Market potential and identified export opportunities Carl Bro Group Budapest, Hungary September 27, 2004 Bratislava, Slovakia September 30, 2004 Thomas Hernoe Environmental Expert 1
Europe ASEAN Population: 456 million Population: 481 million 2
3 Proven, Clean & Efficient Biomass, Coal, Gas Market potential for European Market potential for European cogeneration equipment suppliers? cogeneration equipment suppliers? Potential exporter Business strategy & opportunities Need for electricity & thermal energy / Biomass available Technical potential for cogeneration supply Technical applicability of European cogeneration equipment Buyer behavior Legal and regulatory framework Financial conditions: -Investment cost -Operation (fuel, elc. export) - Loan possibillities
Rice husk steam turbine cogeneration in Thailand 2.5 MW Steam turbine Reciprocating inclined grate boiler. Capacity 17 tph, 35 bar, 420 o C In operation since 1997 (COGEN phase 2 FSDP Steam used for drying of rice paddy Ash sold to steel industries (export)
Wood waste steam turbine cogeneration in Malaysia 1.5 MW steam turbine condensing 900 kw back pressure 600 kw Boiler: Capacity 16 tph, 22 bar, 280 o C In operation since 1995 (COGEN phase 2 Full Scale Demonstration Project) Steam is used for timber drying 5
Gas micro-turbine cogeneration in rubber gloves industry in Malaysia Micro-turbine 80 kwe Natural gas Hot water up to 80 C for leaching process In operation since 2002 6
Gas engine cogeneration in seal factory in Thailand 6 MW natural gas cogeneration Gas engines 3 x 2 MW Waste heat boilers 3 x 1.6 tph Absorption chillers 3 x 360 RT 7
Gas turbine cogeneration in Kuala Lumpur International Airport, Malaysia 40 MW natural gas cogeneration (or Jet A1 fuel) Gas Turbine Generator 2 x 20 MW Heat Recovery Steam Generator 2 x 40 tph Auxiliary Gas Boiler 2 x 25 tph & 1 x 40 tph Chilled water 30,000 RT Steam Absorption Chiller (12 x 2,500 RT) In operation since 1997 8
Gas turbine cogeneration in Petronas Tower, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia 25.8 MW natural gas cogeneration Gas turbine generator 2 x 4.2 MW & 2 x 8.7 MW Heat Recovery Steam Generator 2 x 10.7 tph & 2 x 18.7 tph Auxiliary gas boiler 2 x 47 tph Chilled water 30,000 RT Electrical Centrifugal Chiller 3 x 5,000 RT Steam Turbine Centrifugal Chiller 3 x 5,000 RT 4 km chilled water network of pipes In operation since 1996 9
Hybrid cogeneration in industrial estate in Thailand 514 MW cogeneration Gas turbines 6 x 35 MW Steam turbines 2 x 152 MW Circulating Fluidised Bed Boilers 2 x Heat Recovery Units 4 x Fuels Natural gas Indonesian bituminous coal Diesel oil (back up) In operation since 2000 Supplies Electricity, steam (200 tph) and demineralised water (150 m3/h) sale to industrial estate Electricity sale to grid (25-year Power Purchase Agreement)
in ASEAN Very diversified in terms of: Applications Fuels Sizes Level of technology Age Driving force for implementation Business structure.. 11
Market potential for cogeneration No coherent statistics available for ASEAN cogeneration potential So what? Indicators for cogeneration potential in ASEAN 12
Indicators for cogeneration potential Growth in electricity consumption and lack of electric capacity Many suitable applications Electricity production is based on fossil fuels Biomass available Natural gas available Electricity liberalisation and deregulation Increased awareness of cogeneration CDM attracts interest from project developers 13
Europe Installed electric capacity ASEAN Population: 456 million Installed electric capacity: 686 GW Population: 481 million Installed electric capacity: 88 GW 14
