Understanding Drought: A Case Study of India SVRK Prabhakar Climate Policy Researcher, Climate Policy Project Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, Hayama, Japan prabhakar@iges.or.jp, sivapuram.prabhakar@gmail.com Presented at: API Course, UNU, Tokyo. 3 rd November 2009. Presented via video conference from IGES, Hayama, Japan Note: Draft presentation subject to final modifications Organization of This Talk What is drought in India? How vulnerable is India to drought The past & Present Drought management in India Major issues in existing drought risk mitigation in India Climate Change Scenario What needs to be done? 20 min Q&A 8 min Q&A 1
Drought Classification by IMD Aridity Index: PE AE 100 PE = WaterDeficitit WaterNeed The departure of Aridity Index from the normal value is expressed in % and accordingly drought in a Meteorological Sub Division is categorized as Severe (more than 51%) Moderate (26-50%) Mild (up to 25%). Meteorological Divisions in India India is divided into 36 Met Sub Divisions based on the homogeneity of climate 2
All India Drought If area affected by one of the above two criteria for drought either individually or collectively is more than 20% of the total area of the country. What are Drought Prone Areas? Central Water Commission, Ministry of Water Resources: An area is drought affected when the annual rainfall is less than 75% of the normal in 20% of the years examined and have less than 30% of the cultivated area under Map showing drought prone irrigation states in India 16% of India s total area is drought prone On an average 191 of 543 districts are affected by drought More than 68% of the Land is vulnerable to drought 50 million people are annually affected by drought 3
India s Drought Vulnerability Spatial Distribution of Rainfall Medium rainfall zone (750 mm - 1125 mm) 35% High rainfall zone (1125 mm - 2000 mm) 24% Low rainfall zone (Area with <750 mm) 33% Very high rainfall zone (>2000 mm) 8% 4
The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and then open the file again. If the red x 70 19.3 10.7 Area of the Country Affected by Moderate and Severe Drought 40.5 30.6 1877 22.4 31.6 0.3 1899 44.1 17.5 25.2 27.9 16.9 28.9 77.3 24.3 62.8 12 65.6 70.9 1.2 1877 1891 1899 1901 1905 1904 1907 13 15.4 24.5 18.8 3.4 30.27 1918 44.03 35.7 21.1 17.8 10.7 62 71.6 75.5 77.8 25.7 2.3 78.9 71.5 1911 1913 1915 1918 1920 1925 1939 21.9 27.1 35.5 35.1 38.3 35.4 36.6 64.5 64.9 61.7 64.6 59.6 66 6.9 78.1 3.8 1941 1951 1965 1966 1968 1972 1974 16.7 29.1 23.6 6.7 3 52.3 29.8 1987 2002 2004 70.9 69.7 80.3 17.9 1982 1986 1985 1987 2002 Severe Drought Rainfall Deficiency Exceeding 50% of the Normal Moderate Drought Rainfall Deficiency 26% to 50% of the Normal 2002 Rainfall Normal Drought Frequency Meteorological Sub- Division Assam & NE Region WB, West MP, Konkan, Madhya MAH, Kerala, Bihar & Orissa SIK, East Rajasthan, Vidarbha, Gujarat, East & west UP Tamilnadu, J&K Rayalaseema, Telangana & West Rajasthan Frequency of Deficient Rainfall (75% of normal or less) Rare, once in 15 years Once in 5 years Once in 4 years Once in 3 years Once in 2.5 years 5
Reasons India s Rainfall Distribution India receives its annual rainfall in four spells: Pre-Monsoon(March-May) May) --10 10.4 % SouthWest Monsoon (Jun-Sept) Sept)--73.3% NorthEast Monsoon(Oct-Dec) -- 13.3% Winter Rains (January-Feb.) -- 3.0 % Reasons Monsoon - Inter-seasonal Variability 6
Drought Management in India Center and State Drought management is a state subject. The role of Central Government is limited to responding to the request of the state governments However, state governments often depend on the central government for assistance 7
Drought Response! District Collectors assess & report situation to Relief Dept State Level (E.G. Rajasthan) Declaration of drought affected districts Constitute: CM s Committee for relief Wk 1-4 2 nd Week of July 02 Wk 4 Reactivate district & block level relief committees Central team assess damage Wk 9 Wk 7 Wk 6 Wk 4 Wk 5 Request Central Govt for help Starts relief work by employment, food & fodder etc Submit relief memo to Central Govt State level action plan prepared by relief dept Central Relief Commissioner IMD Eco & Stat Advisor Central Water Commission Crop Specialists Agrl Input Supply Divisions Agrl Extension Specialists Min of Power Min of Petroleum ICAR CWWG Chairman Monsoon forecast Market indicators Water in reservoirs Crop cond. & prospects Supply & demand Field level farm operations Electricity for pumping GW Diesel for pumping GW Technology transfer Identifies drought Remedy advocacy National Emergency Action Plan Drought Monitoring & response System Rep to Central Govt Ministries, Depts, & States Secretary (DAC, MoA) Minister of Agriculture Drought Prime Minister Secretary to PM Cabinet Secretary 8
