Southern Interior Beetle Action Coalition Forest Sector Trend Analysis Fact Sheet A project submitted by: Contacts: In conjunction with: Forest Ecosystem Solutions Ltd. #227 998 Harbourside Dr. North Vancouver BC V7P 3T2 tel. 604-998-2222 fax: 604-986-0361 Chris Niziolomski, R.P.F. email: chris_niz@forestecosystem.ca Jonathan Armstrong, R.P.F. email: jarmstrong@forestecosystem.ca DE Gyton and Associates Submitted to: Southern Interior Beetle Action Coalition
Introduction This fact sheet has been compiled as a part of the Forest Sector Trend Analysis project, completed for the Southern Interior Beetle Action Coalition (SIBAC). The intent of this document is to provide a comprehensive yet compelling summary of the impacts of the Mountain Pine beetle (MPB) epidemic thus far on timber supply, log flow, and industrial milling capacity in the (TSA). An accompanying wall map Kamloops Timber Supply Area Forest Sector Trends Analysis and the Mountain Pine Beetle has been produced that provides visual detail on the estimated impacts of the MPB in the Kamloops TSA. Information in this fact sheet is organized into the following sections: Historical Timber Supply Reviews / Allowable Annual Cut levels, Projected volume loss associated with the Mountain pine beetle epidemic, Milling capacity in the TSA, Actual vs. planned harvest, and Summary of fibre movement in and out of the TSA. Timber Supply Review / Allowable Annual Cut Allowable Annual Cut (AAC) determinations are required to be conducted every 5 years although the normal schedule is often altered when events that have a significant impact on timber supply occur, such as large fires, insect infestations, windthrow events or if new data becomes available. AACs are determined by the Chief Forester and are based largely on the results of the timber supply review analysis process (TSR). The TSR schedule for the Kamloops TSA is shown in Table 1 below. Table 1 Timber supply review milestones for the Kamloops TSA Timber Supply Milestone Date TSR 1 Analysis Report May 1995 TSR 1 Determination July 1996 TSR 2 Analysis Report July 2001 TSR 2 Determination January 2003 TSR 3 Uplift Announcement January 2004 2008 Rationale Released May 2008 Figure 1 and Table 2 illustrate the changes in AAC in the Kamloops TSA over the last 27 years. Starting with TSR 1, the results of each subsequent AAC is illustrated. From 1981 to 2004 the AAC in the Kamloops TSA remained relatively constant. In 1996 the Chief Forester partitioned the cut to direct harvest into Cedar / Hemlocks stands and for pulpwood harvesting. Following the devastating 2003 fire season, the Chief Forester added a 670,000 m3 per year uplift to salvage fire damaged timber along with a 1,000,000 m3 / yr uplift to salvage MPB affected stands. In 2008 the uplift was lowered slightly resulting in a total AAC of 4,000,000 m3/yr. Page 2 of 13
Table 2 AAC History of the Kamloops TSA Year Fire Salvage MPB Salvage Partition Regular Total AAC Details 1981 - - - 2,350,000 2,350,000 1989 - - - 2,412,280 2,412,280 Land Transfer from 100 Mile 1994 - - - 2,416,680 2,416,680 Land Transfer from TFL 35 1996 - - 286,000 2,393,180 2,679,180 Cedar/Hemlock Partition + Pulpwood Partition 2003 - - - 2,682,770 2,682,770 2004 670,000 1,000,000 306,000 2,376,770 4,352,770 2003 Fire / MPB Uplifts 2008-1,994,000 306,000 1,700,000 4,000,000 MPB Uplifts / Partitions 1981 - - - 2,350,000 2,350,000 5,000,000 4,500,000 4,000,000 3,500,000 Partition MPB Salvage Fire Salvage Regular AAC (m3/yr) 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000-1981 1989 1994 1996 2003 2004 2008 Figure 1 AAC History in the Kamloops TSA The species profile for Kamloops TSA has been adapted from the MOFR MPB analysis datasets, and is summarized in Table 3. Approximately 27% of the Kamloops THLB is comprised of stands dominated by lodgepole pine. The other major species, covering approximately 31% of the THLB is Douglas-fir. Other species including balsam, spruce, cedar, hemlock and larch also occur as stand leading species within the Kamloops TSA. Table 3 Species profile for the Kamloops TSA Page 3 of 13
