/2009 10/2009 01/2010 04/2010 07/2010 10/2010 01/2011 04/2011 07/2011 10/2011 01/2012 Wheat - Canada CWRS St Lawrence - $ 366 Wheat - US HRW Gulf - $ 292 Wheat - US SRW Gulf - $ 259 Wheat - Australia ASW Eastern States - $ 248 Wheat - Argentina Trigo Up River - $ 258 Wheat - Black Sea Milling - $ 275 Wheat - Black Sea Feed - $ 255 07/2007 04/2007 01/2007 quotation in or $ / tonne
EU wheat export commitments 2011/12 2010/2011 Average 5MY trimmed avg 5MY 2011/2012 Million tonnes 20 16 WHEAT CUMULATED EXP MY 2010/11 TRIMMED AVERAGE 5MY 12 AVERAGE 5MY 8 4 MY 2011/12 0 7
EU wheat import commitments 2011/12 Soft wheat 2011/12 Soft wheat 2010/11 soft wheat average 5MY soft wheat trimmed average 6 WHEAT CUMULATED IMP 4 TRIMMED AVERAGE 5MY Million tonnes MY 2011/12 AVERAGE 5MY 2 MY 2010/11 0 8
EU wheat exporting MS and destinations mio t 2.6 2.4 2.2 2 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 Source:Eurostat Main EU-27 Common Wheat (incl. flour groats,...) exporters and destination countries 6 months of marketing year 2011/12: 8.3 mio t France 66% Germany 13% Romania 7% Lithuania 3% Utd. Kingdom 2% Spain 2% Algeria Morocco Saudi Arabia Angola Egypt Sudan Cuba Others 9
EU wheat exporting MS and destinations 1.8 Main EU-27 Common Wheat (incl. flour groats,...) exporters and destination countries Average for 6 months of marketing years 2006-10: 8.3 mio t 1.6 1.4 1.2 mio t 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 France 51% Germany 20% Romania 7% Hungary 4% Bulgaria 4% Poland 3% Source:Eurostat Algeria Morocco Egypt Libya Iran South Africa Yemen Others 10
EU MS exporting wheat 2011/12 & 5 average MY EU Common Wheat exports by Member State (incl. flour, groats ) 6 months of marketing year 2011-12: 8.3 mio t Hungary 2% Spain 2% Latvia 1% Belgium 1% Bulgaria 1% Others 3% Average EU Common Wheat exports by Member State (incl. flour, groats ) 6 months of marketing years 2006-10: 8.8 mio t Latvia 2% Others 5% Belgium 2% Lithuania 3% Utd. Kingdom 2% Poland 3% Bulgaria 4% Lithuania 3% Hungary 4% Romania 7% Romania 7% France 50% Germany 13% France 65% Germany 20% Source: Eurostat Source: Eurostat 11
EU wheat export destinations EU Common Wheat (incl. flour, groats... ) export destinations 6 months of marketing year 2011-12: 8.3 mio t EU Common Wheat (incl. flour, groats... ) export destinations 6 months of marketing years 2006-10: 8.8 mio t Others 23% Algeria 30% Ivory Coast 2% South Africa 2% Syria 2% Algeria 18% Others 34% Morocco 10% Cameroon 2% Libya 2% Senegal 2% Cameroon 2% Norway 2% Source: Eurostat Cuba 3% Sudan 3% Egypt 4% Angola 4% Tunisia 2% Morocco 12% Ivory Coast 2% Senegal 2% Saudi Arabia 7% Pakistan 2% India 2% Source: Eurostat Angola 3% Egypt 9% Libya 4% Iran 4% South Africa 3% Yemen 3% 12
EU MS importing wheat EU Soft Wheat Imports by MS 6 months of marketing year 2011-12: 3 mio t Poland 1% EU Soft Wheat Imports by MS Average from 6 months of marketing years 2006-10: 2.5 mio t Others 5% Belgium 2% Netherlands 5% Others 2% Romania 2% Portugal 3% Portugal 6% Belgium 5% Greece 6% Spain 43% Greece 8% Spain 40% Utd. Kingdom 7% Utd. Kingdom 12% Source: Eurostat Italy 28% Source: Eurostat Italy 25% 13
