International Ag issues Trends in the Local Food Market Presentation For The NSAC Far West Chapter Annual Meeting May 23, 2013 William Matthews University of California Agricultural Issues Center
UC Agricultural Issues Center AIC Mission: provide broadly-based and objective information on agricultural issues and their significance for California s ag economy Priorities: International trade, globalization, ag policy, ag. productivity and technology, ag. labor, ag. land issues, commodity markets and agribusiness UC based center for 30 years http://aic.ucdavis.edu/
Today s Discussion Trends in the local food movement Role of California agriculture in global food supply
Number of Articles Number of Articles that Discuss Local Food Movement in Text, 2001-2012 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2001 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: NewsBank
900 Number of Farmers Markets Listed by State, 2012 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 California New York Massachusetts Michigan Wisconsin Illinois Ohio Pennsylvania Iowa Virginia North Carolina Florida Minnesota Colorado Oregon Texas Indiana Kentucky Missouri Connecticut Maryland Alabama Washington New Jersey South Carolina Georgia Kansas New Hampshire Vermont Tennessee Hawaii Maine Nebraska Arizona West Virginia Arkansas Mississippi Oklahoma New Mexico Idaho Montana North Dakota Louisiana Rhode Island Wyoming Nevada South Dakota Utah District of Delaware Alaska Source: USDA AMS
Number of Farmers Markets Listed by State for 2012 Number of Farmers Markets Arizona 82 California 827 Hawaii 88 Nevada 38 Utah 37 Total Member States 1,072 Total USA 7,860 Source: USDA AMS
Direct-to-Consumer Food Marketing* by Region,1997-2007 Source: USDA AMS * Direct marketing is defined as agricultural products sold directly to individuals for human consumption in the U.S. Census of Agriculture, 2007.
Top 10 States, Direct-to-Consumer Food Marketing as Share of Total Agricultural Sales, 2007 Source: USDA AMS
Agricultural Economy of Top 10 Direct-to- Consumer Marketing States, 2012 Total Cash Receipts = $9.79 billion Total US Cash Receipts = $390.8 billion Share of US Agriculture Production Value = 2.5%
Direct-to-Consumer Food Marketing Sales For 2007 Source: USDA AMS
Direct-to-Consumer Market Value as Share of California Agriculture 2007 Value of Direct-To- Consumer Sales in California 2007 Value of California Agriculture Cash Receipts $163 million $37 billion Share.004 2012 Value of Direct-To- Consumer Sales in California* $292 million 2012 Value of California Agriculture Cash Receipts $44 billion Share.006 * Assumes growth rate for direct-to-market sales is equal to growth rate in farmers markets in US.
California Agriculture In 2012 California Agriculture Production = $44.1 billion. California agriculture =11% of total US value in agriculture production. Next closest state is Iowa at about $32 billion or 8.2% of US Ag. production value. Source: USDA-Economic Research Service
Total Value in $billion $50 $45 $40 $35 $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 $0 Annual Value of California Agricultural Production 1960-2012 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011
Top Agricultural Producing States In U.S. 16% 2000-2011 Share of US total Ag Value 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 California Iowa Texas Nebraska Source: USDA-Economic Research Service
California s Agricultural Advantage Mild Climate Fertile Soils Adequate Precipitation (Rain/Snow) Source: State of California
Commodities Produced in California Source: California Department of Food and Agriculture
Crops for which California is the Sole Producer in the US Almonds Pistachios Walnuts Figs Kiwi Nectarines Olives Clingstone Peaches Plums Prunes Raisins Dates Artichokes Source: USDA-Economic Research Service
Other Crops for Which CA is a Major Producer (70-98%) Apricots Grapes Lemons Strawberries Cotton (Pima) Lettuce Proc. Tomatoes Spinach Garlic Celery Cauliflower Broccoli Avocadoes
Share of 2011 California Agricultural Value by Commodity Group Field Crops 17% Other Crops 2% Fruit and nuts 32% Greenhouse Nursery 8% Source: USDA-ERS Meat and Poultry 10% Dairy 16% Vegetable 15%
Top 5 Commodities by Value for 2011 Commodities 2011 Farm Value (in $billions) Dairy Products $7.6 Almonds $3.8 Grapes $3.8 Beef $2.5 Strawberries $1.9
Value of Production in $billion 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 1990 Annual Value of Top 5 Commodities 1992 Dairy Almonds Grapes Beef Strawberries 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Export Values in $billion $16 $14 $12 $10 $8 $6 $4 $2 $0 California Export Values, 1995-2011 Top-10 Commodities Principal Commodities All Agricultural Exports 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Top-5 California Exports, 2011 Rank Commodity ($mill) % Exported 1 Almonds 2,828 64 2 Dairy and products 1,420 24 3 Wine 1,226 29 1 4 Walnuts 1,060 63 5 Rice 877 52 Total Agriculture Exports 16,873 25.0 Source: Agricultural Issues Center
2011 California Exports by Category Wine 8% Flowers 1% Animal Products 12% Vegetables 7% Field Crops 17% Tree Nuts 32% Fruits 23%
Top Ten Export Destinations for 2011 California Exports Rest of World 32% Canada 18% Taiwan 2% Turkey 2% United Arab Emirates 2% South Korea 5% India 2% Mexico 5% Japan 8% European Union-27* 14% China / Hong Kong 10%
California Agriculture Exports to Asia/Pacific Region In 2011 California exports went to 39 different Asia/Pacific countries. Total value of exports to region in 2011 was $5.74 billion, or 34% of total exports.
