AASA Industry Analysis: e-tailing Market Remains Up For Grabs Automotive Aftermarket Suppliers Association December 2012
AASA INDUSTRY ANALYSIS: e-tailing Market Remains Up For Grabs By Paul McCarthy, AASA vice president, Industry Analysis, Planning and Member Services In October 2012, AASA sent members a brief survey about one of the fastest growing segments in the automotive aftermarket: e-tailing. For the purposes of the AASA survey, e-tailing is defined as business-to-consumer (B2C) parts sold through the Internet directly to do-it-yourselfers (DIY) and service professionals. The overwhelming response from members indicates the growing importance of e- tailing, as well as its increasing impact on suppliers business model and future success factors. TABLE OF CONTENTS Key Findings: Market Size and Growth... 2 Key Findings: Channel Partners... 4 e-tailing Business Model for Suppliers... 5 Conclusion... 6 About the AASA e-tailing Survey... 6 2
Key Findings: Market Size and Growth Survey respondents believe e-tailing as a percent of parts purchasing has grown at an average annual rate in the high teens over the last decade, and they expect that growth rate to continue. Respondents estimate that e-tailing may have captured 11 percent of current sales versus only 5 percent in 2007. However, the significant range of responses to this question indicates a great deal of uncertainty and poor industry data on the e-tailing segment. Survey participants also projected on average that e-tailing could account for almost a quarter of parts purchased by 2017. It s important to note that survey respondents estimate of market size 11 percent of the current market for parts and accessories appears to be larger than other data sources would indicate. There is no authoritative source on the size of the e-tailing market. However, estimates drawn from ebay/forrester along with extrapolations from the Joint Aftermarket Channel Forecast model that IHS Global Insight completes for AASA and AAIA, and responses from the e-tailing survey would indicate a directional current market size of around $7 billion (retail) for e-tailed parts. This would indicate an e-tailing market share of only about 6 percent of the total aftermarket. Given that most experts believe most e-tailing sales are to consumers, this market size does imply that as much as 12 percent to 14 percent of DIY parts and accessories sales are now going through the e-tailing channel, although authoritative data remains elusive. It also is worth noting that e-tailing penetration varies and will continue to vary considerably by aftermarket product and customer segments. 3
When compared to other industries, the aftermarket is at the low end of online penetration. This may be due to the moat provided to the aftermarket by many customers need for same-day repairs. Key Findings: Channel Partners AASA e-tailing survey respondents believe that no market channel has achieved clear leadership in the e-tailing segment. The e-tailing market remains up for grabs. AASA supplier members estimate the e-tailing market is divided in roughly even shares between: traditional re-sellers: autozone.com, napaonline.com, oreillyauto.com, etc. e-tailer generalists such as amazon.com and ebay.com auto e-tailer specialists: rockauto.com, usauto.com, etc. miscellaneous sellers and sites This divided market creates greater uncertainty for suppliers in determining the best approach to servicing consumers who prefer to e-tail. 4
e-tailing Business Model for Suppliers One of the many challenges surrounding e-tailing is tackling uncertainty in the business model. Suppliers don t know how to best capture e-tailing growth and profits. Many suppliers believe that the most important factors are: ensure that they don t compete with their customers, and focus on helping existing customers adapt to e- tailing growth. Other suppliers feel that they need to leverage the new opportunities presented by this channel. Responses to AASA s e-tailing survey indicate considerable uncertainty in the correct business model. Views varied, as these sample responses show: Aftermarket manufacturers will have to be careful not to compete with their customers who all have e-tailing sites. We need to help our customers develop [better] e-tailing presences so we can keep our current relationships. Manufacturers should do direct sales via their own Web sites. If they are acting like a WD, accepting a higher price than a WD, and pay their bills faster than a WD... at some point we have to ask why we are not all selling them directly. For suppliers, it is a challenging balancing act. Suppliers are caught between helping existing customers improve and making products available wherever consumers choose to buy in other words, letting end customer choices drive channel strategies. These approaches are not necessarily mutually exclusive. As the market continues to grow, there is a consensus that branding and accurate data are vital to the successful exploitation of the e-tailing segment. This is what end customers are demanding, and the aftermarket needs to successfully deliver what customers want. 5
In any channel, the price transparency of e-tailing is creating a huge challenge to margins and market positions. In the 1980s, the retailer business model transformed the aftermarket with a two-step model that promised lower prices for DIY consumers. In the much the same way, the aftermarket now is experiencing the growth of a new channel that, in many cases, offers lower prices than existing market players. Even with an expected small market share for online channels, the ability of consumers and installers to more widely price shop online will challenge the industry s business model. In economic terms, it reduces information asymmetry, increasing buyers bargaining power and the level of competition in the market. Conclusion It remains to be seen if e-tailing will be as transformative as the arrival of the retailing model. However, there is little doubt that e-tailing will have an impact on the aftermarket greater than whatever minority market share it captures. e-tailing is clearly the fastest growing segment of the automotive aftermarket. AASA will strive to continue to provide insight on the market and supplier success strategies to help members profitably navigate through this emerging marketplace. (Margaret Beck and Bailey Watson of AASA also contributed to this article.) About the AASA e-tailing Survey The full results of the AASA e-tailing survey are only available to participants. If you are interested in participating in other AASA Industry Analysis surveys, please contact Paul McCarthy, pmccarthy@aasa.mema.org, or Bailey Watson, bwatson@aasa.mema.org. 6