Session III Major Investment Projects - Canada

BIREGIONAL WEC FORUM NORTH AMERICA, LATIN AMERICA & THE CARIBBEAN Session III Major Investment Projects - Canada John Ritchie Hatch Acres Inc. Niagara Falls, Canada

Presentation Outline 1. Canada s Energy Resources in a World Context 2. Distribution of Resources in Canada 3. Overview of Committed and Near-Term Projects 4. Major Projects 5. Summary

1 Canada s Energy Resources in a World Context World Canada % Rank Crude Oil Reserves (Billion bbl) Crude Oil Production (Billion bbl/yr) 1300 29 174 1.1 13 4 2 8 Natural Gas Reserves (TCF) Natural Gas Production (TCF/yr) 6300 94 56 6 1 7 20 3 Coal Reserves (Million Tonnes) Coal Production (Million Tonnes) 910,000 5500 6600 66 1 1 13 20 Electricity Generation (Twh/yr) 17,000 570 3 8 Nuclear Energy Generation (Twh/yr) 2800 90 3 7 Tech. Hydro Potential (Twh/yr) Hydroelectric Energy Generation (Twh/yr) 14,000 2800 1000 350 7 12 4 1 Source: Canadian Centre for Energy Information and BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2005

World s Top Proved Oil Reserves 300 250 260 World Total : 1300 Billion Barrels Billion Barrels 200 150 100 50 180 126 115 99 96 77 60 39 35 22 0 Source: NR Can and Oil and Gas Journal, December 20, 2004. Figures are as of January 1, 2005.

2 Distribution of Resources in Canada Crude Oil and Equivalent Reserves - Alberta (78%), Saskatchewan (10%), Atlantic Offshore (8%), Northern Canada (3%), BC (1%), Natural Gas Reserves - Alberta (74%), BC (18%), Saskatchewan (5%), Atlantic Offshore (1%), Mackenzie pipeline adds 10 Tcf to Canada s proven reserves (64 Tcf ultimate) Coal Reserves - Alberta (60%), BC (25%), Saskatchewan (10%), Northern Canada (4%), Nova Scotia (2%) Hydropower Installed Capacity - Québec (54%), BC (16%), Newfoundland (11%), Ontario (10%), Manitoba (7%)

2 Distribution of Resources in Canada 34,000 12,000 6700 900 8,000 900 5000 900 400 Canada s Installed Capacity - Hydro & Total Hydro = 69,000 MW Total = 115,000 MW Source : CHA

2 Distribution of Resources in Canada 44,000 33,000 18,000 12,000 4000 9000 12,000 4000 9000 10,000 9000 Canada s Remaining Technical Hydro Potential (MW) Total = 163,000 MW Source : CHA

2 Distribution of Resources in Canada 25,000 12,000 4000 5000 3000 2000 4000 4000 Canada s Remaining Economic/Environmental Hydro Potential (MW) Total = 55,000 MW (south) Possible 4000 12,000 MW (north) Approximate Estimates

JCWR1 3 Overview of Committed and Near-Term Projects Oil Production Projects Dominant Project Category Over C$ 15 Billion of projects under construction C$ 40 to C$ 50 Billion planned to 2015 Major expansion of oil production capacity from present 2.5 million b/d to 4.6 million b/d by 2015 Major Project Categories Oilsands - Mining Oilsands In situ Extraction Upgraders

Diapositiva 9 JCWR1 John Ritchie, 29/05/2006

3 Overview of Committed and Near-Term Projects Oil Production Outlook Source: CAPP

3 Overview of Committed and Near-Term Projects Major Oil Production Projects Projected Expenditures C$ 40 - C$ 50 billion 2005-2015 Oilsands alone (identified projects) Under Construction - Alberta - over C$ 15 Billion CNRL - Horizon (mining) Ph 1 110,000 b/d C$ 6.8 Billion by 2008 OPTI/Nexen - Long Lake (in situ) Ph 1 70,000 b/d C$ 3.8 Billion by 2007 ConocoPhillips - Surmont (in situ) - 50,000 b/d - C$ 1.4 Billion by 2006 Near Term Projects - Alberta - over C$ 13 Billion CNRL - Horizon (mining) Ph 2, 3 135,000 b/d C$ 3.1 Billion, 2006-2009 Imperial Oil - Kearl Lake (mining) Ph 1 100,000 b/d C$ 2.3 Billion, 2007-2010 Petro-Can et al - Fort Hills OS (mining) 100,000 b/d C$ 2.0 Billion, 2006-2010 Shell - Scotford Upgrader Exp. 90,000 b/d C$ 2.7 Billion, 2006-1010