EU wheat imports origins EU Soft Wheat Import Origins 6 months of marketing year 2011-12: 3 mio t Others 1% Kazakhstan 2% Serbia 3% USA 9% EU Soft Wheat Import Origins Average from 6 months of marketing years 2006-10: 2.5 mio t Others 1% Serbia 2% Croatia 3% Kazakhstan 4% Canada 10% Ukraine 40% Russia 15% Ukraine 33% Canada 19% Russia 35% USA 23% Source: Eurostat Source: Eurostat 14
World durum wheat balance: IGC 10 9 3 Major exporters Stocks Canada World Production World Consumption 41 42 8 Source: IGC Feb. report 39 40 7 37 38 38 38 38 6 37 (37) mio t 5 4 35 4.9 35 36 (36) 36 mio t 3 2 1 1.7 0.9 3.6 1.9 2.7 3.1 1.6 2.3 (2.3) 1.3 (1.2) 34 32 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 est 2011 fcst 30 15
600 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 World durum wheat prices since 01/2007 16 04/2007 07/2007 10/2007 01/2008 04/2008 07/2008 10/2008 01/2009 04/2009 07/2009 10/2009 01/2010 04/2010 07/2010 10/2010 01/2011 04/2011 07/2011 10/2011 01/2012 04/2012 Durum - US Minneapolis HADW - 277 (20/3/2012) Durum - FR Port-La-Nouvelle - 267 Durum - IT Bologna - 276 Durum - ES Average - 267 Wheat - FR Rouen - 211 01/2007 quotation in or $ / tonne
EU durum imports origins EU Durum Wheat Import Origins 6 months of marketing year 2011-12: 1 mio t EU Durum Wheat Import Origins Average for 6 months of marketing years 2006-10: 1 mio t Russia 1% Kazakhstan 1% Others 1% Others 6% Turkey 2% 0% Argentina 3% Kazakhstan 3% Mexico 5% Syria 4% Australia 9% Mexico 17% Canada 46% USA 16% Canada 64% USA 22% Source: Eurostat Source: Eurostat 17
EU MS exporting durum wheat EU Durum Wheat Exports by MS 6 months of marketing year 2011-12: 0.8 mio t EU Durum Wheat Exports by MS Average for 6 months of marketing years 2006-10: 0.5 mio t Austria 0.4% Hungary 0.5% Cyprus 0.4% Slovenia 0.2% Others 0.2% Hungary 1% Cyprus 1% Belgium 1% Others 1% Greece 1.2% Bulgaria 2% Spain 10.0% Greece 10% Spain 16% France 46% Italy 22.5% France 64.5% Italy 22% Source: Eurostat Source: Eurostat 18
World barley balance sheet: IGC 90 80 70 60 World Ending Stocks EU ending stocks World Production World Consumption Source: IGC Feb. report 155 146 150 145 136 (136) 160 150 140 mio t 50 40 135 133 40 135 135 (134) 130 mio t 30 20 10 0 26 7 34 13 18 124 29 11 27 (26) 10 (9) 2007 2008 2009 2010 est 2011 fcst 120 110 100 19
325 275 225 175 125 75 Barley prices since 01/2007 20 07/2007 10/2007 01/2008 04/2008 07/2008 10/2008 01/2009 04/2009 07/2009 10/2009 01/2010 04/2010 07/2010 10/2010 01/2011 04/2011 07/2011 10/2011 01/2012 Barley - FR Dlvd Rouen feed - 210 Barley - UK FOB London feed - no quotation Barley - FI Dlvd Naantali feed - 169 Barley - Black Sea feed FOB - 199 Barley - FR Dlvd Rouen malting - 247 04/2007 01/2007 quotation in or $ / tonne
EU barley export commitments 2011/12 2011/2012 2010/2011 Average 5MY trimmed avg 5MY Million tonnes 5 4 BARLEY CUMULATED EXP TRIMMED AVERAGE 3 MY 2010/11 AVERAGE 5MY 2 MY 2011/12 1 0 21
