Thai Rice Production and Trade : Current and Future Outlook By Dr. Apichart Pongsrihadulchai Presented at OECD-ASEAN Regional Conference on Agricultural Policies to Promote Food Security and Agro-Forestry Productivity Seoul, Republic of Korea 12 October 2015
Relative Importance of Thai Rice To the World Ranked 6 th in terms of rice production, representing only 4% of world production and ranked 3 rd in ASEAN after Indonesia and Vietnam, representing about 15% of ASEAN production Ranked 1 st in terms of rice export value and quantity, for more than 30 years (1981-2014,except 2012-2013) Market share average about 22% (used to be 30-40%) Thai rice is one of the best quality rice in the world (Hommali Rice) 2
World Rice Production Unit : Mill.Tons (Milled Rice) Country year 2010/11 year 2011/12 year 2012/13 year 2013/14 Forecast year 2014/15 * % 13/14-14/15 China 137.000 140.700 143.000 142.530 144.500 1.38 India 95.980 105.310 105.240 106.540 102.000-4.26 Indonesia 35.500 36.500 36.550 36.300 36.500 0.55 Bangladesh 31.700 33.700 33.820 34.390 34.600 0.61 Vietnam 26.371 27.152 27.537 28.161 28.250 0.32 Thailand 20.262 20.460 20.200 20.460 20.500 0.20 Myanmar 11.060 11.473 11.715 11.957 12.150 1.61 Philippine 10.539 10.710 11.428 11.858 12.200 2.88 others 81.548 80.998 82.392 84.658 85.035 0.45 Total 449.960 467.003 471.882 476.854 475.235-0.34 Ref : *USDA December 2014 forecast year 2013/14-2014/15
World Rice Production 2014/2015 Myanmar 3% Philippine 3% Others 18% China 30% Thailand 4% Vietnam 6% Bangladesh 7% Indonesia 8% India 21% Total World Production = 475.235 Million Tons (Milled Rice)
Year World Rice Trade VS Thailand Export World Production Export Percentage of World Production Unit : Mill.Tons (Milled Rice) Export Thailand Market Share 2010/11 449.960 36.573 8.13 10.647 29.11 2011/12 467.003 39.931 11.70 6.945 17.39 2012/13 471.882 39.432 11.97 6.722 17.04 2013/14 476.854 41.879 8.78 10.300 24.59 2014/15 475.235 41.917 8.82 11.000 26.24 Average 468.187 39.946 8.53 9.123 22.87 Ref : USDA December 2014 forecast year 2013/14-2014/15
World Rice Export Unit : Mill.Tons (Milled Rice) Country year 2010/11 year 2011/12 year 2012/13 year 2013/14 Forecast year 2014/15* % 13/14-14/15 Thailand 10.647 6.945 6.722 10.300 11.000 6.80 India 4.637 10.250 10.480 10.000 8.700 13.00 Vietnam 7.000 7.717 6.700 6.500 6.700 3.08 Pakistan 3.414 3.399 4.126 3.900 3.900 0.00 USA 3.246 3.298 3.293 3.100 3.400 9.68 others 7.629 8.322 8.111 8.079 8.217 1.71 Total 36.573 39.931 39.432 41.879 41.917 0.09 Ref : *USDA December 2014 forecast year 2013/14-2014/15
World Rice Export 2014/2015 Others 20% Thailand 26% USA 8% Pakistan 9% Vietnam 16% India 21% Total World Export = 41.917 Million Tons (Milled Rice)
World Rice Import Unit : Mill.Tons (Milled Rice) Country year 2010/11 Year 2011/12 year 2012/13 year 2013/14 Forecast year 2014/15* % 13/14-14/15 China 0.575 2.900 3.483 3.900 4.000 2.56 Nigeria 2.550 3.400 2.400 3.000 3.500 16.67 Philippine 1.200 1.500 1.000 1.650 1.700 3.03 Iran 1.870 1.500 2.220 1.650 1.700 3.03 Iraq 1.036 1.478 1.294 1.400 1.450 3.57 Indonesia 3.098 1.960 0.650 1.225 1.300 6.12 others 26.244 27.193 28.385 29.054 28.267-2.71 Total 36.573 39.931 39.432 41.879 41.917 0.09 Ref : *USDA December 2014 forecast year 2013/14-2014/15
World Rice Import 2014/2015 Chaina 10% Negeria 8% Philippine 4% Iran 4% Others 67% Iraq 4 % Indonesia 3% Total World Import = 41.917 Million Tons (Milled Rice)
