Role of DE in Low Carbon Buildings of the future

Role of DE in Low Carbon Buildings of the future February 23 rd, 2017 www.communityenergy.bc.ca

Community Energy Association Purpose CEA is charitable non-profit society CEA is the trusted independent advisor to local governments We are helping local governments close the implementation gap Accelerate Climate Action with Awareness & Recognition Workshops & Presentations Research & Publications Collaboration Climate & Energy Action Awards People and Projects Projects Planning Implementation Technology Acceleration www.communityenergy.bc.ca

Community Energy Association Members www.communityenergy.bc.ca

DE Community of Practise Demonstration Project Shared Experiences www.communityenergy.bc.ca

Pathways for deep emissions reductions in buildings Context for low-carbon district energy systems Tom-Pierre Frappé-Sénéclauze @tompierrefs CEA webinar, 23 February 2017

Leading Canada s transition to a clean energy future The Pembina Institute advocates for strong, effective policies to support Canada s clean energy transition. @tompierrefs

Context Carbon reduction targets for building sector The role of energy efficiency and fuel switching Tensions between building code evolution and district energy

Annual emissions in Mt CO2e B.C. Emissions 80 70 60 50 40 30-33% BC 2020 target 20-80% 10 BC 2050 target 0 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 CIMS modeling by Navius

Annual emissions in Mt CO2e B.C. Emissions 80 70 60 50 40 30-33% BC 2020 target -30% from 2005, based on federal target 20-80% 10 BC 2050 target 0 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 CIMS modeling by Navius

Annual emissions in Mt CO2e B.C. Emissions 80 70 60 50 40 30-33% BC 2020 target -30% from 2005, based on federal target Reference case 20-80% 10 BC 2050 target 0 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 CIMS modeling by Navius

Annual emissions in Mt CO2e B.C. Emissions 80 70 60 50 40 30-33% BC 2020 target -30% from 2005, based on federal target Reference case CLP + Fed. Carbon price 20-80% 10 BC 2050 target 0 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 CIMS modeling by Navius (+ forestry credits)

Reduction target for building sector?

Reduction target for building sector? Env. & Climate Change Canada overall: -80% (below 2005) Stationary sources -87% Trottier, current technology scenario overall: -65% (below 2015) residential - 87% commercial - 76% Trottier, new technology scenario overall: -65% (below 2015) residential -89% commercial -88% Deep decarbonization pathways overall: -89% (below 2015) residential -99% commercial -99% Buildings: -80% to 100% By 2050 i.e. near total decarbonization

Proposed building sector targets 40-50% by 2030 80-100% by 2050

Net Zero Ready Commitments Ontario Code to require Net Zero Carbon for small buildings by 2030 B.C. Code to require Net Zero Energy Ready by 2032 Feds Net Zero Ready code released in 2020 for broad adoption by 2030

What about existing buildings?

Buildings emissions (Mt) Buildings emissions 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Base case NZEr building code Shallow retrofits Low carbon pathway

Low carbon pathway Efficiency Deep retrofit of 3% of stock / yr (60% reduction) Hybrid Moderate retrofit of 3% of stock / yr (25% reduction) + Fuel switch 1 out of 2 Fuel switching Fuel switching 2% of stock / yr to low carbon fuel

Electrify!

Electrify!

Images: FVB Energy, SAB mag

Methane reactor, Fraser Richmond Soil and Fibre Biogas Plant, BC Photo: GICON

3% per year Current stock Homes MURBs ICI 1 million 3% 2,500 per month 25,000 (575,000 units) 800 per year (17,000 units) 60,000 (100 million m 2 ) 1,800 per year (3 million m 2 )

3% per year Current stock Homes MURBs ICI 1 million 3% 2,500 per month 25,000 (575,000 units) 800 per year (17,000 units) 60,000 (100 million m 2 ) 1,800 per year (3 million m 2 )

Post-audits per month % of eligible stock retrofitted How does that compare? 4,000 Average energy reduction: ~ 25% 7% 3,500 6% 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 ecoenergy v.i / LSBC v.i ecoenergy v.i LSBC v.ii LSBC v.iii / ecoenergy v.ii LSBC v.iii LSBC v.iv HERO Bonus v.i & ERS 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0 0% Data: Gov. of B.C.

Tensions between DE and efficiency What is the future of district energy systems if netzero buildings become an increasing share of the building stock? Should developers be allowed to reduce efficiency if the heat supply is from a low-carbon source? Could DE business cases still work if only delivering domestic hot water? Still worth pipes in the ground?

