NCAS-Climate, Department of Meteorology Planning for Uncertainty Resilience strategies for local adaptation and decisionmaking under extreme risk and uncertainty Rosalind J. Cornforth, Peter J. Lamb, Emily Boyd, Aondover Tarhule, M. Issa Lélé and Alan Brouder University of Reading, University of Oklahoma, and Oxfam GB Based on Perspective article in Nature Climate Change, August 2013 March 31, 2014 University of Reading 2008 www.reading.ac.uk
1941 1944 1947 1950 1953 1956 1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 Average Normalized Departure (σ) The recurring crises in SSA +1.5 +1 0-1 -1.5 10 o N Niamey 5 o N 10 o W 0 Adaptation and need to build resilience ever pressing. Strongly contrasting events are unfortunately fairly typical but likely to be exacerbated under CC, expanding populations and other environmental pressures Rainfall is more important for this region of the world than elswehere, but rainfall data are the most difficult to obtain. Back-to-back strongly contrasting extreme events lead to high food/water insecurity number of factors that contribute. Increased climate information is necessary and available but society must be able to use it for dividends to occur. Figure. 2 Time series (1941 2012) of average normalized April October rainfall departure (σ) for 20 stations in the West African Soudano-Sahelian zone (11-18 N) west of 10 E. Normalization is with respect to 1941-2000. Station locations are shown in inset map, where arrow indicates location of Niamey ODI station - How treated can in development Fig.3. Extended prepare from previous for future documentation change and of uncertainty? index 28-30, where March 2014 further details can be found. This index correlates strongly (> +0.90) with other zone-wide rainfall indices based on many more stations 29,30.
Making climate forecasts matter - the value of long-term near real-time monitoring and timely communication systems approach, small money, strategic relationships, right expertise, relevant innovation platform evidence, impact, research OPERATIONS-TO-RESEARCH MODE 3
Monitoring + Extension Monitoring by Rainwatch Rainwatch = RTMS for monitoring dry spells, heavy rain events and flooding, and irrigation planning and management. Prototype Geographical Information System (GIS) designed to increase interactions between local climate information users, their providers, and supporting groups developed to build African capacity to minimize adverse impacts of Sahel rainfall variability. See http://www.cimms.ou.edu/news/rainwatch.php Extension through AfClix AfClix = boundary organization designed to ensure that climate-related policy decisions for improving food/water security are made using best available weather and climate science by bridging country-specific gaps between decision-makers (NGO, government) and African climate scientists, and by increasing capacity on the (African) ground. See http://www.afclix.org/elgg/
Rainwatch for 2011 Severe Drought Food shortage = 19 million Niamey 2011 Cumulative rainfall v. historic percentiles Niamey 2011 Cumulative rainfall v. extreme year (1984) ITF-MCS Max = irrecoverable point
Rainwatch for 2012 Excessive Rain Food shortage = 19 +/- million? Niamey 2012 Cumulative rainfall v. historic percentiles ITF-MCS Max = irrecoverable? point Niamey 2012 Cumulative rainfall v. extreme year (1984, 1994)
Monitoring as Prediction MIGRATION OF INTERTROPICAL FRONT MCS SIZE + INTENSITY to North ~ 8.8 km day -1 ~ 15.5 km day -1 to South = ITF-MCS MAX from J. Climate, 2006, 2010 01 Jun Sept 30
Extending through AfClix You can give us the science - but what do you expect us to do with it? Understand geopolitical context - (conflict dynamics) and collaborative landscape Understand the audience and how they absorb knowledge who are the targeted groups? Ensure information delivery supports local need Influencing and ensuring impact as an outsider requires long time frames - significant effort and sustained engagement (including after the project finishes)
Extending to Sudan for 2014 Small money, strategic partnerships, synergistic connections, relevant expertise Working across scales with local partners (NGOs, community networks, government, private sector) in Sudanese conflict regions to develop EWS for Sudanese people - existing networks, new perspectives Prioritized areas based on current networks, needs and other initiatives: Northern Darfur, Southern Darfur, Kassala, Northern Kordofan, Khartoum What are the characteristics of an EW system? What needs? For whom? Challenging traditional thinking learning groups Rains - onset, duration, cessation, distribution and amount in time Information on crop varieties for specific areas Application focused - Market prices, migration routes; water availability, flood risk management Integrated, interdisciplinary and impact-focused - dialogue enhancing, relationship and capacity building 9
Extending to Sudan for 2014 Analysing historical data Monitoring and evaluating forecasts - long (seasonal) and short term Participatory planning & decision making methods Sudan one season, 2 pilot states Linking with grassroots communitybased organizations (CBOs), networks, trained NGO and extension staff, civil society and NHMCs CBOs are dependable implementing partners in fragile conflict-affected states Sudan Networks El-Fashir Rural Development Network Voluntary Rural Assistance & Development Womens Development Association No of membe r villages No of member families No of individual members 47 23,161 150,547 45 37,383 242,990 56 25,269 164,249 Total 146 85,813 557,786
Extending and scaling up across the Sahel in FCAS POPULATIONS (millions) Senegal = 14 Mali = 15 Burkina = 17 Ghana = 26 Niger = 18 Nigeria = 169 Sudan = 38 Ethiopia = 90 TOTAL ~ 387 Rwanda Uganda Tanzania
The ACE-Africa project: Attributing the impacts of external climate drivers on extreme weather events in Africa Preliminary exploration of science and policy implications through serious games 12
The CAULDRON Game Climate Attribution Under Loss & Damage: Risking, Observing, Negotiating Farming Science UNFCCC Co-designed by Pablo Suarez (Red Cross/Red Crescent Climate Centre) & the ACE-Africa Team at the Universities of Reading & Oxford
Farming Phase Science Phase Negotiation Phase Risking Observing Negotiating Get beans? Attribute to CC? Address L & D?
Summary Planning for uncertainty Drivers of variability and change Understanding Weather & Climate High impact weather and climate events Understanding Vulnerabiity Economic Environmental Health Social IMPACTS Meeting users needs builds understanding of key knowledge gaps Vulnerability (where are the susceptibilities? How good are our baselines?) Predicting changes in the probability and characteristics (intensity, spatial, temporal ) of high impact weather and climate events, including the potential for unprecedented events (Cornforth et al. (2013). UNISDR STAG Report) Reduces vulnerabilities to the impacts of climate change by building adaptive capacity to facilitate adaptive response and growth Enhances dialogue from community to policy level and vice versa Facilitates the integration of climate change adaptation into relevant new and existing policies, programmes and objectives Reinforces/develops in-country relationships Builds institutional capacity Adaptive social protection makes a link between climate change adaptation, disaster risk reduction and ODI social - How protection can development aims prepare to mitigate for future risks change and and build uncertainty? livelihood March resilience 2014 can bring benefits to the agricultural sector 15
Summary Rainfall is key given dual uncertainties (implications of global warming; potential for seasonal prediction) Monitoring and nowcasting coupled with effective communication (e.g.afclix) Provisions information rapidly that largely illiterate communities can understand & ACT ON - M&E&L Working across scales is vital and possible Iterative development between user and producer Mutual benefits (operations-to-research) Long timeframes (Funders+universities) Huge potential for the use of historical and season-to-date daily rainfall to provide realtime monitoring guidance and understand key details of the weather-toclimate continuum Future steps: Monitoring and dissemination of key variables (rainfall, soil moisture, dust) for regional livelihoods and user relevant indicators of e.g. drought onset 16