Planted Area, Production, Yield and Export of Thai Rice (2008-2014) Item 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Avg. Growth Rate Planted Area 70.19 69.82 72.72 80.68 83.40 81.04 77.25 76.44 2.61 - Wet season 57.39 57.42 57.50 64.57 65.30 64.95 62.08 61.32 2.20 - Dry season 12.80 12.40 15.22 16.10 18.10 16.09 15.17 15.13 4.36 % Dry season 18.24 17.76 16.80 19.96 21.70 19.85 19.64 19.79 Production 32.47 32.02 32.40 36.00 38.11 38.50 36.83 35.11 3.30 - Wet season 23.58 23.51 23.43 25.74 25.87 27.23 27.09 25.20 2.93 - Dry season 8.89 8.51 8.97 10.26 12.24 10.77 9.74 9.91 3.84 % Dry season 27.38 26.58 27.69 28.50 32.12 27.97 26.45 27.38 Yield (kg./rai.) 463 459 446 446 457 469 477 460 0.56 - Wet season 411 409 408 399 396 419 436 411 0.70 - Dry season 695 686 589 637 676 669 642 656-0.54 Export (Mill.ton Milled Rice) 10.22 8.62 8.94 10.71 6.74 6.61 10.97 8.97-2.56
Rice Planted Area in Thailand (Mill.rai) 90 80.68 83.40 81.04 80 77.25 16.1 18.1 70 70.19 69.82 72.72 16.09 15.17 12.8 12.4 15.22 60 50 40 30 57.39 57.42 57.5 64.57 65.3 64.95 62.08 20 10 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Dry season Wet season Source : Office of Agricultural Economic 6.25 rai = 1 hr
Rice Production in Thailand (Mill.ton Paddy) 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 36.00 38.11 38.50 36.83 32.47 32.02 32.40 8.89 8.51 8.97 10.26 12.24 10.77 9.74 23.58 23.51 23.43 25.74 25.87 27.23 27.09 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Dry season Wet season Source : Office of Agricultural Economic
Rice Yield of Thailand (kg./rai.) 800 700 600 695 686 589 637 676 669 642 500 400 411 409 408 399 396 419 436 Wet season 300 Dry season 200 100 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source : Office of Agricultural Economic
Mill.Baht 1000 Tons Quantity and Value of Thai Rice Export (1998-2014) 250,000 12,000 200,000 10,000 150,000 8,000 6,000 100,000 4,000 50,000 Value Quanity 2,000 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 0 Source : Office of Agricultural Economic
Thailand Rice Export Destinations, 2009-2015 No Country 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 percent of 2014 Unit : Tons 2015 (Jan-Aug) 1 Nigeria 1,070,927 1,399,806 1,549,964 1,270,957 175,818 1,239,810 11.30 504,460 2 Benin 610,926 465,701 202,040 365,963 919,041 1,112,602 10.14 366,923 3 China 328,238 264,207 267,846 143,082 327,559 734,765 6.70 554,411 4 Ivory Coast 525,330 646,846 568,046 392,761 310,098 719,771 6.56 325,627 5 South Africa 751,363 581,714 561,200 368,667 419,373 535,645 4.88 349,083 6 Cameroon 186,336 241,527 190,233 284,411 282,992 517,526 4.72 270,427 7 U.S.A. 440,367 387,914 397,499 368,271 386,844 475,536 4.33 286,887 8 Malaysia 162,437 183,677 330,832 69,686 144,281 422,167 3.85 214,253 9 Mozambique 175,446 98,111 183,948 207,031 215,543 376,176 3.43 219,358 10 PHILIPPINES 156,033 510,941 186,403 3,376 65,138 353,044 3.22 428,210 11 Others 4,248,562 4,657,922 6,257,263 3,323,329 3,541,680 4,455,709 40.62 2,370,151 Total (Tons) 8,592,830 9,047,386 10,666,120 6,954,511 6,954,511 10,969,344 100 5,889,790 Value (mill. Baht) 172,208 168,193 193,843 142,976 133,839 174,851 94,894
Thailand Rice Export by Destinations 2009-2014 1,800,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 China Nigeria PHILIPPINES Benin South Africa Ivory Coast U.S.A. Cameroon Mozambique Malaysia 200,000 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Rice Self-sufficiency Ratio of Thailand Year Production Domestic Utilization Unite : Mill.tons (Milled Rice) Self-sufficiency Ratio (%) 2008 21.44 11.95 179 2009 21.17 11.93 177 2010 21.38 11.77 182 2011 23.76 10.80 220 2012 25.15 11.14 226 2013 25.08 11.01 228 2014 24.31 10.89 223 average 23.18 11.35 204
