June 2014 North American LNG Projects and Outlook
About your presenter: Geoffrey Cann National Director, Oil and Gas, Deloitte Brisbane 25 years with Deloitte Canada, Korea, Japan, China, Hong Kong, Australia, USA, Caribbean Strategy, transformation, cost reduction Blog: www.geoffreycann.com Twitter: @geoffreycann Email: gecann@deloitte.com.au Phone: 0447-366-333 1
North Americans are eyeing a promising market 14 Global LNG demand (bcf/d) 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Japan Korea China Other Asia & Pacific Europe India Latin America 2
KJT may be slowing, but other AsiaPac beckons LNG demand growth forecast 2013-20 CAGR (%) Latin America 19% India 15% Europe 7% Other Asia & Pacific 13% China 19% Korea 2% Japan -2% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 3
Latter half of the decade belongs to NA Global Liquefaction Capacity Growth Outlook 2008-20 4 Source: IHS CERA, RBC Capital Markets
68 mtpa approved to non-fta countries 5 Project Sabine Pass (18mtpa, 2015 17) Freeport LNG (13.2mtpa, 2018) Lake Charles (15mtpa, 2019) Cove Point LNG (5.3mtpa, 2017) Cameron LNG (12mtpa, 2018) Jordan Cove: (6mtpa, 2018 19) Oregon LNG (9.6mtpa, 2019) Corpus Christi (13.5mtpa, 2018) Lavaca Bay FLNG: (4.4ttpa, 2018) Final Investment Decision (FID) Source: RBC Capital Markets, March 26 th 2014 Offtake Agreement(s) DOE Export Approval (FTA) DOE Export Approval (Non FTA) Complete FERC Application Submitted Incomplete FERC Construction Approval
Additional 41 mtpa awaiting approval to non-fta countries Project Gulf Coast LNG: (21mtpa, 2018) Elba Island LNG (2.5mtpa, 2016 17) Gulf LNG (10mtpa, 2019) CE FLNG (8mtpa, 2018) Golden Pass: (15.6mtpa, 2018) Main Pass Energy: (24mtpa, 2018 19) Magnolia LNG (8 mtpa, 2018) Final Investment Decision (FID) Offtake Agreement(s) DOE Export Approval (FTA) DOE Export Approval (Non FTA) FERC Application Submitted FERC Construction Approval 6 Source: RBC Complete Incomplete
The US form guide to LNG Strategies to Win Tolling structures Multiple market exposures HH indexed pricing Brownfield capital cost Low operating cost Asian partners Deep supply base Reusable infrastructure Handicaps EPA rules, demand growth Mexican demand Weather Panama Canal pricing HH pricing volatility Regulatory environment Social license Contract time limits 7
Canada has 112 mtpa awaiting customers Project Douglas Channel LNG (1.8mtpa, 2016) Upstream Gas Supply FID Complete Offtake Agreements Partially Complete NEB Export Approval Incomplete Kitimat LNG (10mtpa, TBD) Pacific NorthWest: (12 18mtpa, 2019 20) LNG Canada (12 24mtpa, 2020) Prince Rupert: (14 22mtpa, 2020 21) WCC LNG (10 30mtpa, 2021 23) Woodfibre LNG (2.1mtpa, 2017) Triton LNG (2.3mtpa, TBD) Aurora LNG (24mtpa, 2021 23) Woodside Petroleum (TBD) Goldboro LNG (10mtpa, 2019 20) 8 Source: RBC Capital Markets, March 26 th 2014
The Canadian form guide to LNG Strategies to Win Freight Long contracts Huge resource Low gas cost Atlantic, Pacific exposure Asian partners Energy security Capital experience Favourable regulatory Handicaps Greenfield capital cost Labour, supply constraints Fiscal uncertainty Infrastructure constraints Pipelines Oil-indexed pricing Social license challenges 9
