TRB Webinar: U.S. Transportation System Scenarios to 2050 in a World Addressing Climate Change September 10, 2009, 2:30 PM EDT
Today s Presenters and Moderator George Schoener,1-95 Corridor Coalition Dan Sperling, Institute of Transportation Studies at University of California, Davis Gail Achterman, Oregon Transportation Commission / Oregon State University Diana Bauer, Environmental Protection Agency
Upcoming TRB Webinars: Find them at http://www.trb.org/electronicsessions/public/webinars1.aspx Thursday, September 17, 2:00 to 3:30 PM EDT Slope Maintenance and Slide Restoration Thursday, October 1, 2:00 to 3:30 PM EDT Creating an Innovative Workforce: Augmenting Words, Equations, and Data with Visualization Tuesday October 6, 2:00 to 3:30 PM EDT State and Local Government Responses to Climate Change
George Schoener, Executive Director Transportation System Scenarios Addressing Climate Change September 10, 2009 A 2040 Vision for the I-95 Corridor: Supporting Economic Growth in a Carbon-Constrained Environment
outline Transportation Vision 2040 The Region Consequences of Business as Usual 2040 Vision Principles What Will It Take to Achieve the Vision? What Will It Cost?
the region The I-95 Corridor Coalition Population: 42 of the nation s 100 largest metropolitan areas 110 million residents (37% of the nation s population, on 10% of its land) 272 people per square mile (3+ times more densely populated than the U.S. as a whole, and more densely populated than many Western European countries) Economy: $4.7 trillion economy (37% of US GDP) 3rd largest economy in the world
Travel Among and within its 3 Mega Regions Supports the Region s Economic Vitality the region
The I-95 Mega-regions Compete with 40 Mega-regions Around the World the region
Continuing a Business as Usual Approach to Transportation Will Lead to Dire Consequences business as usual
business as usual Many Major Highways Along the East Coast will be Completely Clogged in Peak Periods 70% increase in VMT Dramatic increases in congestion levels 84% delay increase on urban Interstate 49% all systems
business as usual Cost of Goods will Increase with the Doubling of Truck Freight Movement along Congested Highways Loss of mode share by freight rail and marine shipping Doubling of freight carried on trucks
business as usual Large Growth in Travel will Lead to Increased Greenhouse Gas Emissions 34% increase in fuel consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (in spite of more stringent fuel efficiency standards) 200% 150% 2007 EISA Café Improvements 100% 50% 0 2005 GHG 2040 GHG Current Trend
2040 Vision A Better Way: A Strategic Vision for Transportation in the Region in 2040 Significant change is needed to support continuing economic growth in a Carbon Constrained Environment
2040 Vision Coalition s Strategic Vision Builds on Results from Nationally- Prominent and State/Regional Visioning Efforts National Surface Transportation Policy and Revenue Commission Other Literature MPO Intake Session AASHTO-Led Vision for 21st Century State/Local Vision Efforts
2040 vision A Set of Consensus Policy Principles Guided Development of the Vision Support continuing economic growth Support sustainable environmental and energy policies Support sustainable land use practices Provide a balanced multimodal transportation system
2040 vision Support Continuing Economic Growth Sustain and enhance regional economic vitality Support mega-region global competitiveness
2040 vision Support Sustainable Land Use Practices Support transit oriented development Support efficient distribution of goods Discourage unplanned sprawl Support travel alternatives (e.g., telecommuting and video conferencing)
2040 vision Provide a Balanced Multimodal Transportation System Provide travel options with a multi-modal system Achieve seamless intermodal connectivity Improve transportation system performance Provide safe and secure travel
achieving the vision What will it take to Achieve the Vision? Increased vehicle fuel efficiency Increased use of alternative fuels Reduced rate of VMT growth Greater use of alternative modes Aggressive transportation system management Including pricing and IntelliDrive SM /Vehicle Infrastructure Integration (VII) Additional highway capacity Especially managed lanes