Electricity generation & cogeneration in ASEAN-countries Country Present situation electricity Installed capacity (MW) Forecast annual growth Status of cogeneration Cambodia No national grid 160 ~10% None Indonesia Malaysia Government: 56% Captive power: 40% IPP: 4% Government: 85% 23,425 13,760 ~10% 6-10% Industrial fossil fuel plants Industrial fossil fuel plants Private: 15% Few large scale natural gas cooling plants Many new and old biomass plants (rice husk & palm oil waste) Philippines Government: 55% 14,700 ~10% Industrial fossil fuel plants Private: 45% Old biomass plants (sugar bagasse) Singapore Power pool 8,140 NAV Few fossil fuel plants in petrochemical sector Few biomass plants (wood waste) Thailand Government: 60% 24,500 ~10% Industrial fossil fuel plants Private: 40% New biomass plants (rice husk) Vietnam Government: 90% Private: 10% 3,296 ~13% Industrial fossil fuel plants Private power producers include all non-government producers, e.g. Independent Power Producers (IPP), Small Power Producers (SPP) etc. 15
Fossil fuels Fuel availability Biomass Oil All ASEAN-countries Rice husk, Sugar bagasse, Palm oil, Pulp & paper Rice husk, Wood residues Rice husk, Sugar bagasse, Pulp & paper, Wood residues Coal resources Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand & Vietnam Rice husk, Palm oil, Wood residues Natural gas Thailand, Indonesia & Malaysia (own resources). Singapore (import) Rice husk, husk, palm oil, Wood residues n.a. Rice husk, Sugar bagasse, Palm oil, Pulp & paper, Wood residues n.a. Rice husk, Sugar bagasse, Palm oil, Pulp & paper, Wood residues 16
Driving forces for cogeneration projects Fossil fuel projects Need for electricity, thermal energy or cooling in industry or building Biomass projects Availability for cheap / free biomass fuel Waste problem 17
Fossil fuel reserves Fuel reserves by country Coal Oil Natural gas m. tonnes m. barrels billion ft 3 Indonesia 23 000 5 000 92 000 Malaysia 4 3 000 82 000 Philippines 350 200 3 800 Thailand 2 000 600 13 000 Vietnam 150 600 6 000 Source: IEA 18
Biomass residues yearly production Biomass by country Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand Vietnam [10 3 tonnes/year] Rice husk 11 000 500 2 500 5 900 6 100 Bagasse 9 500 300 6 200 15 000 3 500 Palm oil solid waste 1) 8 000 18 000 150 2 600 - Wood waste 2) 9 700 10 500 600 400 2 000 Other 3) n.a. 31 500 14 350 8 000 n.a. Total >38 200 60 800 51 000 31 900 >11 600 Source. Aseanenergy, Cogen 3 1) Fibre, shell, EFB (Empty Fruit Bunch) 2) From wood industry, e.g. saw-, plymills, etc. 3) Palm oil liquid waste (POME), tapioca rhizome, corn kernel etc. 19
Rice mills energy requirement & supply Process energy required: Paddy milling and drying 30-60 kwh / ton paddy 1 ton of paddy 650-700 kg white rice Waste: 220 kg rice husk 20
Sugar mills energy requirement & supply Process energy required: 25-30 kwh/tonne of sugarcane 0.4 tonne of steam 1 tonne of sugarcane 100-121 kg sugar Waste: 290 kg Bagasse 21
Palm oil mills energy requirement & supply 1 tonne of fresh fruit bunches Process energy required: 20-25 kwh/t 0.73 tonne of steam 200 kg palm oil Waste: 600-700 kg POME ~ 20 m 3 biogas 190 kg fibers + shells 230 kg empty fruit bunches 22
Power production potential Supply scenario II Malaysia 2) Thailand vs power capacity 1) tonnes/year MWel tonnes/year MWel Rice husk 150 000 19 3 900 000 499 Palm oil (fibre, shell) 6 120 000 583 470 000 45 Palm oil (EFB) 9 630 000 764 1 810 000 144 Sugar bagasse 80 000 8 6 710 000 497 Total 15 980 000 1 375 12 890 000 1 184 Based on available resources plus 50 % of current use in Malaysia and Thailand 1) Power capacity based on 5000-7000 hours annual operation and 20-25 % efficiency 2) Malaysian quantities based on Thai collectivity 23
COGEN 3 Identified Projects (1) COGEN 3 activities for ASEAN project developers & end-users Facilitation of cogeneration project development Capacity building, awareness & information = COGEN 3 Identified projects 24
