www.gladstein.org Using Natural Gas to Cut Pollution, Reduce our Addiction to Oil, and Save Money in the Long Run Rich Kassel Pace Energy and Climate Center Workshop September 25, 2012
Introducing GNA Building an Environmentally and Socially Responsible Future Full-service environmental consulting firm Clients in business, government, non-profit sectors Based in Santa Monica recently opened NYC office Project development and management, including alternative fuel, advanced vehicle technology, and other transportation projects Policy guidance at city, state, federal, international levels Both sides of the grants process
Soup-to-Nuts Consulting on NGVs and Alternative Fuels Strategic policy analysis, planning & implementation Technical expertise and project management: Vehicle and Engine Selection & Specs Fuel Station Development & Permitting Maintenance Shop Modifications Fuel Supply & Contracting Personnel Training (Fleet & Emergency Responders) Grant Writing & Resource Procurement (>92% success rate) Funding Program Development & Implementation Marketing and public relations
Back in the 1990s, there was no such thing as a clean diesel
Today, all new heavy-duty engines are clean 5.0 1994 500 PPM (6/93) 4.0 1998 NOx [g/hp-hr] 2.5 1.2 2007 2002 SULFUR ULSD 15 PPM (7/06) 0.2 2010010 0.01 0.10 PM [g/hp-hr]
So Why Consider Natural Gas for Heavy- Duty Trucking and Beyond www.gladstein.org
U.S. Oil Transportation Fuel Portfolio Gasoline 140.6 Billion GGE Diesel 44.5 Billion GGE Alt. Fuels.4 Billion GGE Equivalent to 21.5 Tcf or 58.9 Bcfd Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA), 2008, Excludes Oxygenates
Our Addiction to Oil has a cost Environmental Air, water, GHG, and other pollution from drilling, production, transporting, and refining Tanker and offshore drilling spills, pipeline releases, refinery discharges, leaking underground storage tanks Economic In 2009, energy imports were nearly 60% of our trade deficit 10 of 11 post-wwii recessions followed oil price spikes Political Most petroleum imported from countries with unstable, undemocratic and/or unfriendly governments Periodic supply disruptions overseas lead to economic losses, military actions, etc.
Why switch to natural gas? Environmental All new engines are low PM, but only diesel PM causes cancer (WHO IARC, 2012) 20-30% lower NOx emissions than average new diesel Economic/Operational At low natural gas prices, fleets are paying back their incremental costs in <3 years Political 95% of NG comes from US or Canada Opportunity to help fix trade deficit
All new engines are low PM, but only diesel exhaust can cause cancer World s leading cancer research agency finds link between diesel exhaust and lung cancer Research based on dirty diesel without PM filters No data to suggest that PM from new diesel engines isn t carcinogenic, there is just less of it
Natural gas engines can help states meet ozone NAAQS Average Certification Average Not-to-Exceed Diesel 0.205 0.43 Natural Gas 0.164 0.30 Reduction 20% 31% Certification data based on CARB Executive Orders for Model Year 2010 diesel and natural gas powered engines http://www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/onroad/cert/mdehdehdv/2010/2010.php
Either LNG or CNG can meet operational or range requirements of most fleets LNG: 60 DGE (120 DGE if 2 tanks) LNG: 80 DGE 60 DGE 250 300 miles CNG: 82 DGE (dual 41 DGE tanks) 80 DGE 350 400 miles CNG: 80 DGE 120 DGE 500 600 miles
Choosing LNG or CNG depends on the application PRO: lower weight, greater range, lower tank costs, less truck real estate, lower fuel station costs (CAPEX & OPEX), can make LCNG from LNG CON: higher tank maintenance, higher fuel cost than CNG, limited fuel supply PRO: less tank maintenance, lower fuel cost than LNG, national fuel supply CON: higher weight and tank costs, more truck real estate, higher fuel station costs (esp. CAPEX), requires access to a pipeline, cannot make LNG from CNG Choosing LNG or CNG depends on the application LNG more likely for long-haul trucks and in dual-fuel configurations with diesel CNG more likely for intercity or regional hauling
Favorable economics of natural gas
Economics forecast to remain positive for years to come $4.00 Nat Gas / Diesel Fuel Price Differential $3.50 $3.00 $ per DGE $2.50 $2.00 $1.50 $1.00 $0.50 $0.00 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Diesel Nat Gas Differential Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration - Annual Energy Outlook 2010
Plentiful domestic natural gas for years to come Source: Encana Natural Gas 98% Supply is from North America >85% Supply is from the U.S.A.
Case Study 1: Paper Transport saves $50K/truck per year 400 mile roundtrip 2 trips/day 5 days/week 180,000 miles/year Savings: $2.00/DGE Freightliner M2 with Cummins Westport ISL G CNG fuel system: 75 DGE tank package CNG refueling stations at both ends
Case Study 2: Border Valley Trading Saves $44k/month
Case Study 3: Marine LNG can help ships comply with ECA and states meet NAAQS North American Emission Control Area will require switch from residual fuel to distillate in 2015 + emission controls in 2016 Sulfur levels to drop from 26,000 ppm to 1,000 ppm Environmental and health benefits include >80% emission reductions and up to 31,000 premature deaths eliminated by 2030 High incremental fuel cost concerns are creating opposition from cruise industry and others LNG can provide lower-cost method of compliance
Higher oil prices makes LNG attractive for locomotives, construction, and other high horsepower uses also
Thank You! Rich Kassel, Senior Vice President Gladstein, Neandross & Associates (646) 783-4090 rich.kassel@gladstein.org www.gladstein.org