Species Estimated % of THLB THLB Area (ha) Balsam 8.8% 93,777 Cedar 3.5% 37,431 Deciduous 1.3% 13,467 Fir 31.3% 331,753 Hemlock 2.6% 27,617 Larch 0.0% 140 Other 6.7% 71,102 Pine 27.3% 289,877 Spruce 18.5% 195,840 Timber supply review analysis reports generally include a basecase harvest forecast, which provides an estimate of the sustainable harvest using the best available data at the time and a number of sensitivity analysis scenarios. The sensitivity analysis scenarios test the impact that changes in assumptions will have on the timber supply over short (0-20 years), medium (20-100 years) and long (100-250 years) time periods. Scenarios are designed to examine areas of uncertainty. Figure 2 shows the Basecase harvest scenarios from each of the 3 timber supply analysis reports completed for the Kamloops TSA as well as a March 2006, timber supply summary study commissioned by the Council of Forest Industries (COFI) which covered 18 interior TSAs affected or at risk due to the MPB. 5000000 4500000 4000000 Annual Harvest Volume (m3/yr) 3500000 3000000 2500000 2000000 1500000 1000000 500000 0 TSR1 TSR 2 TSR 3 COFI 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 Decades from initial projection date Figure 2 Kamloops TSA timber supply analysis basecase harvest forecasts. *COFI analysis was not completed to the same standard as the TSR analysis. Results from this project can be compared with TSR, but should not be viewed as an indepth analysis. The COFI analysis scenario shown above assume no restrictions on harvesting. Page 4 of 13
As illustrated in Figure 2, long term timber supply projections in the Kamloops TSA have ranged from, 1,958,000 m 3 /yr per year in TSR 1, to 2,246,000 m 3 /yr cubic metres per year in TS2, an increase of approximately 15. The most significant differences between the timber supply forecasts are; the short term uplift applied in 2004, the mid-term timber supply deficit, projected in TSR 1, but not in subsequent analysis projects and the long term harvest forecast that has increased by approximately 200,000 m 3 /yr TSR 1. Individual TSR analysis projects are discussed in detail in the following sections. Timber Supply Review 1 (1996 2003) The TSR 1 basecase scenario produced an initial harvest level of 2,393,180 m 3 /yr, which was slightly lower than the Chief Forester s AAC determination of 2,679,180 m 3 /yr. In his determination the Chief Forester found that the MOFR (BCFS at that time) basecase was a reasonable representation of the timber supply in the Kamloops TSA. He did however, two factors that may have contributed to an overestimation of the timber supply. The factors were, terrain mapping in several areas and differences between the analysis assumptions and the forest practices code in relation to riparian management rules. The Chief Forester also identified landbase changes in relation to the new (at the time) Kamloops LRMP as an important factor in his determination. Issues around site productivity and harvesting of older cedar/ hemlock stands were also noted in the determination. Timber Supply Review 2 (2003-2004) Short term harvest forecasts in TSR 2 were significantly different from those in TSR 1. The mid term harvest level in TSR 2 was also significantly higher and maintained for a longer period of time, compared with TSR 1. In his determination the Chief Forester identified, site productivity and the cedar / hemlock landbase as key areas of uncertainty in the analysis when looking at the short term. With respect to the long term timber supply the Chief Forester noted that increases in site productivity estimates would have a stabilizing influence and result in an increased long term harvest forecast. Kamloops MPB / Fire Uplift (January 2004) Following the catastrophic fire season of 2003 and the outbreak of the MPB, the MOFR quickly applied for an AAC uplift in the Kamloops TSA. A quick analysis of the impacts was done and the Chief Forester granted a temporary uplift of 670,000 m 3 /yr and an additional 1,000,000 m 3 /yr to be directed towards salvage of mountain pine beetle killed stands. The uplifts were to be maintained for 3 years. Timber Supply Review 4 (January 2008) The 2008 AAC determination lowered to overall AAC by 8.1% to 4 million cubic meters. The AAC was partitioned to include 1.7 million m3 from regular harvest (stands dominated by Douglas-fir, spruce or balsam), 1.994 million m3 for harvesting MPB killed pine stands, 200,000 m3 for harvesting cedar hemlock stands, 86,000 m3 for pulp wood harvesting and 20,000 of deciduous harvesting. Key issues identified in this determination were; most of the fire salvaging has been completed following the 2003 fire season, the non-pine mid term timber supply as related to non-pine species harvesting in the short term, and site productivity estimates. COFI MPB Analysis The COFI MPB analysis assumed that all susceptible stands were attacked by the MPB at the beginning of the second five year period. Simple shelf life assumptions were then applied to the pine volume based on the climate zones found within the TSA. The shelf life assumption used in this analysis was: 5 years for wet climates, 10 years in moist climates and 15 years in dry climates. Four scenarios were completed in this analysis including: a baseline, baseline with pine harvest priority, harvest all pine, and harvest all pine with reduced constraints. The most aggressive salvage option (harvest all pine with reduced constraints) is presented in Figure 2. Initial harvest levels as high as 4,352,800 m3/yr were tested. This aggressive salvage option also resulted in the highest long term harvest level (2,308,600 m 3 /yr). Page 5 of 13