Australia will win the race to 2016 Close out existing projects Become excellent in all operations Deliver high reliability Explore brownfield options Work on social license 10
but needs to take out $4/mcf in capital costs 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 $13-14/mcf 5.3 2.43 4.1 3.6 2.17 2.31 5.44 4.93 4.82 Eastern Australia (CSG) Integrated supply cost comparisons Estimated Capital Cost ranges $11-13/mcf East Africa (Mozambique) $11-13/mcf 2.5 1.58 6.95 West Coast Western Australia Canada (Montney) (Conventional) Liquefaction Processing & Transporation Upstream Cost $11-12/mcf $10-12/mcf 4.3 3.26 2.88 US Gulf Coast (Haynesville) 11
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US LNG Export Projects: Overview LNG Export Projects Type Size (mtpa) Location Start-Up Partners DOE Status Sabine Pass Trains 1 4 Brownfield 16 Sabine, Louisiana 2015-19 Cheniere Energy Approved Freeport LNG Brownfield 10.5 Freeport, Texas 2018-19 Michael Smith Approved Lake Charles Brownfield 15 Lake Charles, Louisiana 2019 Energy Transfer, BG Group Approved Cove Point Brownfield 5.3 Lusby, Maryland 2017-18 Dominion Resources Inc Approved Freeport LNG* Brownfield 3 Freeport, Texas 2018-19 Michael Smith Approved Cameron LNG Brownfield 12 Hackberry, Louisiana 2019 GDF Suez, Mitsubishi, Mitsui, Sempra Energy Approved Jordan Cove Greenfield 6 Coos Bay, Oregon 2018-19 Veresen Inc Approved Oregon LNG Greenfield 9.6 Warrenton, Oregon 2019 LNG Development Company Review Corpus Christi Greenfield 15 Corpus Christi, Texas 2018+ Cheniere Energy Review Lavaca Bay FLNG Greenfield 10 Port Lavaca, Texas 2018 Excelerate Energy Review Gulf Coast LNG Greenfield 21 Brownsville, Texas 2018 Basin Exploration Company Review Elba Island LNG Brownfield 4 Savannah, Georgia 2017-18 Southern LNG/Kinder Morgan Review Gulf LNG Liquefaction Brownfield 11.5 Pascagoula, Mississippi 2019-20 GE Energy,Kinder Morgan Review CE FLNG Greenfield 8 Plaquemines Parish 2018 Cambridge Energy Review Golden Pass Brownfield 15.6 Sabine, Texas 2018 Golden Pass Products LLC Review South Texas LNG Greenfield 8 Corpus Christi, Texas 2017+ Pangea, Statoil Review Main Pass Energy Greenfield 24 Offshore Louisiana 2016-17 Freeport-McMoRan Energy Review Sabine Pass Train 5 Brownfield 2 Sabine, Louisiana 2019 Cheniere Energy Review Sabine Pass Train 5 Brownfield 1.8 Sabine, Louisiana 2019 Cheniere Energy Review Venture Global LNG Greenfield 5 Lake Charles, Louisiana 2018+ Venture Global LLC Review Eos LNG Greenfield 12 Brownsville, Texas TBD Eos LNG LLC Review Barca LNG Greenfield 12 Brownsville, Texas TBD Barca LNG LLC Review Sabine Pass Trains 5 6 Brownfield 6.4 Sabine, Texas 2019 Cheniere Energy Review Magnolia LNG Greenfield 8 Lake Charles, Louisiana 2018 LNG Ltd Review Delfin FLNG Greenfield 13 Offshore Louisiana 2017-20 Delfin LNG LLC Review Waller Point LNG Greenfield 1.5 Lake Charles, Louisiana TBD Waller LNG Services, LLC Review Gasfin Development Greenfield 1.5 Lake Charles, Louisiana 2019+ Gasfin Development USA, LLC Review Texas LNG Greenfield 2 Brownsville, Texas 2018 Texas LNG LLC Review Louisiana LNG Energy Greenfield 2 Plaquemines Parish 2017 Louisiana LNG Energy LLC Review 13 Source: FERC, API, RBC Note*: Freeport- Freeport filed two separate non FTA applications (combined 2.8 bcf/d) and received approval for 1.8 bcf/d, consistent with 2014 its FERC Deloitte application; Touche Tohmatsu