Drought Response! National Level Agrl Minister & officials reviews situation Wk 1 (July 2nd Week 02) High level Com considers & release relief Wk 10 Assessment Report Conference of Ag & relief ministers Wk 9 Wk 3 Wk 3 Wk 5 Central teams for assessment Constitute: National taskforce on drought Chair: Deputy PM Members: Min of Fin., Agrl, Rural Dev., Food consumer affairs & public Dep Chair (Planning Commission) Relief Framework Money, food supply, technology identification, transporting fodder, fodder mini kits, conserve water in reservoirs etc Drought Risk Mitigation Drought Prone Areas Programme (DPAP)- 180 districts of 16 States (Rs. 19.0 billion) Desert Development Programme (DDP) -40 districts of 7 States (Rs. 8.5 billion) Community development programmes: Food for work Programme Employment Assurance Scheme (EAS) (Rs. 16.0 billion) Jawahar Gram Samridhi Yojana (JGSY) (Rs. 16.5 billion) Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana (PMGSY) (Rs. 25.0 billion) Swaranjayanti Gram Swarozgar Yojana (SGSY) (Rs. 5.0 billion) Antyodaya Anna Yojana (AAY) National Old Age Programme (NOAP) Annapurna Scheme (Rs. 3.0 billion) Integrated Child Development Scheme (ICDS) Mid Day Meal for School children 9
Monitoring & Assessment India is yet to develop such a monitor USDA Drought Monitor Weather Bulletins Daily weather bulletins: once in every evening and twice during monsoon season Agrometeorological advisory services: s: twice a week for farmers to take up agricultural operations 10
External Assistance Policy No formal appeal is issued on behalf of the Government, directly or through any other agency, for assistance Relief offered on voluntary basis accepted and acknowledged as a sign of international solidarity Areas of assistance are Nutrition, Health, Community capacity, Water harvesting etc. Major Deficiencies Largely response based systems Mitigation programs Top-down approach Limited peoples participation Sustainability of project outputs is a problem National policy No clear national policy on drought mitigation Ad-hoc response mastered over time Poor early warning mechanisms Delayed response (9 weeks) 11
Drought Early Warning - Problems Poor long range and medium range weather forecasting precision No end-to-end linkage in weather information dissemination and use (sectoral utility information) Outdated numerical weather forecasting systems Relief Financing Calamity Relief Fund (CRF) For immediate relief and rehabilitation of natural calamity victims 75% Central contribution and 25% state contribution and administered as grant-in-aid A high level committee will decide on the amount to be given to each state for a specific calamity The fund is often not sufficient Decisions are highly politically influenced 12
'National Calamity (NCCF) Scheme'. Relief Financing A corpus of Rs 5000 million To be given reconstruction to Contingency states for To be recovered by levy of surcharges relief A high-level committee recommends amount to be given to the states Fund and the Climate Change and India s Drought Vulnerability 13
India s Climate Change Scenario Historic Analysis (a) summer monsoon rainfall (% of mean/100 years) (b) annual mean surface temperature during 1871-1990. Observed Extremes: Cyclone Storms Numb ber of storms per year Year 14
Future Projections Had RM2 model projections for rainfall for the period 2041-2060 General increase in warming with generally more warming in Northern States of India (2-5 O C till the end of 21 st Century) No consistent results in rainfall projections with some models showing increase while the other models a reduction in rainfall. Rainfall Intensity and Duration Number of rainy days for duration for the period 2041-2060 Rainfall intensity (mm/day) during the period 2041-2060 15
Surface Water Sources Projected Drought Conditions There is a general increase in drought conditions in the western India Less number of consecutive drought years More drought weeks in western India 16
What Needs to Be Done? Community adaptation to climate change Number of studies in India on vulnerability and coping mechanisms Less number of studies linking climate change and drought risk mitigation measures It is important to understand how the past vulnerabilities leads to future vulnerabilities and how the gap can be bridged What Needs to Be Done? Policies at various levels A comprehensive drought risk mitigation policy for the country considering future climate variability General awareness among communities on the future scenarios and developing a sense of responsibility towards natural resource management Proper dissemination of climate information to communities with what it means to them Planned adaptation to reduce the impacts Proper land-use planning Water pricing 17