COGEN 3 Identified Projects (2) 205 cogeneration projects (1.745 MW electric capacity) identified in 8 ASEAN countries Full Scale Demonstration Projects (FSDP) Potential business opportunities Already disseminated to EU suppliers as business opport. Already being implemented using EU equipment Taken by non-eu suppliers Project not ready Project cancelled 25
Cambodia (KH) 201 Rice husk Rice Rice husk cogen plant 1.5 FSDP Identified Project list (available as hardcopy) Ref. No. Primary Fuel Secondary Fuel Sector Project Description Cogen Capacity (MWe) Status as of 30 August 2004 202 Rice husk Rice 500 kw rice husk cogen plant 0.5 Very early conceptual stage; needs more follow up 203 Rice husk Rice communal rice husk cogen 2.5 Very early conceptual stage; needs more follow up plant (5 mills) 204 Rice husk Rice 500 kw rice husk cogen plant 0.5 Very early conceptual stage; needs more follow up 205 Rice husk Rice communal rice husk cogen plant (5 mills) 206 Rice husk Utility 500 kw rice husk cogen plant (compare with current diesel 207 Palm Oil Waste Cassava & Wood Indonesia (ID) Palm oil Palm l t) oil waste-fired cogeneration plant 2.5 Very early conceptual stage; needs more follow up 0.5 Very early conceptual stage; needs more follow up 1.0 Very early conceptual stage; needs more follow up 301 Natural gas 850 kva + 200 TR Demo 0.8 Cancelled project for natural gas 302 Coal Pulp & paper 50 MW cogen plant for paper 50.0 Financing OK. Project is ongoing. mill 303 Palm Palm oil 10.3 MW power generation for 10.3 Project temporarily shelved palm oil waste 304 Rice husk Rice Rice husk (power generation) Project temporarily shelved 305 Natural gas 2 x 55 MW Open-cycle gas turbine 306 Natural gas 20 MW ISO 25 MW Gas turbine plant 307 Natural gas 20 MW ISO 25 MW Natural gas plant 110.0 Project temporarily shelved 25.0 Project temporarily shelved 25.0 Project temporarily shelved 26
COGEN 3 Identified Projects (3) COGEN 3 Identified Projects Electric capacity in MW for COGEN 3 Identified Projects Vietnam, 32 Cambodia, 7 Ind o nes ia, 3 7 Cambodia 9 Vietnam 68 Indonesia 537 Lao s, 2 Thailand 705 Thailand, 6 0 M alays ia, 3 9 Lao s 1 Singapore, 5 Philip p ines, 23 Singapore 4 Philip p ines 154 Malaysia 267 27
COGEN 3 Identified Projects (4) Distribution of fuels in COGEN 3 Identified Projects COGEN 3 Technical Financial Analysis Other fuels 14 Coal & Lignite 21 Rice husk 38 Singapore 0 Thailand 22 P hilippines 6 Natural gas 36 Palm o il so lid waste 29 Ma laysia 6 La os 1 Biogas 12 Other biomass 8 Wood 15 Sugar Bagasse 23 Indonesia 6 Cambodia 8 Vie t n a m 13 28
Full Scale Demonstration Projects (FSDPs( FSDPs) Objective: Demonstrate the technical reliability and economic viability of proven European cogeneration technology to ASEAN end-users 24 FSDP Candidates selected Capacity: 0.3 41 MW (Total: 174 MW) Total Amount of EC support: 8.6 mill. EURO Total Investment: 209 mill. EURO 13 projects is expected to be implemented by end of 2004 29
Full Scale Demonstration Projects Proven, Clean & Efficient Biomass, Coal, Gas Thailand: 4 Cambodia: 1 Palm oil waste : 2 Rice husk : 4 Bagasse : 2 Wood waste : 3 Biogas : 2 Philippines: 1 Singapore: 2 Malaysia: 4 Indonesia: 1
Summary ASEAN countries very different in ASEAN very diversified European technology applicable for most projects Technical potential very large Potential exporter Business strategy & opportunities Strong focus on windows Need for electricity & thermal energy / Biomass available Technica l pote ntial for cogeneration supply Technical applicability of European cogeneration equipment Buyer behavior Legal and regulatory framework Financial conditions: -Investment cost - Operation (fuel, elc. export) - Loan possibillities 31
For more information mail to: thomas.hernoe@cogen3.net or visit COGEN 3 Website at: http://www.cogen3.net Thank You! 32