National Council on Electricity Policy Annual Meeting & Workshop Denver, CO May 8, 2018 Jeff Bladen Executive Director Market Development
Assessing the Challenge MISO region is undergoing rapid and substantial changes from portfolio evolution on both the supply and demand side Transition away from legacy coal to renewables and other new technologies Majority of energy from zero marginal cost resources (Nuclear, Hydro, Wind, Solar, Storage & DR) Many more smaller, less centralized resources Emergence of new and different forms of load from digital classes of resources (Cars, Thermostats, other Internet of Things devices) Market design, technology platform, planning and operating tools/processes developed for legacy resource mix and Distribution interface will be inadequate in this new environment MISO will assess the probability and impacts suggested by these changes and develop a strategy to address each Report on initial (Tranche 1) recommendations by Q1 2019 2
Driven by the probability and impact of emerging industry changes and the need for a strategy to address them Digitalization New classes of electric consuming devices Internet of Things Grid management from digital controls integrated into bulk operations Digitalization Decentralization De-marginalization Forces of Change Decentralization Migration from large stations to smaller distributed resources DER (storage, solar, EVs, DR) Tighter operational coordination with distribution networks Evolved value prop based on optimization new fleet of noncentral resources De-marginalization (low / no marginal costs) Substantial growth of renewables, non-price sensitive DERs, and continued availability of nuclear and hydro Reduced flexibility and potential shortages of currently free ancillaries (e.g., voltage, frequency) Market design must incentivize availability of all needed essential reliability services. 3
Mean LCOE $/MWh De-Marginalization What are the future foundations of price formation? Major growth of central station renewables (wind/solar) Maintenance of zero marginal cost legacy resources (Nuclear & Hydro) Growth of non-price sensitive demand side including energy efficiency and digital devices Unsubsidized average Levelized Cost of Energy 2009-2017 200 150 Solar Nuclear Need to improve valuation and pricing of the services beyond energy delivery. Review Products Do current products incent resources to participate at the time and locations where they are the most valuable? Augment LMP Identify and value attributes needed to reliably operate the grid and price those attributes efficiently and equitably 100 50 0 Wind Coal Gas CC* '09'10'11'12'13'14 15'16'17'19'23 Year Wind- Alberta Solar - Wind - 4 *Combined Cycle
De-Centralization How to manage an evolving transmission/distribution interface? Major growth of small-scale distributed supply and storage, including solar, combined heat and power, micro-turbines, combinations of assets Wide-spread emergence of internet connected digital devices with controls enabling grid flexibility management from load at scale Smart Thermostats Internet connected appliances Growth of Electric Vehicles Review compensation Do current compensation approaches reflect the value of services delivered? Define the Transmission & Distribution interface Manage increase in volatility of the demand at the interface & uncertainty in the timing of demand Enhance value for region through integration 5
Digitalization How can we leverage new levels of flexibility? Wide-spread emergence of internet connected digital devices with controls Enables grid flexibility management from load at scale Smart Thermostats Internet connected appliances Behind the meter storage Enables advanced monitoring & controls of distribution & transmission infrastructure Smart, interconnected flow control devices DER management systems Faster pace of change due to software upgrade cycles driving change rather than hardware replacement cycle 2.8 U.S. Smart Grid IT Systems Market Revenue (USD Billions) 2016 2025 3.3 3.9 4.6 19.5 % CAGR 5.4 6.5 7.7 9.2 11.1 13.3 16.0 Efficiency & reliability improvements 6
GW Less energy available each succeeding year combined with increased supply and demand volatility have led to increasing reliance on non-firm and emergency energy resources 150 140 130 Lower MW offers for peaks after Winter 2016 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 J-16 F-16 M-16 A-16 M-16 J-16 J-16 A-16 S-16 O-16 N-16 D-16 J-17 F-17 M-17 A-17 M-17 J-17 J-17 A-17 S-17 EcoMax no Wind Wind NSI Emerg. Range AME Peak Load 7
14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 Less energy available each succeeding year means increased reliance on intermittent or unscheduled resources These resources regularly vary from 2 to 12 GWs Wind 0 6/1/2015 9/1/2015 12/1/2015 3/1/2016 6/1/2016 9/1/2016 12/1/2016 3/1/2017 6/1/2017 9/1/2017 12/1/2017 3/1/2018 NSI 0 6/1/2015 9/1/2015 12/1/2015 3/1/2016 6/1/2016 9/1/2016 12/1/2016 3/1/2017 6/1/2017 9/1/2017 12/1/2017 3/1/2018 8
Less energy available each succeeding year resulting from aging fleet and retirements Higher outages Year Combined Rate Eq. Planned Outage Factor Eq. Maintenance Outage Factor 2011 5.34% 4.31% 1.03% 2012 5.58% 4.21% 1.37% 2013 5.56% 4.39% 1.17% 2014 6.09% 4.83% 1.26% 2015 6.33% 5.16% 1.17% 2016 6.16% 5.06% 1.10% Lower average energy offers Planning Year Average Energy Offers (MWs) Avg. Outages (MWs) 2014/15 126,400 16,800 2015/16 125,100 18,400 2016/17 117,100 22,600 9
Less energy available each succeeding year from increasing impact of outage correlation Outages have been a significant factor in the 12 Maximum Generation Emergencies since June 1, 2016 10
Less scheduled energy available each succeeding year through growth of variable energy resources Significant growth is expected for solar and wind as illustrated by MISO s generator interconnection queue 11
Net load diurnal profile* (GW) Loss of load probability Power Output* (GW) Renewable penetration MISO simulations show as renewable penetration increases, the risk of losing load shifts and compresses to a smaller number of hours 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 - Wind Solar 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 Solar ramps down sharply at end of the day. 90 80 70 60 50 40 Base 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Net peak load shifts from 3 pm to 6 pm. RISK 0.06% 0.05% 0.04% 0.03% Probability of losing load is targeted at one day in ten years over all penetration levels. While aggregate risk remains constant, the risk in particular hours increases. 30 20 10 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 Time (EST) Risk of losing load compresses to a smaller number of hours. 0.02% 0.01% 0.00% *Profile shapes represent hourly averages across all days of the 6 study years. 12
Simulations also show geographic diversity improves the ability of renewable resources to mitigate the risk of losing load Sites 10% sites scaled to 100% level* 50% sites scaled to 100% level* ELCC 11.1% 13.4% Wind 100% sites 14.0% PV 10% Sites 50% Incremental Sites 100% Incremental Sites *Generation at sites selected for 10% and 50% penetration levels was scaled to match the generation needed for the 100% penetration level. 13