EU barley exporting MS Hungary 2% Finland 2% Sweden 2% Bulgaria 3% Netherlands 3% Lithuania 3% EU Barley and Malt Exports by Member State 6 months of marketing year 2011-12: 3.5 mio t Estonia 1% Others 3% France 25% Sweden 2% Lithuania 3% Bulgaria 3% EU Barley and Malt Exports by Member State Average for 6 months of marketing years 2006-10: 3.5 mio t Finland 2% Czech Republic 1% Hungary 1% Estonia 1% Others 2% France 23% Utd. Kingdom 5% Netherlands 4% Utd. Kingdom 4% Denmark 7% Romania 15% Spain 4% Denmark 4% Germany 20% Belgium 14% Romania 7% Source: Eurostat Germany 15% Source: Eurostat Belgium 19% 22
EU barley export destinations EU Barley and Malt Export Destinations 6 months of marketing year 2011-12: 3.5 mio t EU Barley and Malt Export Destinations Average for 6 months of marketing years 2006-10: 3.5 mio t Others 25% Saudi Arabia 34% Others 30% Saudi Arabia 33% Nigeria 2% China 2% Source: Eurostat Tunisia 3% Brazil 3% Vietnam 3% Japan 3% Venezuela 3% Morocco 4% Russia 5% Jordan 4% Algeria 9% Syria 2% Algeria 2% Russia 3% Morocco 3% Jordan 4% Source: Eurostat China 4% Japan 4% Tunisia 5% Venezuela 5% Brazil 5% 23
mio t 500 400 300 200 100 World maize balance sheet: IGC World Ending Stocks of which US World Production World Consumption Source: IGC Feb. report 797 779 134 800 784 820 821 150 148 844 828 133 871 (867) 864 (861) 126 (125) 880 860 840 820 800 780 760 740 mio t 0 41 43 43 29 20 (21) 2007 2008 2009 2010 est 2011 fcst 720 700 24
IGC: maize production forecast Maize 2007 2008 2009 2010 (est.) 2011 (fcst.) Source: IGC Feb. report 350 300 314 250 Mio t 200 150 100 50 65 58 23 23 0 USA EU Brazil Argentine Ukraine 25
04/2012 325 275 225 175 125 Maize export prices since 1/1/2007 26 10/2007 01/2008 04/2008 07/2008 10/2008 01/2009 04/2009 07/2009 10/2009 01/2010 04/2010 07/2010 10/2010 01/2011 04/2011 07/2011 10/2011 01/2012 Maize - US 3YC Gulf - $ 274 Maize - Argentina Feed Up River - $ 260 Maize - Brazil Feed Paranagua - $ 258 Maize - Black Sea Feed - $ 270 07/2007 04/2007 01/2007 quotation in or $ / tonne
EU Maize import commitments 2011/12 Maize other than seed 2011/12 Maize other than seed 2010/11 8 7 Maize other than seed average 5MY MAIZE CUMULATED IMP Maize other than seed - Trimmed Average 6 MY 2010/11 AVERAGE 5MY Million tonnes 5 4 3 TRIMMED AVERAGE 5MY 2 1 MY 2011/12 0 27
EU MS importing maize Maize Imports (incl. processed products) by Member State 6 months of marketing year 2011-12: 2.5 mio t Cyprus 1% Germany 1% Poland 1% Belgium 1% Slovenia 3% Utd. Kingdom 4% Greece 4% Italy 8% Ireland 1% Romania 1% Others 2% Spain 36% Maize Imports (incl. processed products) by Member State Average for 6 months of marketing years 2006-10: 3.4 mio t Romania 2% Slovenia 1% Greece 2% Belgium 2% France 3% Germany 4% Utd. Kingdom 6% Italy 6% Bulgaria 1% Cyprus 1% Ireland 1% Poland 1% Others 2% Spain 45% Netherlands 17% Netherlands 9% Portugal 20% Portugal 14% Source: Eurostat Source: Eurostat 28
