The Pyrogeographyof Wildfires in the Western U.S.

The Pyrogeographyof Wildfires in the Western U.S. Dr. Michael Medler 1

The pumps buy you time, but minutes only. From this moment, no matter what we do, Titanic will founder. But this ship can't sink! She's made of iron, sir! I assure you, she can... and she will. It is a mathematical certainty. 5

Drivers Climate change The last century of fire policies Rapid development 8

Pat Oliphant 8/26/2002 WUI 9

9/29/2016 10

Dendropyrochronology dendropyrochronology: The science that uses tree rings to date and study past and present changes in wildfires. 11

How much fire would we expect if we weren't suppressing it? 12

CAPTION: Mean Fire Return Interval data for Washington and Georgia. Note that the short fire return interval frequencies in Georgia would lead us to expect far larger areas burned each year if fires were occurring at these intervals Mean Fire Return Interval 10 hectare plots 1 Year 2 Years 5 Years 13

Mean Fire Return Interval 10 hectare plots 1 Year 2 Years 5 Years = = = Mean Area Burned Each Year = 17 Hectares Mean Fire Return Interval Mean Fire Return Interval 10 hectare plots 10 Years 50 Years 250 Years = =. =. Mean Area Burned Each Year = 1.24 Hectares 14

Mean Fire Return Interval 15

2015 Western Burning Deficit Mean Fire Hectares / Year Max Total FRI Hectares / Year Min Total FRI Max Fire Deficit Hectares / Year Hectares / Year Min Fire Deficit Hectares / Year Alaska 493,519 553,840 440,037 60,322-53,482 Arizona 96,772 683,228 461,713 586,456 364,941 California 209,788 1,825,838 1,154,324 1,616,050 944,537 Colorado 32,776 703,715 566,837 670,939 534,062 Idaho 232,855 398,450 333,932 165,595 101,077 Montana 108,248 1,537,640 1,177,942 1,429,392 1,069,694 Nevada 164,263 245,016 205,261 80,753 40,999 New Mexico 115,352 1,763,024 1,081,507 1,647,673 966,156 Oregon 127,357 908,930 669,431 781,573 542,074 Utah 75,348 314,935 245,016 239,588 169,668 Washington 58,304 268,278 216,983 209,974 158,679 Wyoming 55,048 680,695 524,689 625,646 469,641 Total 1,769,629 9,883,590 7,077,674 8,113,961 5,308,045 2015 Western Burning Deficit Mean Fire Hectares / Year Max Total FRI Hectares / Year Min Total FRI Max Fire Deficit Hectares / Year Hectares / Year Min Fire Deficit Hectares / Year Alaska 493,519 553,840 440,037 60,322-53,482 Arizona 96,772 683,228 461,713 586,456 364,941 California 209,788 1,825,838 1,154,324 1,616,050 944,537 Colorado 32,776 703,715 566,837 670,939 534,062 Idaho 232,855 398,450 333,932 165,595 101,077 Montana 108,248 1,537,640 1,177,942 1,429,392 1,069,694 Nevada 164,263 245,016 205,261 80,753 40,999 New Mexico 115,352 1,763,024 1,081,507 1,647,673 966,156 Oregon 127,357 908,930 669,431 781,573 542,074 Utah 75,348 314,935 245,016 239,588 169,668 Washington 58,304 268,278 216,983 209,974 158,679 Wyoming 55,048 680,695 524,689 625,646 469,641 Total 1,769,629 9,883,590 7,077,674 8,113,961 5,308,045 16

2015 Western Burning Deficit 7.1 24.4 million hectares/year sustain regimes 1.8 million hectares/year average burned 5.3-8.1 million hectares/ year annual burning deficit 2015 Western Burning Deficit 17.5 24.4 million acres/year sustain regimes 4.4 million acres/year average burned 13.1-20.1 million acres/year annual burning deficit The map represents the estimated wildfire frequency for the period 1650-1850, according to research by Daniel Dey, Richard Guyette, and Michael Stambaugh http://wildfiretoday.com/2015/06/04/historic-fire-frequency-1650-to-1850/ 18