3 Overview of Committed and Near-Term Projects Major Oil & Gas Transportation Projects Projected Expenditures C$ 17 billion 2006-2025 Under Construction - Smaller Projects Near Term Pipeline Projects - Alberta & U.S. - over C$ 5 Billion Enbridge Waupisoo 350,000 b/d C$ 0.5 Billion - 2008 Kinder Morgan Corridor 240,000 b/d C$ 1.5 Billion - 2008 Trans Canada Keystone 435,000 b/d C$ 2.6 Billion - 2009 Near Term LNG Import Projects Eastern Canada C$ 1.5 Billion Irving Oil / Repsol - Canaport LNG - 1 bcf/d C$ 0.8 Billion - 2008 Petro-Can/Trans Canada Gros Cacouna 0.5 bcf/d C$ 0.7 Billion - 2009 Longer Term Pipeline Projects includes major new gas pipelines Mackenzie Pipeline - 1.2 bcf/d C$ 7 Billion Alaska Pipeline 4.0 bcf/d C$ 23 Billion

3 Overview of Committed and Near-Term Projects Major Thermal Power Projects Under Construction - Ontario - C$ 1.4 Billion Portlands CCGT - C$ 0.6 Billion - 550 MW Sithe Goreway CCGT - C$ 0.8 Billion - 900 MW Near Term Projects - Alberta - C$ 1.9 Billion Keephills Unit 3 - Coal - C$ 0.9 Billion - 450 MW Bow City - Coal - C$ 2.4 Billion - 1000 MW ; cost includes Coal Mine development

3 Overview of Committed and Near-Term Projects Major Nuclear Power Projects New Emphasis on Nuclear Power likely in Canada Under Construction - Ontario & New Brunswick - C$ 5.6 Billion Bruce A Units 1&2 Re-Start - C$ 4.2 Billion 2 @ 800 MW Point Lepreau Refurbishment C$ 1.4 Billion - 680 MW Planned Projects- Ontario Before 2020 Refurbish over 10,000 MW of existing nuclear 14 units @ C$ 1 to C$ 1.5 Billion After 2015 4000 MW of new nuclear C$ 6 Billion

3 Overview of Committed and Near-Term Projects Major Hydropower Projects Continued construction in Québec, new projects in Manitoba, Newfoundland & Labrador Under Construction - Québec & Ontario - $ 5.0 Billion Québec Eastmain 1 - C$ 2.2 Billion - 480 MW Chûte-Allard/RDC - C$ 0.7 Billion - 138 MW Péribonka - C$ 1.5 Billion - 385 MW Ontario Niagara Tunnel - C$ 0.6 Billion Near Term Projects - Québec & Manitoba - C$ 5.7 Billion Québec Eastmain 1A - C$ 4.6 Billion - 888 MW Manitoba Wuskwatim - C$ 1.1 Billion - 200 MW

3 Overview of Committed and Near-Term Projects Major Hydropower Projects Planned Projects - C$ 21.6 Billion Québec La Romaine - C$ 7.0 Billion - 1550 MW Manitoba Keeyask C$ 3.0 Billion 620 MW Conawapa C$ 5.0 Billion 1250 MW Newfoundland & Labrador Lower Churchill (Gull Island) - C$ 4.5 Billion - 2000 MW Lower Churchill (Muskrat Falls) C$ 2.1 Billion 824 MW

