the outlook for energy: a view to 23 Todd Onderdonk 29 STI/SPFA Fall Conference September 24, 29 This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein (and in Item 1 of ExxonMobil s latest report on Form 1-K). This material is not to be reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation.
evolving energy sources percent of total 1 8 Other Nuclear Gas 6 4 2 Oil Hydro Coal 19 191 192 193 194 195 196 197 198 199 2 Biomass 1
the outlook for energy 1 countries 15 demand sectors 2 fuel types 2
global economics and energy 3
energy demand vs. income energy demand vs. income BOE per Capita 5 North America 4 North America 3 Europe Europe 2 1 23 25 Asia Pacific Asia Pacific 1 2 3 4 5 6 GDP per Capita (Thousand 25$) 4
global transportation global transportation by sector Industrial 84.5 4.4 Res/ Comm global transportation by fuel 6 5 4 23 25 25 23 1.4% Transportation 61.5 124. Power Generation 3 2 1 23: ~31 5 Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Biomass Hydro Geo Wind Solar Biofuels
global transportation global transportation by sector 7 6 25 23 1.4% Rail.7% 23 - LDV fuel demand by region 5 4 Marine Aviation 2.5% 1.9% Rest of World 9.2 7.1 United States 3 2 1 Heavy Duty Light-Duty Vehicles 2.%.3% 1.9 China 2. European Union 198 25 23 2.2 6
U.S. new light-duty vehicles U.S. new light-duty vehicle MPG MPG 4 CAFE EISA* 3 On Road EISA* 2 1 198 199 2 21 22 23 *EISA Energy Independence and Security Act 7
light-duty vehicles total fleet size millions of vehicles new vehicle mpg miles / gallon 3 25 U.S. EU 5 4 EU China 2 U.S. 3 15 1 China 2 5 1 199 21 23 199 21 23 8
light-duty-vehicle fuel demand United States European Union China 1 Biofuels 1 1 8 8 8 6 6 6 4 4 4 2 2 2 199 21 23 199 21 23 199 21 23 9
global commercial transportation global commercial transportation by sector 7 6 5 4 25 23 1.4% Rail.7% Marine Aviation 2.5% 1.9% Commercial commercial transportation v. GDP 45 23 3 25 3 Heavy-Duty 2.% 2 15 198 1 Light-Duty Vehicles.3% 198 25 23 25 5 75 1 GDP (Trillion 25$) 1
transportation by sector United States 15 25 23 -.3% Rail European Union 15 25 23.1% China 15 25 23 4.9% Marine Aviation 1 Heavy-Duty 1 1 5 Light-Duty Vehicles 5 5 198 25 23 198 25 23 198 25 23 11
global power generation global power generation by sector Industrial 84.5 4.4 Res/ Comm global power generation by fuel 5 4 25 23 1.6% 23 25 3 Transportation 61.5 124. Power Generation 2 1 23: ~31 Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Biomass Hydro Geo Wind Solar Biofuels 12
global power generation global electricity use electricity demand v. GDP K Terawatt hours 3 25 23 global power generation fuel demand by region 2.2 United States 2 15 25 Rest of World 6.2 15.8 European Union 1 27.8 5 198 China 25 5 75 1 GDP (Trillion 25$) 23: ~124 13
United States power generation cost United States power generation cost U.S. baseload, startup 225 25 cents/ kwhr 15 $6/metric ton CO 2 1 5 Coal Gas Nuclear Wind 14
power generation by region United States 3 25 23.3% European Union 3 25 23.4% China 3 25 23 3.1% 2 Wind & Solar Biomass 2 Hydro & Geo 2 Nuclear 1 5% 3% Coal 1 1 198 25 23 Gas Oil 198 25 23 198 25 23 15
growing global energy demand by sector global energy demand by sector 15 25 23 1.2% 1.6% 1 1.% 1.4% 23 5 25.4% Transportation Powergen Industrial Res/Comm 16
growing global energy demand growing global energy demand by fuel 18 12.9% 23 25 1.8% 6.6%.3% 2.3% Oil Coal Gas Biomass/ Other Nuclear 2.2% 9.3% Hydro/ Geo Wind, Solar & Biofuels Efficiency Gain 17
global liquids supply and demand global liquids supply and demand 12 25 23 1.% 27 EO Liquids Demand 9 ~34 ~38 6 OPEC Crude ~28 ~31 Biofuels NGL, OPEC Condensate, Other Non-OPEC Oil Sands 3 Non-OPEC Crude & Condensate 198 25 23 18
gas supply / demand balance North America BCFD 12 25 23 1.% Europe BCFD 12 25 23.9% Asia Pacific BCFD 12 25 23 3.7% 9 LNG 9 9 6 3 Unconventional Conventional Local Production 6 3 Pipeline 6 3 2 215 23 2 215 23 2 215 23 19
global energy demand & CO 2 emissions energy demand CO 2 emissions billion tonnes 35 3 25 23 1.2% 4 25 23 1.% 25 3 2 15 2.% 2 1.9% Non-OECD Non-OECD 1 1 5 OECD.2% OECD -.4% 198 25 23 198 25 23 *OECD: Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development2
CO 2 outlook by region United States billion tonnes 9 25 23 -.6% European Union billion tonnes 9 25 23 -.6% China billion tonnes 9 25 23 2.1% IEA Ref. Case 6 IEA Ref. Case 6 6 IEA Ref. Case 3 3 3 198 25 23 198 25 23 198 25 23 21
22 the energy imperative
integrated set of solutions increase efficiency Technology mitigate emissions expand supply 23
conclusion population and economies will expand; energy demand and CO 2 emissions will rise integrated set of solutions required increase efficiency expand supply mitigate emissions technology breakthroughs are critical meeting this demand will require a global effort 24