MOF MPB Analysis (2007) The provincial MPB analysis completed by the MOFR in 2007 provided a province wide context for the MPB outbreak. This analysis used some broad analysis assumptions for each TSA to generate a short term forecast and test the impact of two different priority rules; 1. Focus all harvest on the pine-dominated stands. 2. Avoid harvesting in pine-dominated stands with MPB mortality. Results were presented in terms of % impact on the medium term harvest level. The two scenarios were compared and classes of % impacted were reported. The results for the Kamloops TSA showed that when the harvest focus is shifted from infested, pine dominated stands to stands that have not been infested, the mid-term timber supply impact shifts from the 21-30% category to the 41-72% category. This result indicates that with focused, appropriate salvage harvest scheduling, the MPB AAC impacts can be significantly mitigated. More detailed results were not provided for this analysis. Range of harvest forecast levels (Pre and Post MPB outbreak) Timber supply analysis results are often presented in the form of a basecase (describes the best estimates of current reality) and sensitivity analysis (designed to quantify the impact that a specific area of uncertainty will have on the result). Figure 3 presents two harvest forecasts for the Kamloops TSA, along with the upper and lower bounds of the scenario results. The harvest forecasts were selected to represent the TSA before the MPB outbreak (TSR 1) and the most recent accepted analysis (TSR 3). The range between the upper and lower estimates has remained relatively constant from TSR 1 to the current analysis. This indicates a relative level of certainty around the long term timber supply. Page 6 of 13
4500000 4000000 Annual Harvest Volume (m3/yr) 3500000 3000000 2500000 2000000 1500000 1000000 500000 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 Decades from initial projection date Pre MPB Basecase Pre MPB Low Pre MPB High TSR 4 Basecase TSR 4 Low TSR 4 High Figure 3 Range of harvest levels (pre and post MPB outbreak) Predicted Growing Stock Loss to Mountain Pine Beetle Predicted losses in pine volume due to the MPB are illustrated in Figure 4 and Table 4. The volume loss information as summarized is based solely on the predicted spread of the MPB (BCMPB Year 4) and associated shelf life curves. Volume loss estimates shown below are in the absence of harvest. With an AAC of nearly 3 million cubic metres per year, a significant portion of the pine volume in the TSA can be salvaged. The spread estimates and shelf life decay curves are produced by the MOFR as a part of the ongoing MPB analysis projects. These estimates are the most comprehensive predictions of future MPB epidemic for the BC interior. They are however estimates and the reviewers should recognize that they represent a single view of the progression of the epidemic. Volume loss prediction was modeled by applying the shelf life to the pine portion of each stand that is deteriorating annually. These estimates are generated using provincial growth and yield models to derive the volume by forest stand. Once the initial, pre attack volume has been calculated for each year following the initial MPB attack, the decay of commercially viable fibre is calculated based on shelf life decay curves. The results are summarized below in the form of losses in pine growing stock. Growing stock is an estimation of the amount of live wood fibre (all ages) in the timber harvesting land base component of the TSA. This analysis indicates a total potential growing stock loss of approximately 28 million cubic metres (67% of the pine growing stock in the TSA). 32 million cubic metres of the volume loss is predicted to occur in the next five years. As mentioned above, with the pine portion of the AAC approximately 1,900,000 cubic metres a year (total cut of 19 million m3 over a ten year period) a significant portion of the lost volume cannot be salvaged within the TSA under the current AAC. The actual harvestable volume and subsequently how much of the affected volume is salvaged depends on the Page 7 of 13
