Vehicles Transportation and GHG and Emissions Carbon Rubenstein School of the Environment and Natural Resources April 17, 2008 Richard Watts, Research Director, University Transportation Research Center 1
University of Vermont Transportation Research Center Founded in Fall 2006 (SAFETEA LU) One of 10 National Transportation Centers Theme: Sustainable Systems and Advanced Technologies for Northern Communities Multi-disciplinary Transportation research Picture Description / Source 2
Graduate Students Research Assistantships Transportation Scholars 3
Research Projects on Campus 25 Faculty, UTC and Graduate Student Projects Research Project Categories Carbon Reduction & Sustainable Systems Environmental Justice & Communications Travel Management & Travel Behavior Infrastructure & Transportation Financing May 12, Davis Center 4-5 Open House http://www.uvm.edu/~transctr/ 4
VERMONT CLEAN CITIES COALITION Strategies to reduce petroleum consumption 5
Outline Transportation Energy Use Carbon Footprint Public Policy Solutions Vermont Focus Questions and Comments 6
US Petroleum Supply Source: Greene, Leiby, Patterson, Plotkin and Singh, 2007 7
U.S. Oil Use By Sector Residential 7% Electricity 1% Industrial 23% Transportation 69% Source: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2005 Data are for 2005 8
Current and Potential Car Fleet in India and China China 13 640 Vehicle Fleet Size for Industrialized Vehicle Ownership Level Size of Vehicle Fleet (1999) India 8 513 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Millions 9
Two Trends to Watch 1) Tata Motors Ltd. of India will build a five-seat car that it will bring to market for around $2,200 (Autoblog.com, March 4, 2008). 2) Declining interest in car ownership among Japanese young (Wall Street Journal, Feb. 29, 2008). 10
Cost of Gasoline and Oil Today? $ $ 11
Vermont Gas Prices Rising Vermont Avg. Annual Gas & Diesel Prices $3.50 $3.00 Price Per Gallon $2.50 $2.00 $1.50 $1.00 Gas Diesel $0.50 $0.00 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Calendar Year 12
Vermont Gas Sales Flat Transportation Fuel Sales in Vermont 400 350 Millions of Gallons 300 250 200 150 100 50 Gas Diesel Biodiesel 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Calendar Year 13
Gas Sales Flat Costs Sharply Higher Total Annual Spending on Gas and Diesel $1,400 $1,200 Millions of Dollars Spent $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 Total Spent $0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Calendar Year 14
Cost of Vehicle Ownership 15
Transportation Funding Shortfall Table-10 Vermont s Transportation Revenue Shortfall Analysis 2006-2025 Years Needs Revenues Shortfall (Inflation) 2% 5% 2% 5% ($ Millions) 2006-2010 $2,670 $2,835 $2,101 $569 $734 2011-2015 $2,948 $3,618 $2,127 $821 $1,491 2016-2020 $3,254 $4,617 $2,371 $883 $2,246 2021-2025 $3,593 $5,893 $2,647 $946 $3,246 Total $12,465 $16,963 $9,246 $3,219 $7,717 Source: VTrans LRTBP Working Paper 16 3
Does Price Make A Difference? 17
Automobile Dominance in Vermont 2000 Journey to Work Mode Split - Vermont Walked 5.7% Other 0.4% Worked at home 5.7% Public Trans 0.7% Carpooled 12.0% Drove alone 75.5% 18
Vermonters Driving More Source: 2006 VLTP 19
Driving Alone Increases Source: 2006 VLTP 20
US GHG Emissions by Sector Figure credit: Davies, J. and C. Facanha. 21
Transportation GHG Emissions Increasing 22
GHG Emissions by Vehicle Type 23
Average Gasoline Consumption for New Vehicles, United States, 1972-2006 (miles per gallon) 35 30 25 20 15 Cars Light Trucks Average 10 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 Source: Light-Duty Automotive Technology and Fuel Economy Trends. http://www.epa.gov/otaq/fetrends.htm 24
GHG Emissions in Vermont Source: DPS Utility Facts, 2006, updated August 2007 25
Vermont Towns & Vehicle GHG Emissions Source: VPIRG from US Census 2000 Journey to Work Data 26
Vermont Is Aging Old Vermont 240 220 Over 65 200 180 160 140 120 Total Population 100 20-65 80 60 6 to 18 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 Source: Art Woolf, PPT Jan. 2007 Source: Art Woolf: Vermont aging slides PPT, Jan 2007 27