Thanks! Tom-Pierre Frappé-Sénéclauze tompierrefs@pembina.org tw: @tompierrefs pembina.org twitter.com/pembina facebook.com/pembina.institute

Toronto is Changing CEA/NRCan Webinar: The Role of District Energy in Low Carbon Buildings of the Future Feb 23, 2017 GROWTH RESILIENCE CLIMATE CHANGE Fernando Carou, B.A.Sc., P.Eng. Lead, Community Energy Planning & Low-carbon District Energy Systems Environment and Energy Division Environment and Energy Division

Toronto is Changing Toronto s population is growing & densifying at one of the fastest rates in North America, placing demands on services & infrastructure, energy systems & the environment. About 60% of households now live in multi-residential housing. Environment and Energy Division 30

Toronto s Growth: 2000 vs 2014 Skyline Environment and Energy Division 31

Toronto s Future Weather: Wetter, Warmer & Wilder. Environment and Energy Division

Tonnes of GHG Toronto is Reducing its Environmental Footprint, but.. 30,000,000 25,000,000 20,000,000 15,000,000 10,000,000 5,000,000 5 Mt reduction - Coal Phase Out - Conservation - Methane - Land use Target 2012 Target 2020 15 Mt reduction to go by 2050 Target 2050 10 Mt Gap 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Year Environment and Energy Division 33

Toronto s GHG Emissions by Sector 2013 data Efficient Buildings & District Energy with local renewable energy sources to reduce/displace natural gas. Electric High-order Transit & EVs to reduce/displace fossil fuels. Environment and Energy Division

Developing Toronto s Transit Network Existing & Current Projects Source: March 2016 Chief Planner s report to City Council Environment and Energy Division

Developing Toronto s Transit Network 6 to 15 years Source: March 2016 Chief Planner s report to City Council Environment and Energy Division

Developing Toronto s Thermal Networks District Energy w/ Large Renewables Opportunity for 30+ new District Energy systems in Toronto Environment and Energy Division 2015 UNEP Report

Developing Toronto s Low-Carbon Thermal Networks Opportunities to co-locate energy and municipal infrastructure Sewer heat recovery, Large geo-exchange fields with solar collectors Toronto s Deep Lake Water Cooling Enwave System Environment and Energy Division Heat recovery from electric transit combined heat & power

Developing Toronto s Low-carbon Thermal Networks THE NETWORK EFFECT Environment and Energy Division

Modelling is showing that future Large Scale GHG emission reductions in Toronto may primarily come from two sets of strategies: 1. District Energy w/ Large Renewables + Efficient Buildings 2. Transit + EVs For Cities to achieve a low-carbon future District Energy is to buildings, what Transit is to transportation Environment and Energy Division

ALIGNMENT: LOW CARBON FUTURE Federal Province City Environment and Energy Division

Climate change will be fought in cities. Toronto is ready to do its part, but we can t do it alone John Tory #ParisAgreement #COP21 Environment and Energy Division 42

City of Toronto related INITIATIVES Transform TO: renewed climate action for a healthy equitable, prosperous Toronto. 30% GHG reduction by 2020, 80% GHG reduction by 2050 vs 1990 TOcore: Planning the Downtown (soft & hard infrastructure) - Energy strategy - Accelerated implementation of thermal networks w/ large renewables - Back-up power guidelines for Multi-residential buildings Toronto Green development Standard TGS V3 (2018 roll-out) - Recognition of off-site low-carbon / renewable energy - Energy Requirements above latest provincial code (OBC 2017) New Official Plan: energy strategy requirement for large developments (plan for Net Zero energy & emission). Includes Guidelines for Net-Zero Opportunities for Large Developments Environment and Energy Division

How do we support integration and collaboration for District Energy toward carbon neutrality, resilience, and local economic benefit? How do we maintain and build momentum? How do we scale up our efforts? Environment and Energy Division 44

Uncoordinated Action Big Challenges Environment and Energy Division

Coordinated Action Big Challenges Environment and Energy Division

Discussion What is your local government looking at when in comes to reducing carbon in buildings and what is the role of DE? www.communityenergy.bc.ca

Proposal to Establish a Canadian District Energy Working Group The goal is to advance the next generation of district energy in Canada: positioning the DE industry for a changing energy system and low carbon economy A diverse set of organizations will be invited to form the DE working group, starting with interested IDEA Canadian Forum members and QUEST subscribers Objectives are to: 1) Advocate for supportive policies and programs 2) Enhance awareness and education Among policymakers at the federal, provincial and municipal levels and with building developers and operators February 23 rd, 2017

Thank You Please complete the follow up survey. David Dubois Community Energy Association 604-628-7076 ddubois@communityenergy.bc.ca www.communityenergy.bc.ca www.communityenergy.bc.ca