operability (potential return, given the state of decay minus the cost to harvest and manufacture salable products) of the stands along with the AAC. Pine Growing Stock (m3) 90,000,000 80,000,000 70,000,000 60,000,000 50,000,000 40,000,000 30,000,000 20,000,000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10,000,000-1999 2003 2008 2013 2018 2023 Reference Year Figure 4 Predicted pine growing stock losses by age class due to MPB Table 4 Predicted pine growing stock losses in the Kamloops TSA Age Class Pine Growing Stock (m3) 1999 2003 2008 2013 2023 2033 9 635,134 631,780 567,084 325,492 191,618 178,850 8 15,998,394 15,921,620 13,858,138 7,271,915 4,598,890 4,407,153 7 24,569,948 24,475,710 20,892,357 10,482,870 6,957,248 6,752,363 6 16,748,726 16,668,548 14,459,436 7,852,393 5,194,352 4,984,605 5 10,505,302 10,475,110 9,413,948 5,195,895 2,892,555 2,670,735 4 6,488,423 6,474,673 5,847,220 3,059,299 1,600,472 1,484,433 3 730,526 730,136 715,213 645,920 565,823 520,791 2 83,478 83,425 81,899 77,135 75,366 75,125 1 8,818,080 8,732,512 7,519,147 5,291,718 4,765,536 4,726,849 In the table a significant portion of age class 1 and 2 volume is lost. This loss reflects the assumptions used in the recent MOFR MPB analysis that the MPB is affecting all pine stands, not just those of merchantable size. Page 8 of 13
Mountain Pine Beetle Assumptions The early TSR analysis reports did not specify what, if any assumptions were made around the Mountain pine beetle. Assumptions from the COFI report and the MOFR 2007 analysis are given in the table below. Table 5 MPB assumptions summary Analysis Project Shelf-life Regeneration Forest Cover constraints TSR 1 Not specified Not specified Not specified TSR 2 Not specified Not specified Not specified TSR 3* Not specified Not specified Not specified TSR 4 2 years for Sawlog Normal regeneration Not specified COFI Separate shelf life values for wet, moist and dry climates (5,10, 15 years) Unsalvaged sites considered notstocked for 15 years then regenerated to 80% of natural volume. MPB affected stands contribute to VQO, watershed and green up targets. MOFR 2007 Stands loss volume by 50 % a year, down to 0% at year 4. Unsalvaged sites considered not stocked for 30 years then regenerate naturally MPB affected stands contribute to VQO, watershed and green up targets. *Shelf life is discussed in the Chief Foresters Rationale document, no specific shelf life figures are given. Summary of Timber Supply Analysis in the Kamloops TSA The major issues in timber supply review in the Kamloops TSA relate to the 2003 Fire Season and the approximately 27,000 hectares of timber harvesting landbase that was burned, and the mountain pine beetle epidemic. These two short term impacts on Timber supply outweigh all other influences on the timber supply in the TSA. In the longer-term, issues surrounding harvesting of cedar / hemlock stands, site productivity and availability on non-pine stands are key in the TSA. Comparison of Actual vs Planned Harvest Actual harvest volumes by species are compiled based on the MOFR actual scale records (taken from harvest billing system) in Figure 5 and Table 6. Planned harvest volumes are an approximate calculation based on current species distribution in the TSA. To estimate planned harvest profiles, the AAC s in place during the reference years were compared with merchantable species distributions within the TSA. Since 1996, the actual harvest compared with the AAC in the Kamloops TSA has ranged from 94% in 1996, 113% in 2000, 111% in 2003 to 93 % in 2006. Page 9 of 13
Scaled Harvest Volume (m3) Thousands 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 Spruce Pine Other Larch Hemlock Fir Deciduous Cedar Balsam 1,000 500-1996 1996 2000 2000 2003 2003 2006 2006 Reference Year Figure 5 Actual vs planned harvest volumes Table 6 Actual vs. planned harvest volumes percentages (actual / planned volume) Species 1996 2000 2003 2006 Balsam 137% 113% 91% 59% Cedar 173% 231% 208% 83% Deciduous 29% 100% 65% 11% Fir 51% 84% 79% 42% Hemlock 110% 149% 94% 21% Larch (<1% o of profile) 443% 1570% 2288% 1701% Other 4% 7% 3% 2% Pine 113% 155% 179% 201% Spruce 138% 112% 100% 87% Page 10 of 13
