N Gas plan on Cornwall Ave Announcements Midterm has ended I expect to post grades this afternoon Check your grades. If there is a problem, you have one week to contact the TA, Claire Walli Assignment two, ecological footprint, due next Thursday, 10 AM. The assignment will become available on Tuesday. This week s topic: Energy Energy Hubbert Curve Today: Fossil fuels Have we passed oil s tipping point? Fossil fuel formation, production, and use Costs and consequences of fossil fuel use Tuesday Nuclear energy solution to fuel problems? Energy efficiency (Joel Swisher, WWU E. Inst) Next Thursday: Renewable energy 1
Supply and Demand Price per unit Supply Curve (Marginal Cost) Demand Curve (Marginal Benefit) Quantity (number of units) Inelastic supply Price per unit Supply Curve (Marginal Cost) Demand Curve (Marginal Benefit) Quantity (number of units) 2
Recent data on oil production World petroleum production 95000 Thousand barrels per day 90000 85000 80000 75000 70000 2000 2005 2010 2015 Data from Energy Information Administration Recent history of gasoline prices Gasolineprice per gallon $4.50 $4.00 $3.50 $3.00 $2.50 $2.00 $1.50 $1.00 $0.50 Iran-Iraq war Iraq invades Kuwait Hurricane Katrina Great recession $0.00 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Data from U.S. Department of Energy and Bureau of Labor Statistics Gas prices in today s dollars Has oil s tipping point passed? Gasolineprice per gallon $6.00 $5.00 $4.00 $3.00 $2.00 Iran-Iraq war Hurricane Katrina Iraq invades Kuwait $1.00 Great recession $0.00 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Gas prices converted into today s dollars using Consumer Price Index 3
US and world energy consumption (2009-2011) Nation 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 % of world China 78.9 86.0 94.9 103.7 105.9 20.2 USA 99.3 94.6 97.5 97.5 95.1 18.1 Russia 29.6 26.8 30.0 30.4 31.5 6.0 India 19.7 21.6 22.9 23.5 23.9 4.6 Japan 21.8 20.6 21.8 20.9 20.3 3.9 Africa 16.3 16.2 16.7 16.7 17.3 3.3 Germany 14.1 13.2 14.0 13.5 13.5 2.6 Canada 13.5 13.1 13.0 13.4 13.4 2.5 Brazil 10.5 10.4 11.5 11.9 12.1 2.3 S. Korea 9.9 10.0 10.8 11.3 11.5 2.2 Quadrillion BTU (US EIA) Energy sources Petroleum*, coal*, natural gas*, nuclear, hydroelectric, wind, biomass, solar, tides, ocean temperature gradient, geothermal, redoxchemistry of marine sediments, others Primary energy source: Natural resource that can be exploited Secondary energy source: Produced from primary energy source (e.g., electricity) Fossil fuel formation Form from buried, preserved organic material Steps: Organic matter production Preservation and burial Chemical alteration of humus to form kerogen (diagenesis) Catagenesis or cracking to form fossil fuels 4
Coastal areas with high rates of organic carbon preservation Global Energy Consumption Summary of Ecosystem Functions in the United States Energy flow Nutrient flow (Energy + Nutrients) Sustainability lesson: Energy from the sun Nutrients recycled Fossil fuel: 82% Solar power: 0.18% Wind power: 1.2% Solar: < 0.02% From Energy Information Admin. (2012) 5
Production Cost of Electricity (in the U.S. in 2014) Energy consumption in the US From http://en.openei.org/apps/tcdb/ Fossil Fuel Use (2011) Petroleum development Exploration Determination of reserves Steadily decreasing production until production is no longer economically viable (~ 10% decrease per year) Exploration Result: Hump-shaped Hubbert curve 6
Trend in US oil production Recent data on oil production Lower 48 states production: Green Hubbert prediction: Red World petroleum production 95000 Thousand barrels per day 90000 85000 80000 75000 70000 2000 2005 2010 2015 Data from Energy Information Administration Recent changes in oil production US and Saudi Oil production Production Oil Production (thousand barrels per day) 13000 12000 Saudi Arabia 11000 10000 9000 8000 7000 6000 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Oil production 15000 Thousand barrels per day 14000 13000 12000 Saudi Arabia 11000 10000 United States 9000 8000 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 7
Oil producers and consumers Hubbert 1962 prediction vs data Nation Production (2014) % Nation Consumption (2013) % USA 14020.8 15.0 USA 18961.1 20.8 Saudi Arabia 11623.7 12.5 China 10480.0 11.5 Russia 10847.1 11.6 Japan 4556.8 5.0 China 4598.1 4.9 India 3660.0 4.0 Canada 4383.3 4.7 Africa 3600.7 3.9 UAE 3473.7 3.7 Russia 3493.0 3.8 Iran 3376.6 3.6 Brazil 3003.0 3.3 Iraq 3364.2 3.6 Saudi Arabia 2961.0 3.2 Brazil 2966.4 3.2 Germany 2435.1 2.7 Mexico 2811.9 3.0 Canada 2374.5 2.6 1000 barrels per day Consequences of oil consumption Costs of oil consumption Emission of greenhouse gasses and other air pollutants Oil spills and continual contamination of water supplies (by combustion products too) Trade deficit, large monetary expenditures Dependence upon Middle East for energy (Political and military involvement, spending) Sources of US Oil Annual expenditure on oil imports: + costs of military engagement in oil producing regions Oil costs the US 2-3 times more than the market value What should the US do about the hidden cost of oil? Have we past the peak of oil production? How long can we extend oil production via new drilling technology such as fracking? 8
Alternatives: Coal, the other black fuel US coal reserves (24% of world s coal) Reserves: ~200y Problems with coal Production of electricity Dirtiest of fossil fuels Strip mining degrades land Many pollutants emitted from coal-fired power plants: sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, carbon dioxide, mercury, and others But, globally the most important fuel for producing electricity 9
Environmental impacts of coal Kingston Fossil Plant coal fly ash spill Dec. 2008 >1 billion gallons of coal ash slurry released Covered 300 acres Environmental impacts of coal Duke Energy Plant coal fly ash spill February 2014 40,000 tons of coal ash slurry released Contaminated Dan River CO 2 emissions by source (US) Natural gas Plusses: Less CO 2 per BTU compared to coal & oil Cleaner than coal (fewer other air pollutants) Relatively easy to transport Minuses Methane releases Fracking necessary to release tight gas Still non-renewable, CO2 producing fuel 10
Energy outlook Petroleum: Has it peaked? Unconventional reserves? Tar sands? Arctic ocean? Natural Gas: between ~11 and ~100 years (Depending on how much you can get by fracking) Coal: 200 y (US), 100 y (world average) What can we do about the apparent impending oil shortage? Short term: Increase fuel efficiency of vehicles Longer term: Alternative fuels for transportation - electrification Increased efficiency and alternative sources for electricity What s the best energy policy? 1: Conservation and increased efficiency 2: Which energy sources should we develop? Petroleum (trade, national security, pollution) Coal (air and water pollution) Natural gas (fracking) Nuclear (hazards) Renewable energy Hydroelectric (dams)? Solar (technological challenges) Natural gas (transport) Biomass (landscape changes, food production) Wind Tidal power 11