Water Planning and Stewardship Committee Item 6a February 8, 2016
Hydrologic Conditions State Water Project Allocation 2016 Water Supply Demand Balances Statewide Conservation Regulations WSDM Tracking
Precipitation (in.) 90 Wettest 88.5 in. 80 97-98 El Nino: 82.4 in. 70 60 50 Water Year to Date Average 50.0 in. 40 30 Current: 32.8 in. Last Year: 37.2 in. 20 10 Driest 17.1 in. 0 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Water Content (in.) 55 50 45 Water Year to Date 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 Current: 22.7 in. ` Normal Current Water Year 97-98 El Nino Previous Water Year 5 0 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
February 1, 2016: 130% of average at this location
Million Acre-Feet D 3.5 Capacity: 3.5 MAF Lake Oroville 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 625 TAF Increase Last Year San Luis Reservoir 1.0 0.5 0.0 Current
Thousand Acre-Feet D Lake Oroville San Luis Reservoir 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 SWP Delta Exports
Million Acre-Feet D Lake Oroville 2.0 Capacity: 2.04 MAF San Luis Reservoir 1.5 1.0 232 TAF Increase 0.5 0.0 Current Last Year
Water Content (in.) 20 15 Water Year to Date 10 5 Current: 10.8 in. Normal Current Water Year 97-98 El Nino Previous Water Year 0 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Projections from January 2016 24-Month Study 1,200 1,175 1,150 Historical Future 2015 2016 2017 1,125 1,100 Actual End of CY 2015 1,080.9 ft. End of CY 2016 1,077.9 ft. End of CY 2017 1,074.2 ft. 1,075 1,050 1,025 Shortage Trigger: 1,075 ft. Most Probable 1,000
HYDROLOGY Dry 90% Exceedence Median 50% Exceedence Wet 25% Exceedence FISHERY RESTRICTIONS Least Mod Most 17% 15% 12% 53% 48% 44% 51%
Precipitation (in.) 90 Wettest 88.5 in. 80 70 60 50 40 Current Study 15% Allocation 50.0 in. Average 30 Last Year: 37.2 in. 20 10 17.1 in. Driest 0 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
SWP Scenarios of 30% and 50% Demand Level 1.7 MAF Current trend considers WSAP performance and losses. Transfer/Exchanges of 100 TAF Continued conservation efforts and operational actions
Million Acre-Feet 30% SWP Allocation 2.0 1.7 MAF 1.5 1.0 1.06 MAF 0.86 MAF 0.5 0.96 Colorado River Aqueduct Base Supply 0.0
Million Acre-Feet 30% SWP Allocation 2.0 1.5 WSDM Storage WSAP Allocation 0.07 0.10 Transfers/Exchanges 1.7 MAF 0.57 Table A 1.0 0.5 0.96 Colorado River Aqueduct Base Supply (Historical Average Ag. Adj.) 0.0
Million Acre-Feet 50% SWP Allocation 2.0 0.10 Transfers/Exchanges 1.5 Supplies exceed demands by an estimated 320 TAF 0.96 Table A 1.7 MAF 1.0 0.5 0.96 Colorado River Aqueduct Base Supply (Historical Average Ag. Adj.) 0.0
Service Area Demands Local hydrologic conditions Water Supply Conditions SWP Allocation Lake Mead elevation End of year storage targets Transfer capacity, availability and cost Statewide mandatory conservation regulations
Climate adjustment for suppliers in warmer regions Adjustments range from 2 to 4% reduction Growth adjustments Account for new residents and developments since 2013 Drought-resilient supplies credit Capped at 8% reduction Maximum reduction of 8% reduction with all adjustments Added prohibition for homeowners associations or community service organizations For actions against homeowners from reducing or eliminating the watering of vegetation or lawns during a declared drought emergency
Current conservation target at 22% May be slightly lower depending on how many water suppliers receive adjustments
Factors for further refinements in Spring 2016 Statewide hydrologic conditions Differing regional water supply conditions Early investments in conservation Development of local, drought resistant water supplies including banked groundwater Regional compliance mechanisms Health and safety needs Additional considerations should regulations need to be extended beyond October 2016 Recognition of the California Water Action Plan for implementing a range of actions
All Member Agencies Baseline Current Period Feb-15 to Jan-16 5% 0% -5% WSAP Level 3 Target -10% -15% -20% -25% Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16-30% End of 12-Month Period
Continue to monitor developing hydrologic conditions Update supply demand balances Continue to evaluate WSAP recommendation