Summary of Fibre Movement The Kamloops TSA licensees overharvested their AAC by an average of 103 percent during the four study years. This TSA exported more volumes to other TSAs in an absolute sense (1,367,000 m3/year) and was the second highest exporter relative to its harvest (142 percent). Within SIBAC TSAs, most of the volume leaving the Kamloops TSA flows to the Okanagan or Merritt TSAs. The highest volume two-way flow among all SIBAC TSAs is between the Okanagan and Kamloops an average of 587,000 m3 moved south into the Okanagan and 142,000 m3 flowed north into Kamloops during the four study years. However, even larger volumes were exported from the Kamloops TSA from SIBAC and flowed into the Robson Valley and 100 Mile House non-sibac TSAs (855,000 m3/year). Volumes also moved from the Northern Interior and the coast into Kamloops (73,000 m3 and 20,000 M3 respectively). Private lands within the Kamloops TSA produced an average of 110,000 m3/year. Most of this was consumed internally, but large volumes of private logs also went to the Robson Valley and 100 Mile House TSAs. Significant SB4 volumes flowed into Kamloops from the Okanagan, Robson Valley and 100 Mile House TSAs. A total of 25,800 m3 of Kamloops volumes was exported from BC during the four years of the study mostly to the USA plus a small amount of hardwood to Alberta. No chip exports or imports were noted within the data. The following table and chart summarize the log flow data for the Kamloops TSA and include all tenures, exports and imports for the four sample years. Chip exports and imports have been excluded. For further detail, the reader is urged to reference to the detailed spreadsheets. The pivot table showing the movement of volumes into the major mill yards by TSA source may also be of interest. Table 7 Summary of log volume flow in and out of the Kamloops TSA Destination / Source TSA Volume Movement in and out of the Kamloops TSA 1996 2000 2003 2006 In Out In Out In Out In Out Arrow 255-1,159 (58) - (29) - (5,698) Boundary (42) - 2,215-10,318-1,673 (112,579) Cranbrook - - - - - - 13 - Golden 2,152 (398) 1,156 (1,940) - (8,529) - (411) Invermere 394 - - 17 - - - (311) Kootenay 257-281 - - - - (420) Lillooet 13,763 (27,370) 23,766 (21,958) 6,734 (28,760) 8,015 (37,663) Merritt 11,205 (203,710) 87,951 (34,774) 114,556 (257,859) 109,629 (662,858) Okanagan 123,123 (299,925) 205,611 (512,924) 135,652 (737,995) 105,271 (798,935) Revelstoke 105,526 (19,947) 54,652 (900) 7,345 (9,235) 83 (2,155) Northern 13 19 41,485-25,627 224 5,724 (92) Other 82,296 (717,120) 105,531 (694,075) 156,980 (830,732) 141,384 Coast 324 (1,724) 15,977 (1,375) 3,293 (654) 471 (848) Arrow 255-1,159 (58) - (29) - (5,698) Boundary (42) - 2,215-10,318-1,673 (112,579) Cranbrook - - - - - - 13 - Golden 2,152 (398) 1,156 (1,940) - (8,529) - (411) Invermere 394 - - 17 - - - (311) Page 11 of 13
Total Volume Flow Timber Supply Area (Including TFL, WL, Private and Federal) 40 20 Volume (10,000s m3)) - (20) (40) (60) (80) IN 1996 OUT 1996 IN 2000 OUT 2000 (100) IN 2003 OUT 2003 (120) (140) IN 2006 OUT 2006 Arrow Boundary Cranbrook Golden Invermere Kootenay Lake Lillooet Merritt Okanagan Revelstoke Northern Interior Other Southern Interior Coast Figure 6 Volume flow in and out of the Kamloops TSA Sources of Information Timber Supply Review Kamloops TSA Timber Supply Analysis. B.C. Ministry of Forests. May 1995. Rationale for Allowable Annual Cut Determination. B.C. Ministry of Forests. July 1, 1996 Timber Supply Review Analysis Report. B.C. Ministry of Forests. July 2001. Rationale for Allowable Annual Cut Determination. B.C. Ministry of Forests. January 1, 2003. Rationale for Allowable Annual Cut Determination. B.C. Ministry of Forests. January 1, 2004 Rationale for Allowable Annual Cut Determination. B.C. Ministry of Forests. January 1, 2008 Log Movement Alberta Ministry of Sustainable Resource Development Log Volumes Exported to British Columbia, 1999 to 2006, internal query Ministry of Forests and Range - Harvest Billing System (HBS), internal queries of Original Scale Volumes, SB4 Log Load Movements and Scale site listings Ministry of Forests and Range Harvest Billing System (HBS), timber mark queries http://apps15.for.gov.bc.ca/hbs/opq/p480.jsp Ministry of Forests and Range Economics & Trade Branch - Export Management System (EMS) log export database internal queries Ministry of Forests and Range Economics & Trade Branch - chip movement internal working data Page 12 of 13
Provincial Level Projections of the Current Mountain Pine Beetle Outbreak, Year 4. http://www.for.gov.bc.ca/hre/bcmpb/ Statistics Canada International Trade Division Exports for Specified HS Codes to the United States, Cleared Through British Columbia Ports, 1996, 2000, 2003, 2006 Statistics Canada International Trade Division Imports for Specified HS Codes from the United States, Cleared Through British Columbia Ports, 1996, 2000, 2003, 2006 Page 13 of 13