LNG Export Terminals in the US: Under Review Magnolia LNG Size: 8 mtpa Partners: LNG Ltd Capex: US$3.7 billion Start date: 2018 Offtake Agreement: 1.7 mtpa, West face capital (1.7) Gasfin LNG Size: 1.5 mtpa Partners: Gasfin Development Start date: 2019 Waller LNG Size: 1.5 mtpa Partners: Waller LNG Services Start date: TBD Golden Pass Size: 15.6 mtpa Partners: Exxon Mobil / Qatar Petroleum Capex: US$10 billion Start date: 2018 14 Oregon LNG Size: 9.6 mtpa Partners: LNG Developm ent Company Capex: US6.3 billion 14 Start date: 2019 Offtake Agreement: No Source: FERC, API Venture global LNG Size: 5.1 mtpa Partners: Venture Global LLC Start date: 2018+ Oregon South Texas LNG Size: 8 mtpa Partners: Pangea LNG, Statoil NA Capex: US$5-6 billion Start Offtake date: Agreement: 2017+ No Gulf Coast Size: 21 mtpa Partners: Basin Exploration Company Capex: US$12 billion Start date: NA Louisiana LNG Size: 2 mtpa Partners: Louisiana LNG Energy Start date: 2017 Texas Eos LNG LLC and Barca Size: 12 mtpa, 12 mtppa Partners: Eros & Barca LLC Capex: US$3 billion Start Offtake date: Agreement: 2019 No Louisiana Gulf LNG Size: 11.5 mtpa Partners: GE Energy,Kinder Morgan Capex: US$6.9 billion Start date: 2019-20 Georgia Texas LNG Size: 2 mtpa Partners: Texas LNG LLC Start date: 2018 CE FLNG Size: 8.2 mtpa Partners: Cambridge Energy Start date: 2018 Delfin LNG Size: 13 mtpa Partners: Delfin LNG LLC Start date: 2017-20 Main Pass Energy Hub Size: 24 mtpa Partners: Freeport-McMoran Energy, United LNG Offtake Start date: Agreement: 2018-19 4 Mtpa, Petronet LNG Limited (4) Lavaca Bay FLNG Size: 4.4 mtpa Partners: Excelerate Energy Capex: US$2 billion Start date: 2018+ Corpus Christi Size: 13.5 mtpa Partners: Cheniere Energy Start date: 2018+ Offtake Agreement: 3.2 mtpa, Endesa (1.5), Pertamina (0.8) Elba Island LNG Size: 2.5 mtpa Partners: Southern LNG/Kinder Morgan Capex: US$1.4-2 billion Start Offtake date: Agreement: 2017-18 No
LNG Export Terminals in the US: Approved for Export Cove Point Size: 5.25 mtpa Partners: Dominion Resources Inc Capex: US$3.4-3.8 billion Start date: 2017-18 Offtake Agreement: 5.2 mtpa, Sumitomo (2.6); Gail (2.6) Oregon Jordan Cove Size: 6-9 mtpa Partners: Veresen Inc Capex: US$7.5 billion Start date: 2018-19 Maryland Freeport LNG Expansion, L.P. and FLNG Liquefaction, LLC Size: 13.2 mtpa Partners: Michael Smith Capex: US$3 billion Start date: 2018-19 Offtake Agreement: 13.2 Mtpa, Osaka Gas (2.2); Chubu (2.2); BP (4.4); Toshi ba (2.2); SK E&S (2.2) 15 Source: FERC, API Freeport, Texas Sabine Pass Size: 27 mtpa Partners: Cheniere Energy Capex: US$10 billion Start date: 2015-19 Offtake Agreement: 19.8 mtpa, BG (5.5),Gas Natural Fenosa(3.5), Gail (3.5), KoGas (3.5), Total (2), Centrica (1.75) Texas Louisiana Cameron LNG Size: 12 mtpa Partners: GDF Suez (16.6%); Mitsubishi (16.6%); Mitsui (16.6%), Sempra Energy (50.2) Capex: US$10 billion Start date: 2019 Offtake Agreement: 0.8 mtpa CPC Corporation (0.8) Lake Charles Size: 15 mtpa Partners: Energy Transfer, BG Group Start date: 2019 Offtake Agreement: 15 Mtpa, BG (15)