EU maize imports origins Maize (incl. processed products) - Origin of EU Imports 6 months of marketing year 2011-12: 2.5 mio t Serbia 8% South Africa 1% Others 2% Croatia 2% Brazil 5% Maize (incl. processed products) - Origin of EU Imports Average for 6 months of marketing years 2006-10: 3.4 mio t Others 2% Croatia 2% USA 2% Paraguay 4% Ukraine 6% Argentina 9% Ukraine 44% Serbia 9% Brazil 55% Russia 10% Argentina 20% USA 19% Source: Eurostat Source: Eurostat 29
EU maize importing MS and origins 700 Maize (incl. processed products) Main EU Importers and Country of Origin 6 months of marketing year 2011/12: 2.5 mio t 600 500 1000 t 400 300 200 100 0 Source:Eurostat Spain 37% Portugal 20% Netherlands 17% Italy 8% Greece 4% Utd. Kingdom 4% Ukraine USA Russia Argentina Serbia Brazil Croatia Others 30
EU Commitments 2011/2012 (39 weeks) Imports: 9.5 mio t (10.4 mio t in 2010/11; 6.3 mio t 2 years ago) 4.9 mio t soft wheat 1.1 mio t durum wheat 3.9 mio t maize 407 000 t barley Exports: 17.6 mio t (21.2 mio t last year; 15.9 mio t 2 years ago) 10.4 mio t soft wheat 2.6 mio t barley in grain 1.0 mio t durum wheat 2.3 mio t maize So far, the EU is a net cereal exporter of 8.1 mio t, against 10.8 mio t last year and 9.6 mio t in 2009/2010. 31
Thank you for your attention! Balance sheet updates & market presentation available: http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/cereals/balanc e-sheets/index_en.htm
World wheat balance: USDA 500 400 World Ending Stocks of which 5 major exporters World Production World Consumption Source: USDA Mar. report 682 686 694 (693) 684 (680) 720 700 680 652 660 mio t 300 200 610 617 641 167 650 654 202 199 210 (213) 640 620 600 mio t 100 121 580 0 58 48 54 55 (54) 32 2007 2008 2009 2010 est 2011 fcst 560 540 33
Wheat balance USDA vs. IGC (1) USDA World Production USDA World Consumption IGC World Production IGC World Consumption 700 690 Source: USDA Mar. report Source: IGC Feb. report 685 686 695 694 684 680 682 678 681 670 660 651 656 653 Mio t 650 645 650 654 652 640 641 630 620 610 600 617 610 607 602 2007 2008 2009 2010 est 2011 fcst 34
Wheat balance USDA vs. IGC (2) USDA World Stocks IGC World Stocks USDA 8 major exporters IGC 8 major exporters 250 Source: USDA Mar. report 200 Source: IGC Feb. report 202 199 199 196 210 211 167 172 Mio t 150 121 132 100 50 38 47 60 69 78 77 74 71 79 76 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 est 2011 fcst 35
USDA: Wheat production forecast 160.0 140.0 120.0 100.0 All wheat 137 2009 2010 est 2011 fcst Source: USDA Mar. report Mt 80.0 60.0 56 54 40.0 20.0 30 25 23 22 15 0.0 EU Russia USA Australia Canada Kazakhstan Ukraine Argentina 36
World maize balance: USDA 500 World Ending Stocks of which US World Production World Consumption Source: USDA Mar. report 869 (868) 900 880 400 844 865 (864) 860 mio t 300 792 799 819 823 829 840 820 800 mio t 200 100 771 129 782 149 144 129 125 (125) 780 760 740 0 41 43 43 29 20 (20) 2007 2008 2009 2010 est 2011 fcst 720 700 37
USDA: maize production forecast 350 314 Maize 2007 2008 2009 2010 est 2011 fcst Source: USDA Mar. report 300 250 Mio t 200 150 100 50 65 62 23 22 0 USA EU Brazil Ukraine Argentine 38