Country Asia/Pacific Region Exports by Destination Country for 2011 2011 Value ($ million) Share of Total China/Hong Kong 1,722 30% Japan 1,415 25% Korea 781 14% India 360 6% Taiwan 249 4% Australia 248 4% Vietnam 197 3% Indonesia 153 3% Malaysia 148 3% Philippines 132 2% Rest of Region 340 6% Total for Region 5,746 100%
Commodity Asia/Pacific Region Exports by Commodity for 2011 2011 Value ($ million) Share of Total Almonds 1,067 19% Dairy 603 11% Oranges 482 8% Rice 473 8% Walnuts 400 7% Table Grapes 366 6% Wine 363 6% Beef 349 6% Pistachios 339 6% Cotton 305 5% Other Exports 1,000 17% Total Exports 5,746 100%
2011 California Exports to Asia/Pacific Region by Category Vegetables 3% Tree Nuts 31% Wine 6% Animal Products 17% Field Crops and Flowers 18% Fruits 25%
US-Asia/Pacific Free Trade Agreements US-Australia: Entered into force on January 1, 2005. U.S. goods exports were $18.9 billion in 2009, up 33 percent from 2004 (US Trade Representative). US-Korea: Entered into force on March 15, 2012. Trans Pacific Partnership
Australia as Export Destination for California Agriculture Australia is consistently a top-15 destination country for California agriculture products. In 2011 Australia purchased $248 million in agricultural exports from California.
Average Value of California Exports $200 to Australia Value in $millions $150 $100 $50 2001-2004 Avg 2005-2011 Avg $0 Tree Nuts Table Grapes Citrus Grand Total
Korea as Export Destination for California Agriculture Korea was the #6 destination country for California agriculture products in 2011. Korea purchased $751 million in agriculture products from California in 2011.
Base tariffs in Korea for selected products
Access improvement by general market access category
Comparison of US Exports to Korea of Commodities that went to 0% Tariff at Start of FTA Commodities 2011 2012 Percent Change 2011-2012 $1,000 Beef- Hides 286,933 312,621 9.00% Almonds 84,314 130,009 54.20% Cherries 1,842 76,382 4047.30% Tomatoes, Processed 12,761 16,215 27.10% Wine 10,511 15,550 47.90% Raisins 10,006 12,199 21.90% Total 406,367 562,976 38.54%
Trans Pacific Partnership Current Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPSEP) is a free trade agreement among Brunei, Chile, New Zealand, and Singapore (begun in 2005). Since 2010, negotiations to significantly expand the TPP to include Australia, Canada, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, the United States, Vietnam and Japan have taken place. Focus on Japan
Japan as Export Destination for California Agriculture Total California Ag Exports to Japan in 2011 Valued $1.45 billion. Japan was the third highest destination country for California agricultural exports in 2011.
2011 California Agricultural Exports to Japan Commodity 2011 Value ($ million) Share of Total Rice 292 21% Almonds 135 10% Beef 111 8% Hay 106 7% Wine 100 7% Oranges 93 7% Dairy 86 6% Walnuts 78 6% Raisins 49 3% Lemons 47 3% Other Exports 318 22% Total Exports 1,415 100%
Conclusions The eat local movement is a growing trend but remains a small part of overall agricultural production and value. California s strengths are producing and processing large numbers of different commodities efficiently and competing in the global market. This is will continue.
Thank You