3 Overview of Committed and Near-Term Projects Major HV Power Transmission Projects Most Projects Under C$ 0.5 Billion Grid Reinforcement Near Term Project - C$ 0.6 Billion Alberta Edmonton Calgary Reinforcement - C$ 0.6 Billion 500kV Planned Projects - C$ 7 Billion Manitoba Bipole 3 C$ 1.2 Billion 500 kv DC Manitoba Ontario Interconnector C$ 2 Billion 500 kv DC Newfoundland & Labrador Labrador Newfoundland DC Line C$ 2 Billion 400 kv DC Québec Transmission for La Romaine project - C$ 1.5 Billion

4 Major Projects Oil Production Typical Oilsands Mining Project Deposits to 80m depth Strip Overburden, mine materials, truck and shovel methods (large equipment) Separation uses warm water, agitation Typical breakeven cost US$ 25-30 per barrel

4 Major Projects Oil Production Typical In Situ Oilsands Mining Project Deposits over 80m depth Add heat to reduce viscosity, pump to surface Cyclic Steam Stimulation (CSS) - steam injected via vertical wells Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD) - horizontal wells Other approaches under development, including N-Solv (Less energy required) Typical breakeven cost higher than mining projects

4 Major Projects Oil & Gas Pipelines Keystone Pipeline Project Owner TransCanada Corp. Capacity 435,000 b/d - 3000 km, 30 ø Capital Cost C$ 2.6 Billion Construction Schedule 2008 2009 Regulatory and consultation process under way in Canada & U.S. Over 50% of pipeline length in U.S.

4 Major Projects Oil & Gas Pipelines

4 Major Projects Thermal & Nuclear Power Bruce A Units 1 & 2 Restart Owner Bruce Power Capacity 2 units @800 MW (Total on site 4700 to 6200 MW) Capital Cost C$ 4.5 Billion Construction Schedule 2006 2010 Scope Includes: Tube replacement in reactors Steam generator replacement Electrical & Auxiliary system refurbishment/upgrades

4 Major Projects Thermal & Nuclear Power Bow City Power Project Owner Luscar Ltd. Capacity 500 MW (ultimate 1000 MW) Capital Cost C$ 2.4 Billion, including coal mine development Construction Schedule 2007 2010/2014 Scope Includes: Two 500 MW supercritical coal-fired units Surface coal mine Coal production plant Model of Turbine Hall

4 Major Projects Hydropower Eastmain 1 Hydroelectric Project Owner Hydro-Québec Capacity 480 MW Dam Height 70 m. Capital Cost C$ 2.3 Billion Construction 2002 2006 Unique partnership with Cree communities

4 Major Projects Hydropower Wuskwatim Hydroelectric Project Owners Manitoba Hydro Nisichawayasihk Cree Nation Capacity 200 MW Dam Height 14 m. Capital Cost C$ 1.1 Billion Construction Schedule 2007 2012 Project designed to minimize flooding and impacts Unique partnership with aboriginal community

4 Major Projects Hydropower Lower Churchill Gull Island Owner Newfoundland & Labrador Hydro Capacity 2000 MW; 12TW-h/yr Dam 100 m high, 1300 m long Capital Cost C$ 4.5 Billion; includes AC transmission in Labrador Construction Schedule 2009 2015

5 Summary Under Construction - C$ 27 Billion Oilsands - C$ 15 Billion Nuclear Power - C$ 6 Billion Hydropower - C$ 5 Billion Thermal Power - C$ 1 Billion Near Term Projects - C$ 26 Billion Oilsands - C$ 13 Billion Hydropower - C$ 6 Billion Pipelines & LNG - C$ 5 Billion Thermal Power - C$ 2 Billion

5 Summary Investment requirements Oilsands - accelerate production capacity Oil & Gas Transportation - accommodate demand, production increase Thermal Power meet load growth in Alberta, Ontario Nuclear Power - major investments in Ontario Hydropower - continued major investments in Quebec, new investments in Manitoba, Newfoundland & Labrador HV Transmission - many areas need investment Implementation Constraints Finance and Project Economics Specialized Labour Regulatory - especially nuclear, hydro, HV transmission