achieving the vision Vehicle Fuel Efficiency must be Doubled: Thereby achieving the current efficiencies of global competitors U.S. Year 2005: 25 MPG Year 2040: 50 MPG
achieving the vision 35% Reduction in GHG Emissions Achieved through Use of Alternative Fuels Bio-Diesel Electricity Ethanol Cellulosic biomass as source Compressed and Liquid Natural Gas Hydrogen
achieving the vision VMT Growth Rate is Reduced from a Projected 1.7% to 1.0% Annually VMT in Trillions
achieving the vision A Multimodal Transportation System Enables Greater Use of Non-Highway Modes Transit ridership is tripled in concert with transit oriented development Passenger rail ridership increases 8-fold Reduces aviation and highway congestion Freight rail ton miles increase 20% over trend projection A marine highway network reduces the number of trucks on the region s highways Improved port access enhances intermodal connectivity
achieving the vision System Capacity will be Fully Used through Aggressive Transportation Management Major unexpected delays will be reduced through aggressive incident management All major highways will be instrumented and managed Travelers will be wellinformed about current conditions along with route and modal choices Pricing strategies will be implemented to better manage congestion and improve performance Dramatic improvements in safety and efficiency will result from IntelliDrive SM /VII deployment
achieving the vision Additional Highway Capacity is Needed to Improved System Performance 15,000 additional interstate lane miles will be required throughout the region Much of which will be managed lanes, including truck lanes An array of highway system improvements will complement the additional capacity: Major reconstruction of aging infrastructure Bottleneck elimination
achieving the vision A 60-80% Reduction in 2005 Greenhouse Gas Emission Levels will be Achieved 175% 150% 125% 100% 75% 2007 EISA Café Improvements 2020-2040 Fuel Efficiency Gains Alternative Fuels Double Fuel Efficiency of Fleet Reduction Strategies 50% 25% VMT Reduction* Aggressive Operations 0% 2005 GHG 2040 GHG w/trend 2040 GHG w/reduction Strategies * Modal Shift, Demand Reduction, HOV, Land Use, etc.
achieving the vision Economic Growth is Supported by Improved System Performance Removal of major freight highway and rail bottlenecks 46% reduction in delay on urban interstates Substantial operational and safety improvements from: Reduced VMT growth Diversions to non-highway modes Aggressive management, including IntelliDrive SM /VII deployment
the cost More than Doubling of Investment in all Modes is Needed Mode Annual Capital Investment: I-95 Region (2005 constant $ billions) Current Trend Vision $8 $15 - $19 ~$0.8 ~$4 - $5 ~$1 ~$2 $22 $47 $32 $71 *includes intermodal connections to ports, airports, rail terminals
the cost We will Transition to a New Financing Model Other State/Local/ Private Options Environmental Fee (Carbon Pricing) Congestion Fee Base VMT Fee (to Replace Gas Tax)
in closing Transportation Vision 2040 Supporting Economic Growth in a Carbon-Constrained Environment Continuing Economic Growth Sustainable Environmental and Energy Policies Sustainable Land Use Practices Balanced Multimodal Transportation Systems
Supporting Economic Growth in a Carbon-Constrained Environment
How to Achieve 80% Reduction in Transportation GHG Emissions by 2050: A Case Study of California Daniel Sperling On behalf of Christopher Yang David McCollum, Ryan McCarthy, Wayne Leighty Institute of Transportation Studies University of California, Davis TRB Webinar September 10, 2009
Humans Need to Dramatically Reduce CO 2 Emissions to Stabilize the Climate Billion tons of CO 2 (global) 450 550 750 ppm 350 ppm Need 50-80% reduction in GHGs from business as usual by 2050 to stabilize the climate and avoid catastrophic climate change. To stabilize atmospheric CO 2 concentration, need to decarbonize the energy system at several times the historical rate of 0.3%/y. Even Source: if IPCC electric sector is completely decarbonized by 2100, stabilization at 550 (450) ppm => 3 (5) fold reduction in carbon emissions from direct fuel use vs. IS92a.