Mean Fire Area / Max Total FRI Min Total FRI Max Deficit Min Deficit Area State Abbrev Year Area / Year Area / Year Area / Year / Year Alabama AL 15,634 3,060,442 870,728 3,044,809 855,094 Alaska AK 493,519 553,840 440,037 60,322-53,482 Arizona AZ 96,772 683,228 461,713 586,456 364,941 Arkansas AR 8,799 4,335,284 969,479 4,326,484 960,679 California CA 209,788 1,825,838 1,154,324 1,616,050 944,537 Colorado CO 32,776 703,715 566,837 670,939 534,062 Connecticut CT 199 25,455 11,828 25,256 11,629 Delaware DE 88 76,683 16,561 76,596 16,473 Florida FL 75,935 5,689,264 1,201,262 5,613,329 1,125,326 Georgia GA 28,694 5,673,562 1,253,461 5,644,868 1,224,767 Hawaii HI 2,545 19,908 15,599 17,363 13,054 Idaho ID 232,855 398,450 333,932 165,595 101,077 Illinois IL 347 857,262 234,398 856,915 234,051 Indiana IN 568 617,538 153,012 616,970 152,444 Iowa IA 866 706,410 165,410 705,545 164,544 Kansas KS 15,250 2,512,920 685,985 2,497,670 670,735 Kentucky KY 17,553 2,387,773 647,714 2,370,220 630,161 Louisiana LA 11,110 2,877,953 683,920 2,866,843 672,811 Maine ME 435 38,600 20,869 38,165 20,435 Maryland MD 1,217 499,280 117,498 498,063 116,280 Massachusetts MA 91 70,870 22,212 70,779 22,122 Michigan MI 2,509 873,650 218,316 871,141 215,807 Minnesota MN 21,883 806,254 298,452 784,371 276,569 Mississippi MS 19,674 1,759,285 526,109 1,739,610 506,435 Missouri MO 7,741 4,326,817 960,174 4,319,075 952,433 Montana MT 108,248 1,537,640 1,177,942 1,429,392 1,069,694 Nebraska NE 23,497 2,134,925 929,290 2,111,428 905,793 Nevada NV 164,263 245,016 205,261 80,753 40,999 New Hampshire NH 59 15,431 9,625 15,372 9,567 New Jersey NJ 2,200 320,852 88,110 318,652 85,910 New Mexico NM 115,352 1,763,024 1,081,507 1,647,673 966,156 New York NY 1,536 109,931 53,858 108,395 52,322 North Carolina NC 13,002 3,731,401 870,775 3,718,399 857,773 North Dakota ND 7,255 786,067 447,619 778,812 440,364 Ohio OH 360 447,471 230,455 447,112 230,095 Oklahoma OK 51,666 5,898,443 1,380,014 5,846,777 1,328,348 Oregon OR 127,357 908,930 669,431 781,573 542,074 Pennsylvania PA 853 692,713 335,873 691,860 335,020 Rhode Island RI 5 24,121 5,702 24,116 5,697 South Carolina SC 9,642 3,034,415 648,243 3,024,773 638,601 South Dakota SD 29,118 1,255,017 768,799 1,225,900 739,682 Tennessee TN 8,512 2,195,427 621,773 2,186,915 613,261 Texas TX 169,235 14,778,667 4,266,039 14,609,433 4,096,805 Utah UT 75,348 314,935 245,016 239,588 169,668 Vermont VT 19 5,972 4,739 5,953 4,720 Virginia VA 5,971 2,207,347 610,356 2,201,376 604,385 Washington WA 58,304 268,278 216,983 209,974 158,679 West Virginia WV 10,050 570,380 343,415 560,329 333,364 Wisconsin WI 1,531 1,255,899 326,830 1,254,369 325,300 Wyoming WY 55,048 680,695 524,689 625,646 469,641 District of Columbia DC 1 965 195 964 195 Total 2,335,275 86,563,282 28,092,175 84,228,007 25,756,901 9/29/2016 CAPTION: Mean Fire Return Interval data for Washington and Georgia. Note that the short fire return interval frequencies in Georgia would lead us to expect far larger areas burned each year if fires were occurring at these intervals Mean Fire Return Interval 10 hectare plots 1 Year 2 Years 5 Years = = = Mean Area Burned Each Year = 17 Hectares 2015 US Burning Deficit WA Mean Fire Hectares / Year Max Total FRI Hectares / Year Min Total FRI Hectares / Year Max Fire Deficit Hectares / Year Min Fire Deficit Hectares / Year WV 10,050 570,380 343,415 560,329 333,364 WI 1,531 1,255,899 326,830 1,254,369 325,300 WY 55,048 680,695 524,689 625,646 469,641 DC 1 965 195 964 195 Total 2,335,275 86,563,282 28,092,175 84,228,007 25,756,901 19

2015 US Burning Deficit 69-214 million acres/year sustain regimes 5.8 million acres/year average burned 63-208 million acres/year annual burning deficit 1930-1939 Annual Average = 39 million 20

http://www.fs.fed.us/research/sustain/criteria-indicators/indicators/indicator-316.php So What 21

400 million acres are in need of treatment (USFS estimate) 400 million acres are in need of treatment (USFS estimate) 200 million acres are in the WUI 22

400 million acres are in need of treatment (USFS estimate) Forest Service is treating about 2 million acres a year We can t cut our way out of this! 24

We can t afford to keep fighting all the big fires in the backcountry Fighting fire is hard on people and ecosystems The Twisp River is turned a deep red after an aerial drop of fire retardant landed in the river as a fire flared up near Twisp, Wash. We need to reintroduce millions of acres of wildfire every year 25

However, people are building further into the forests 400 million acres are in need of treatment (USFS estimate) 200 million acres are in the WUI We only treat about 2 million per year 26

Waldo Canyon Fire, Colorado Springs, June 2012 Waldo Canyon Fire, Colorado Springs, June 2012 27

Flagstaff Fire, Boulder Colorado, June 2012 Flagstaff Fire, Boulder Colorado, June 2012 Flagstaff Fire, Boulder Colorado, June 2012 28

Boulder Colorado Colorado Springs 29

Boulder Colorado WUI 32

Total Western Lands in WUI and in WUI Buffers Total WUI, hectares 9,324,730, acres 23,041,909 Buffer hectares 4,749,570, acres 11,736,443 400 million acres are in need of treatment (USFS estimate) 400 million acres are in need of treatment (USFS estimate) 200 million acres are in the WUI 33

9/29/2016 400 million acres are in need of treatment (USFS estimate) 200 Million acres are in the WUI 11.7 Million acres in ¼ mile buffers We need to start focusing on making communities more resilient That is where mechanical thinning makes the most sense 34

That is where we can build up our markets and capacity 20 th century fire fighting careers We need new career opportunities for front country fuels management 35

We need new careers in backcountry fire monitoring Wildfire by Monte Dolack 36