Obesity Epidemic and VMT 28
UVM Unlimited Access Bus Ridership 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 Jan. 06 Jan. 03 Feb. 03 Mar. 03 Apr. 03 May. 03 June. 03 July. 03 Aug. 03 Sep. 03 Oct. 03 Nov. 03 Dec. 03 Jan. 04 Feb. 04 Mar. 04 Apr. 04 May. 04 June. 04 July. 04 Aug. 04 Sep. 04 Oct. 04 Nov. 04 Dec. 04 Jan. 05 Feb. 05 Mar. 05 Apr. 05 May. 05 June. 05 July. 05 Aug. 05 Sep. 05 Oct. 05 Nov. 05 Dec. 05 Jan. 03 Aug. 04 Aug. 05 Sep. 05 Oct. 05 - Unlimited Access Agreement Begins -Information Packets Circulated on Campus and in Dorms -Letters Sent Home to First-Year Students -Information Advertised in Orientation Packets -Unlimited Access Advertisement in Campus Directory -Postcard with Info Sent to Faculty/ Staff Through CATMA 29
UVM Seniors Use Transit Less Percentage of Undergraduate Riders by Status (Fall 2005) Senior, 358, 12% Junior, 375, 13% Freshmen, 1459, 51% Sophomore, 681, 24% 30
A Public Policy Solution Framework Increase Vehicle Efficiency CAFE, Co2 regulations, Alt Fuels (PHEVs, AFVs etc.) Low Carbon Fuels California, Europe Reduce VMT (particularly SOV VMT) Public transit, TOD, TDM, 31
Driving Behavior Increases Efficiency 32
Can Consumer Awareness Influence Driving Behavior? 33
Electric Cars 34
Plug in Hybrid Electric Vehicles 35
36
walkscore.com 37
A Public Policy Solution Framework Increase Vehicle Efficiency CAFE, Co2 regulations, Alt Fuels (PHEVs, AFVs etc.) Low Carbon Fuels California, Europe Reduce VMT (particularly SOV VMT) Public transit, TOD, TDM, 38
Governor s Commission on Climate Change 39
Vermont Government Approach The miles traveled aren t the problem; the way we traverse them is. As gas prices climb, many are taking a second look at fuel efficient cars and trucks and alternatives to single occupancy trips. That s why I propose Go Vermont, a threepronged approach that provides cost-effective transportation alternatives, promotes the development and availability of cleaner burning biofuels and pushes for increased vehicle emissions standards. -- Gov. Douglas State of the State, Jan 10 2008 40
Vermont Transportation Strategies Policies to reduce emissions from transportation fall into three categories: 1. improving vehicle fuel efficiency, 2. reducing the carbon intensity of fuels, and 3. reducing activity rates, either absolutely or relative to the baseline. -- Vermont Climate Change Plan, Dec. 2007 41
Vermont Climate Action Plan Policies 42
Reduce CO2 Reduce CO2/VMT (A1) Reduce VMT (A2) Passenger Vehicles (A11) Freight (A12) Land Use (A21) Transportation Alternatives (A22) Fiscal Tools & Incentives (A23) Low GHG Tailpipe Standards (A111) Feebates (A112) Truck Stop Electrification (A121) Transit Oriented Development (A211) Transit Service Improvements (A221) Targeted Infrastructure Funding (A231) Tax Incentives for Efficient Vehicles (A113) Vessel Electrification (A122) Brownfield Development (A212) Light Rail Transit (A222) Road/Congestion Pricing (A232) Carbon Tax (A114) Procurement of Low GHG/ Alt Fuel Vehicles (A115) Biofuel Standards (A116) Vehicle Scrappage (A117) Driver Training (A118) Anti-Idling By-Laws (A119) Speed Reduction Programs (A1110) Traffic Signal Improvements/ ITS/Traffic flow (A1111) Retrofits and Clean Fuels for HD Trucks (A123) Transit Bus Retrofits (A124) Intermodal Freight Initiatives (A125) Locomotive Technologies (Hybrids, Fuel Cells) (A126) Locomotive Idle Reduction Technologies (A127) Pedestrian-Oriented Design (A213) Smart School Siting (A214) Permitting & Zoning Reform (A215) Smart Growth Programs (A216) Open Space Programs (A217) Bus Rapid Transit (A223) Bike Infrastructure Development (A224) Car Pooling Organizations (A225) Commuter Incentives (A233) Pay-As-You-Drive Insurance (A234) Green Mortgages (A235) Fuel Tax (A236) Cap & Trade for Automakers/Regions (A237) Renewable Portfolio Standard for Fuel Mixes (A238) Technology & Maintenance (A1112) Municipal Parking Programs (A239) Hybrid and Electric Vehicles (A1113) Hydrogen & Fuel Cell Vehicles (A1114) 43