Thailand Irrigated Area By Region 2014 Unit: mill/rai Region Agriculture Land Holding Irrigated Area % North 32.49 7.61 23.42 North - east 63.85 6.38 9.99 Central 31.13 13.08 42.02 South 21.77 3.18 14.61 Total 149.24 30.25 20.27
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Percentage of Useable Water in 4 Major Dams at 1 May of Each Year and Planted area of Major Rice (Wet Season) In Chaophraya Basin 25 % mill. rai 18 16 20 14 15 12 10 10 8 6 5 % useable water average 30 yrs % useable water rice planted area 4 2 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Year 0 Remark : 2012-2014 had rice pledging scheme 4 Major Dam = Sirikit Dam, Bhumibol Dam, Khwaenoi Dam, Pasakcholasit Dam
Percentage of Useable Water in 4 Major Dams at 1 November of Each Year and Planted area of Second Rice (Dry Season) In Chaophraya Basin Remark : 2012-2014 had rice pledging scheme 4 Major Dam = Sirikit Dam, Bhumibol Dam, Khwaenoi Dam, Pasakcholasit Dam 80 % mill. rai 14 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 % useable water average 30 yrs % useable water rice planted area 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 12 10 8 6 4 2 0
Short Term Outlook Unit : Area = Mill.rai, Production = Mill.tons (Paddy) 6.25 rai = 1 hectare Item 2015 2016 2 Change (2016-2015) Quantity % Planted Area 70.62 63.35-7.27-10.3 - Wet season 61.78 56.69-5.09-8.2 - Dry season 8.84 6.66-2.18-24.7 Production 32.62 27.26-5.36-16.4 - Wet season 27.13 23.27-3.86-14.2 - Dry season 5.49 3.99-1.50-27.3 Export 10.00 1 10.52 + 0.52 + 5.2 Remark 1 Forecast 2 Target of Rice Strategy (Restructuring Program) Water shortage No rice pledging scheme Low farmgate prices Reasons
Medium Term Outlook Unit : Area = Mill.rai, Production = Mill.tons (Paddy) 6.25 rai = 1 hectare Item 2015 2019 2 Change (2019-2015) Quantity % Planted Area 70.62 65.21-5.41-7.7 - Wet season 61.78 51.68-10.10-16.3 - Dry season 8.84 13.53 +4.69 +53.1 Production 32.62 33.20 +0.58 +1.8 - Wet season 27.13 23.74-3.39-12.5 - Dry season 5.49 9.74 +4.25 +77.4 Export 10.00 1 10.52 +0.52 +5.2 Remark 1 Forecast 2 Target of Rice Strategy (Restructuring Program) Reasons Results of restructuring program (Area of wet season decrease) Water supply will be normal, area of second rice back to normal level Yield increase due to the new extension programs of the government Export increase due to the increase in demand of quality rice
Long Term Outlook (After 2019) Planted area will decrease due to land use conversion Yield will increase due to government policy Production will be stable and match with demand Will increase due to : Reduction in Domestic Utilization Increase in world demand FAO forecast that Thailand will export 14.12 mill.tons in 2024 No problem in availability dimension Accessibility dimension is still exist but may be less than 5% undernourished
Recognition of Thai Rice 1907 The First National Rice Contest In Thailand At the World s Grain Contest held in Regina, Canada in 1933,Thai rice was first known to the world Pinkaew and other local varieties was the first, second, third and eight other prizes. 26
The Royal Message (1993) We have to grow rice because in the next 20 years our population may reach 80 million people. If we continue to reduce rice growing we may have to buy rice from aboard. Thai people will not allow this to happen. We must have rice even though growing rice in Thailand may be not competitive.we must grow it. 27
Thank you for your kind attention Sawasdee Krab 28