Canada LNG Export Projects: Overview LNG Export Projects Type Size (mtpa) Location Start-Up Partners DOE Status Douglas Channel Proposed 0.7 1.8 Kitimat, BC 2016 LNG Partners (47.5%), Haisla (27.5%),Golar Approved LNG (25%) Kitimat LNG Proposed 10 Kitimat, BC TBD Chevron (50%), Apache (50%) Approved Pacific NorthWest Proposed 12 18 Prince Rupert, BC 2019 20 PETRONAS (77%), JAPEX (10%), Indian Oil (10%), Petroleum Approved Brunei (3%) LNG Canada Proposed 12 24 Kitimat, BC 2020 Shell (40%), KOGAS (20%),Mitsubishi (20%), Approved PetroChina (20%) Prince Rupert LNG Proposed 14 22 Prince Rupert, BC 2020 21 BG Group (100%) Approved WCC LNG Proposed 10 30 TBD, BC 2021 23 ExxonMobil (50%), Imperial Oil (50%) Approved Woodfibre LNG Proposed 2.1 Squamish, BC 2017 Pacific Oil & Gas (100%) Approved Triton LNG Proposed 2.3 TBD, BC TBD AltaGas (50%), Idemitsu (50%) Pending Kitsault FLNG Proposed 20 Kitsault, BC 2018 Kitsault Energy (100%) Pending Goldboro LNG Proposed 10 Goldboro, NS 2019 20 Pieridae Energy (100%) Pending Aurora LNG Proposed 24 Grassy Point, BC 2021 23 CNOOC (60%), INPEX (20%), JGC (20%) H Energy Proposed 4.5 Melford, NS 2020 H Energy (100%) NA Stewart Energy LNG Proposed 5 30 Stewart, BC 2017+ Canada Stewart Energy Group (100%) Pending Pending 16 Woodside Proposed NA Grassy Point, BC NA Woodside Petroleum Source: FERC, API, RBC Capital Markets 2014 Deloitte Touche NA Tohmatsu
LNG Export Terminal in Canada: Operating & Planned Alaska LNG Size: 15-18 mtpa Partners: ConocoPhillips, ExxonMobil, BP, Transcanada Capex: US$11 billion Start date: 2023+ Pacific NorthWest Size: 12-18 mtpa Partners: Petronas, Japex, IndianOil, Petroleum Brunei, Sinopec Capex: US$11 billion Start date: 2019-20 Offtake Agreement: 3 mtpa, Indian Oil (1.2), Sinopec (1.8) Prince Rupert Size: 14-22 mtpa Partners: BG Group Capex: US$11 billion Start date: 2020-21 Kenai LNG Size: 0.4 mtpa Partners: ConocoPhillips Start date: Operating Seasonally Offtake Agreement: NA Stewart Energy LNG Size: 5-30 mtpa Partners: Stewart Energy Start date: 2017+ Canada Kitsault Energy lng Size: 20 mtpa Partners: Kitsault Energy Start date: 2018 Aurora LNG Size: 24 mtpa Partners: CNOOC, Inpex, JGC Start date: 2021-23 Woodside Petroleum Size: TBD Partners: TBD Capex: TBD Start date: TBD WCC LNG Size: 10-30 mtpa Partners: ExxonMobil, Esso, Imperial Oil Start date: 2021-23 Triton LNG Size: 2.3 mtpa Partners: Atlas Gas, Idemitsu Kosan Co.ltd Start date: TBD H-Energy LNG Size: 4.5 mtpa Partners: H-Energy Capex: US$3 billion Start date: 2020 Kitimat LNG Size: 10 mtpa Partners: Chevron, Apache Capex: US$4.5 billion Start Offtake date: Agreement: FID 2014 2 mtpa, Kogas (2) 17 Source: FERC, API, RBC Capital Markets LNG Canada Size: 12-24 mtpa Partners: Shell, PetroChina, KOGAS, Mitsubishi Capex: US$12 billion Start date: 2020 Offtake Agreement: Partners are LNG buyers Douglas Channel LNG Size: 1.8 mtpa Partners: Haisla Nation, LNG Partners, Golar LNG Capex: US$0.5 billion Start date: 2016 Offtake Agreement: Signed, details not available Woodfibre LNG Size: 2.1; mtpa Partners: Pacific oil & gas Capex: US$1.7 billion Start date: 2018 Goldboro LNG Size: 10 mtpa Partners: Pieridae Energy Capex: CAD$5-10 billion Start date: 2019 Offtake Agreement: E.ON Global Commodities (5 mtpa)