Costs, Impacts, and Benefits of CO2 Mitigation Y. Kay a, N. Nakicenovic, W.D. Nordhaus, F.L. Toth (Editors) CP-93-2 June 1993 Proceedings of a Workshop held on 28-30 September 1992 at IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria UB/TIB Hannover 89 112 020 283 IIASA International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis A-2361 Laxenburg D Austria Telephone: +43 2236 715210 D Telex: 079 137 iiasa a Telefax: +43 2236 71313
Contents Introduction iii OVERVIEW Measurements for Measures: Current Economic Analyses of Climate Change Ferenc L. Toth PART 1. GENERAL ISSUES Global Climate Change on the Policy Agenda Akira Yajima 27 The Economics of Greenhouse Warming: What are the Issues? William D. Nordhaus 31 Greenhouse Policy After Rio: Economics, Science, and Politics William R. Cline 41 Summary of Global Warming Uncertainties and the Value of Information: An Analysis Using CETA Stephen C. Peck, Thomas J. Teisberg 57 Looking vs. Leaping: The Timing of CO2 Control in the Face of Uncertainty and Learning Charles D. Kolstad 63
VI PART 2. IMPACTS AND DAMAGES The Economic Costs of Global Warming: Some Monetary Estimates Samuel Fankhauser 85 Macroeconomic Modeling and the Assessment of Climate Change Impacts Joel D. Scheraga, Neil A. Leary, Richard J. Goettle, Dale W. Jorgenson, Peter J. Wilcoxen 107 Climate Change and World Food Supply, Demand and Trade G. Fischer, K. Frohberg, M.L. Parry, C. Rosenzweig 133 The Costs of Climate Change: Critical Elements Michael Grubb 153 Are we Underestimating, When Valuing the Benefits of Greenhouse Gas Reduction? Huib M.A. Jansen 167 The Impact of Climate on Agriculture: A Ricardian Approach Robert Mendelsohn, William D. Nordhaus, Daigee Shaw 173 The Implications of Non-linearities in Global Warming Damage Costs Stephen C. Peck 209 PART 3. COSTS: GLOBAL ESTIMATES What Do Global Models Tell Us About the Carbon Taxes Required and the Economic Costs Entailed in Reducing CO2 Emissions? Andrew Dean 213 Tentative Conclusions from Energy Modeling Forum Study Number 12 on Controlling Greenhouse Gas Emissions Darius W. Gaskins, Jr., John P. Weyant 235
The Global Consequences of Regional Environmental Policies: An Integrated Macroeconomic, Multi-Sectoral Approach Warwick J. McKibbin, Peter J. Wilcoxen 247 The Likely Economic Impact of the Proposed Carbon/Energy Tax in the European Community Gert Jan Koopman, Matthias Mors, Jan Scherp 273 The Regional Costs and Benefits of Participation in Alternative Hypothetical Fossil Fuel Carbon Emissions Reduction Protocols Jae Edmonds, David W. Barns, My Ton 291 International Trade in Oil, Gas and Carbon Emission Rights: An Intertemporal General Equilibrium Model Alan S. Manne, Thomas F. Rutherford 315 Simulation Study on Tradable CO2 Emission Permits Kenji Okada, Kenji Yamaji 341 Top Down - Bottom Up: A Systems Engineer's View Clas-Otto Wene 355 On the Uncertainty of Estimating Global Climate Change Yuzuru Matsuoka, Mikiko Kainuma, Tsuneyuki Morita 371 vu PART 4. COSTS: NATIONAL AND REGIONAL ESTIMATES Reducing US Carbon Dioxide Emissions: An Assessment of Different Instruments Dale W. Jorgenson, Peter J. Wilcoxen 387 New Challenges for Energy-Environment Long-term Modeling: Lessons from the French Case Jean-Charles Hourcade 417 Economic Costs of Reducing CO2 Emissions: A Study of Modeling Experience in Japan Akihiro Amano 435
Vlll Costs and Benefits of CO2 Reduction in Russia Igor Bashmakov 453 Reconfiguration of the Russian Economy and Energy in Response to Environmental Problems Yu.D. Kononov 475 Study of China's Energy System for Reducing CO2 Emission He Jiankun, Wei Zhihong, Wu Zongxin 485 Review of Costs to Developing Economies R.K. Pachauri, Neha Khanna 507 Policy Instruments for CO2 Mitigation: The Case of Brazil Jose Roberto Moreira 515 Methodologies for National GHG Abatement Costing Studies Kirsten Halsndss, Gordon A. Mackenzie 541 POSTSCRIPT Mitigation and Adaptation for Climate Change: Answers and Questions Jesse H. Ausubel 557 APPENDIX Program 587 List of Participants 591