CDM market trends Latin American Carbon Forum Dominican Republic, 13 October 2010 Jørgen Fenhann UNEP Risoe Centre jqfe@risoe.dtu.dk www.cdmpipeline.org
The monthly number of new CDM projects is around 120
Project types Status of CDM projects Number At validation 2954 Request for registration 56 Request for review 36 Correction requested 57 Under review 26 Total in the process of registration 175 Withdrawn 49 Rejected by EB 173 Validation negative by DOE 162 Validation terminated by DOE 751 Registered, no issuance of CERs 1622 Registered. CER issued 778 Total registered 2400 Total number of projects (incl. rejected & withdrawn) 6664 Type number 2012 CERs (000) Hydro 1498 27% 473606 17% Wind 1062 19% 306524 11% Biomass energy 705 13% 188001 7% Methane avoidance 604 11% 119695 4% EE own generation 448 8% 219563 8% Landfill gas 315 6% 203095 7% EE Industry 141 3% 19410 1% Fossil fuel switch 125 2% 178888 6% EE Supply side 83 2% 60288 2% N2O 73 1% 253666 9% Coal bed/mine methane 72 1% 144003 5% Solar 70 1% 4193 0.1% EE Households 61 1% 5405 0.2% Afforestation & Reforestation 57 1% 16386 1% Fugitive 40 1% 68988 2% Cement 38 1% 33052 1% Transport 32 1% 9646 0.3% EE Service 25 0.5% 1030 0.04% HFCs 22 0.4% 476516 17% Energy distrib. 20 0.4% 16614 1% PFCs and SF6 18 0.3% 13372 0.5% Geothermal 15 0.3% 14753 1% Tidal 1 0.02% 1104 0.04% Agriculture 1 0% 18 0% CO2 capture 3 0.1% 156 0.01% Total 5529 100% 2827972 100% HFCs, PFCs & N2O reduction 113 2.0% 743554 26% Renewables 3351 61% 988181 35% CH4 reduction & Cement & Coal mine/bed 1073 19% 569006 20% Supply-side EE 551 10% 296465 10% Fuel switch 125 2.3% 178888 6.3% Demand-side EE 227 4.1% 25845 0.9% Afforestation & Reforestation 57 1.0% 16386 0.6% Transport 32 0.6% 9646 0.3%
The renewable energy category is rising fastest
The big 4 hosts about 80% of the CDM projects
Some regions are behind For all projects Popu- 2012 CER Total in the CDM Pipeline Number of small-scale Number of full scale Number of all projects kcers 2012 kcers lation per cap. Latin America 395 15.7% 493 16.9% 888 16.3% 85125 385086 13.4% 449 0.86 Asia & Pacific 2017 80.2% 2268 77.5% 4285 78.8% 618610 2306077 80.5% 3418 0.67 Europe and Central Asia 24 1.0% 37 1.3% 61 1.1% 13809 40996 1.4% 149 0.28 Africa 57 2.3% 85 2.9% 142 2.6% 29493 99527 3.5% 891 0.11 Middle-East 21 0.8% 42 1.4% 63 1.2% 9557 33922 1.2% 186 0.18 Less developed World 2514 100.0% 2925 100.0% 5439 100% 756594 2865608 100% 5093 0.56 Latin America Brazil Number 354 40% Mexico 171 19% Chile 74 8% Colombia 65 7% Peru 38 4% Argentina 34 4% Honduras 32 4% Ecuador 24 3% Panama 19 2% Guatemala 18 2% Others 60 7% Uruguay 12 1.3% Costa Rica 10 1.1% Nicaragua 8 0.9% El Salvador 7 0.8% Dominican Republic 7 0.8% Bolivia 6 0.7% Paraguay 4 0.4% Cuba 3 0.3% Jamaica 1 0.1% Bahamas 1 0.1% Guyana 1 0.1% Total 889 100%
In 2008 only 31% of the projects requesting registration were registered automatically, 36% in 2009
How large are the time delays in the project cycle? Average times delays for all CDM projects Days Months Years Validation (start comment until request registration) 326 10.9 0.9 Registration (request registration to registration) 151 5.0 0.4 Average number of days from registration until the date of first issuance: 447 14.9 1.2 Total from start comment to first issuance 923 30.8 2.6
How many CERs will be available end of 2012, due to delays, no positive validation, rejection, issuance delay and issuance succes. Expected Available Available 2008-12 2008-12 2013-20 CER's Million CERs (all types) 2012 CER's expected from existing projects in validation stage 888 0 637 2012 CER's expected from projects requesting registration 76 0 68 2012 CER's expected from registered projects 1864 422 953 Total amount of CERs expected from future projects until 2012 380 0 273 Total amount of CERs from existing projects produced after 2012 3361 Total amount of CERs issued 440 976 5293 Total requesting issuance 114 Share Of Proceeds (SOP) for the Adaptation Fund 8.8 20 106 Annual amount available 195 662
There are now 58 programmatic programmes in the CDMPipeline 19% of them in Latin America Host country PoAs Bangladesh 1 Solar PV, 1 EE households stoves, 1 Households lighting Brasil 3 Methane avoidance, 1 Landfill gas China 1 Agricultural irrigation, 4 Methane avoidance domestic manure, 1 Eff. electricity distribution Egypt 1 Transport scrapping old vehicles India 2 EE householdes lighting, 1 Biomass briquittes, 1 EE chemicals industry, 1 Eff. electricity distribution, 1 EE service eff. chillers, 1 landfill composting, 1 Solar water heating, 1 Methane avoidance Guatamala 1 EE households stoves Honduras 1 Hydro El Salvador 1 Household stoves Indonesia 1 Methane avoidance palm oil waste, 1 Mehtane avoidance composting, 1 Hydro run of river, Mexico 1 Households lighting, 1 EE households stoves Morocco 1 Landfill gas Nepal 1 Methane avoidance domestic manure Nicaragua 1 Reforestation Peru 1 Fossil fuel switch Philippines 1 Methane avoidance manure, 1 Household lighting, 1 landfill gas Senegal 1 Households lighting Singapore 2 EE service cooling, 1 EE household lighting South Africa 3 Solar water heating, 1 EE households stoves South Korea 1 EE Food industry, 1 EE own generation, 1 EE household lighting Thailand 1 Methane avoidance manure Tunesia 1 Solar water heating Uganda 1 Landfill composting Vietnam 1 Solar water heating, 3 Hydro, 1 Methane avoidance domestic manure Yemen 1 Eff. electricity distribution Total 58
About 7400 Million US$ has been invested in registered CDM projects in Latin America, about 10% of the global total Host country Registered All years 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Share of (Rejected projects excluded) projects Million US$ investments China 969 50149 0 59 1329 5323 10556 18627 14255 66.6% India 534 11498 0 106 1312 3964 1227 3962 928 15.3% Latin America 479 7377 19 400 2464 1554 1433 1200 306 9.8% Rest of Asia 321 3589 0 87 909 422 341 1062 768 4.8% Africa 45 1552 0 110 386 291 65 337 363 2.1% Middle-East 26 841 0 0 2 301 65 473 0 1.1% Europe and Central Asia 26 261 0 6 123 5 5 110 11 0.3% Total 2400 75267 19 768 6526 11860 13693 25771 16631 100.0%