Can Panel Data and Attribution Get Us Closer to TV Advertising Omniscience? Dirk Beyer, VP Data Science Research Neustar

Progression of Measuring TV Marketing Mix Models TV Attribution (time-series based TV only models) Integration of market-level TV into MTA Exposure-Level TV integration into MTA from Panel Data TV as another channel with impression tracking (maybe some day)

Aggregate Time Series Models Upper Funnel Brand Metrics + Comprehensive Population Aggregates Long Time Averages TV Digital OoH Radio Print Events Sponsor Marketing WoM Social Media Query Volume Online Activity Lower Funnel Economy Store/Site Traffic Pricing/ Promotions Competition Seasonality Sales Sophisticated system of equations, but doesn t allow for granular treatment of TV or audience insights

Immediate Response to Ad Exposure Online engagement data is used as proxy for impact of the TV ad (sales lift)

Data and Modeling for TV Attribution TV Commercial + Granular by Media Attribute + Short-term Avgs. Population Aggregates Univariate Analysis Proxy Outcomes Web Sessions by DMA Incremental Sessions Base Sessions time Highly granular airing and rating data, combined with web-visit, search, call-center response data at the minute level

MMM/MTA Hybrids Captures differences in individual customers due to their distinct attributes Captures influence of nonaddressable drivers measured at the market level as measured by an aggregate model Captures incremental conversion probability due to Digital Media drivers for the individual TV and other offline influences become part of the basepropensity to convert

MMM/MTA Hybrids + TV in Digital Context + Comprehensive + Consistent MMM/MTA Aggregate by (TV) Media attribute TV Aggregate by Geo Captures differences in individual customers due to their distinct attributes Captures influence of nonaddressable drivers measured at the market level as measured by an aggregate model Captures incremental conversion probability due to Digital Media drivers for the individual TV and other offline influences become part of the basepropensity to convert

Individual Level Set-top box and panel TV viewing data OFFLINE ONLINE CRM TV impression-level data available for viewer panels

Full interaction histories for subset of population Panel + TV in Digital context + Granular by (TV) Media attrib. + Granular by Cust. attrib. + Compreh. & Consistent [if combined with MMM] Limited by Size of Panel Banner 1 VIEWED TV Exposure Paid Search CLICKED Site Visit TV Exposure Banner 2 VIEWED Social Media Post Email 1 VIEWED Email 2 CLICKED Purchase Day 1 -------------------------------------------------------------- Day 3 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Day 10 Everyone Else Banner 1 Paid Search Banner 2 Social Email 1 Email 2 Site Visit Purchase VIEWED CLICKED VIEWED Media Post VIEWED CLICKED?? Day 1 -------------------------------------------------------------- Day 3 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Day 10 Extrapolate results from Panel to Census Treat Ratings as Viewing Probability Treat panel observations as 0/1 probability events

Bigger data, but no census data - yet Household Viewing Panels and diaries Set top box data and online video Set top box data, online video and ACR sources Census Level TV Viewing? Panel data A representative set of households, or households that can be accurately weighted to reflect the set of households. Census data Most numbers in marketing analytics refer to census data (e.g., count of all sales, all display impressions served)

Summary More granular inputs for linear and addressable TV allow for more detailed analysis of TV response by audience, creative, campaign and other attributes Voracity of the analysis depends on size of media panels, frequency of exposure and conversion rates Ability to connect to other media channels relies on robust Identity Graph