80in50 Project Goals Provide snapshots of what 80% reduction in transport could look like Provide a simple tool (emissions calculator) that helps explore Most important areas to target Results and tradeoffs from different assumptions Role of different strategies and policies in reducing GHG emissions from transport sector
All Transport Activities, California (1990) In-State Emissions Overall Emissions (in-state plus ½ out-of-state transport)
Kaya decomposition analysis Analytical Framework CO 2 emissions = P T E C Population California pop. Transport intensity (e.g., VMT/capita) Energy Intensity (e.g., MJ/mile) Carbon Intensity (e.g. gco 2 -eq/mj) Each transport sector (e.g. heavy duty), sub-sector (e.g. buses) and individual technology options (e.g. fuel cell hybrid buses) are characterized in terms of these Kaya components
GHG Intensity (g CO 2 -eq/mj) Key Fuel Assumptions Gasoline 95g/MJ Biofuels waste (crop/forest residues, MSW): 10g/MJ Other biofuels (cellulose and algae): 25g/MJ Hydrogen from coal w/ccs 25g/MJ (reduced w/fc) Hydrogen from renewables 5g/MJ (reduced w/fc) Electricity is 90% decarbonized relative to 1990 (made from mix of renewables, natural gas, coal w/ccs, nuclear)
Key Vehicle Assumptions HD trucks are mix of hybrids using mostly biofuels and fuel cells using hydrogen Most LD vehicles operate on either electricity or hydrogen Battery EVs dominate in smaller vehicles PHEVs sales greatly expand after 2015 but fade after 2035 (as batteries improve and GHG targets get stronger) On-road fuel economy of vehicles in MPG (gasolineequivalent) in 2050: Gasoline PHEV: 75 mpg-ge H2 FCV: Battery EV: 82 mpg-ge 117 mpg-ge
Key Travel Activity Assumptions Population increases 35% (85% from 1990) VMT/capita decreases 20% 1/4 of reduction is from mode switching and rest from reduced vehicle use Large per-capita increase in intercity rail (including high speed) In-state air travel decreases (per capita) HD truck miles increase (per capita)
Efficient Biofuels 80in50 (reductions from business-as-usual forecast)
Electric-drive 80in50 (reductions from business-as-usual forecast)
Portfolio 80in50 Scenario (reductions from business-as-usual forecast)
Virtually All Vehicles in 2050 Will Have Electric Drive Propulsion (BEVs, PHEVs, FCVs)
Policy Mechanisms
Conclusions Meeting 80% reduction goal will be major challenge Need transformation of vehicles, fuels, and transportation systems Not all sectors and subsectors should be reduced equally Light-duty vehicles tend to be more amenable to large GHG reductions than other vehicles and subsectors Many uncertainties affect findings, including quantity of waste biomass available for energy use, costs of future batteries and renewable hydrogen, effectiveness and cost of carbon sequestration, use of hydrogen and electricity in trucks, marine, ag/offroad, and aviation. Biofuels are most applicable across all transport subsectors, but are limited by resource availability and often have relatively high GHG emissions (unless made from waste materials). Hydrogen and electricity can be made from a wide range of resources, but limited by applicability to some transport subsectors (especially aviation, marine and off-road) and uncertain costs. Slowing growth in travel demand is most challenging but has large cobenefits.
For More Detail Christopher Yang, David McCollum, Ryan McCarthy, Wayne Leighty, Meeting an 80% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from transportation by 2050: A case study in California, Transportation Research D (2009). For background report see http://steps.ucdavis.edu/research/thread_6/80in50 David McCollum, Christopher Yang, Achieving deep reductions in US transport greenhouse gas emissions: scenario analysis and policy implications, Energy Policy (2010) Daniel Sperling and Deborah Gordon, Two Billion Cars: Driving Toward Sustainability, Oxford University Press (2009) THANKS
Gail Achterman Chair of the Oregon Transportation Commission Director of the Institute for Natural Resources at Oregon State University Gail.Achterman@oregonstate.edu