EU MS importing durum Belgium 10.9% EU Durum Wheat Imports by MS 6 months of marketing year 2011-12: 1 mio t Utd. Kingdom 0.4% Poland 0.4% Netherlands 1.5% Germany 5.1% Greece 0.3% Others 0.1% EU Durum Wheat Imports by MS Average for 6 months of marketing years 2006-10: 1 mio t Netherlands 6% Belgium 11% Poland 1% Portugal 1% Germany 2% Spain 2% Greece 1% Italy 81.3% Italy 76% Source: Eurostat Source: Eurostat 39
EU durum export destinations EU Durum Wheat export destinations 6 months of marketing year 2011-12: 0.8 mio t EU Durum Wheat export destinations Average for 6 months of marketing years 2006-10: 0.5 mio t Croatia 1% Nigeria 1% Others 8% Others 17% Senegal 1% Mauritania 1% Switzerland 1% Ivory Coast 8% Algeria 46% Nigeria 2% Mauritania 2% Senegal 3% Saudi Arabia 3% Algeria 36% Tunisia 15% Turkey 5% Ivory Coast 7% Source: Eurostat Morocco 18% Source: Eurostat Tunisia 25% 40
Barley EU exporting MS and destinations Main EU-27 Barley and Malt Exporters and Countries of Destination 6 months of marketing year 2011/12: 3.5 mio t 500 450 400 350 1000 t 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Source:Eurostat France 24% Romania 15% Germany 15% Belgium 14% Denmark 7% Utd. Kingdom 5% Saudi Arabia Algeria Russia Jordan Morocco Venezuela Japan Others 41
Barley EU exporting MS and destinations Main EU-27 Barley and Malt Exporters and Countries of Destination Average for 6 months of marketing years 2006-10: 3.5 mio t 450 400 350 300 1000 t 250 200 150 100 50 0 Source:Eurostat France 22% Germany 19% Belgium 19% Romania 7% Denmark 4% Spain 4% Saudi Arabia Tunisia Venezuela Brazil Japan China Jordan Others 42
US SRW wheat futures 43
CME wheat: open interest and net position of traders since 01/2011 0.8 Open Interest 60 0.7 Managed money and other rep. - Net positions 40 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 WHEAT - CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE 44 Millions of contracts (136 metric tonnes) Thousands of contracts (of 136 metric tonnes) 20 0-20 -40-60 -80 4/01/2011 18/01/2011 1/02/2011 15/02/2011 1/03/2011 15/03/2011 29/03/2011 12/04/2011 26/04/2011 10/05/2011 24/05/2011 7/06/2011 21/06/2011 5/07/2011 19/07/2011 2/08/2011 16/08/2011 30/08/2011 13/09/2011 27/09/2011 11/10/2011 25/10/2011 8/11/2011 22/11/2011 6/12/2011 20/12/2011 3/01/2012 17/01/2012 31/01/2012 14/02/2012 28/02/2012
EU Milling Wheat Futures since 11/2010 45
CME maize futures since 01/2010 46
CME maize: open interest and positions of traders since 01/2011 3.0 Open Interest 500 2.5 Managed money and other rep. - Net positions 450 400 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 CORN - CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE 0.0 0 47 4/01/2011 18/01/2011 1/02/2011 15/02/2011 1/03/2011 15/03/2011 29/03/2011 12/04/2011 26/04/2011 10/05/2011 24/05/2011 7/06/2011 21/06/2011 5/07/2011 19/07/2011 2/08/2011 16/08/2011 30/08/2011 13/09/2011 27/09/2011 11/10/2011 25/10/2011 8/11/2011 22/11/2011 6/12/2011 20/12/2011 3/01/2012 17/01/2012 31/01/2012 14/02/2012 28/02/2012 Millions of contracts (127 metric tonnes) Thousands of contracts (of 127 metric tonnes)
EU maize futures since 01/2011 48