Oil and gas outlook For New York Energy Forum New York, NY By Adam Sieminski, Administrator U.S. Energy Information Administration U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov
The U.S. has experienced a rapid increase in natural gas and oil production from shale and other tight resources Eagle Ford (TX) Bakken (MT & ND) Spraberry (TX & NM Permian) Bonespring (TX & NM Permian) Wolfcamp (TX & NM Permian) Delaware (TX & NM Permian) Yeso-Glorieta (TX & NM Permian) Niobrara-Codell (CO, WY) Haynesville Utica (OH, PA & WV) Marcellus (PA,WV,OH & NY) Woodford (OK) Granite Wash (OK & TX) Austin Chalk (LA & TX) Monterey (CA) U.S. tight oil production million barrels of oil per day 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Marcellus (PA,WV,OH & NY) Haynesville (LA & TX) Eagle Ford (TX) Fayetteville (AR) Barnett (TX) Woodford (OK) Bakken (ND) Antrim (MI, IN, & OH) Utica (OH, PA & WV) Rest of US 'shale' U.S. dry shale gas production billion cubic feet per day 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Sources: EIA derived from state administrative data collected by DrillingInfo Inc. Data are through August 2015 and represent EIA s official tight oil & shale gas estimates, but are not survey data. State abbreviations indicate primary state(s). 2
Production growth in top U.S. crude producing regions (Permian, Bakken, Niobrara, and Eagle Ford) reversed in early 2015 monthly percent change three month rolling average 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Source: Energy Information Administration, Drilling Productivity Report, October 2015 (chart extends to November 2015) 3
Forecasts for 2016 global demand have increased faster than supply forecasts 2016 year-over-year supply and demand growth by STEO forecast month million barrels per day 1.75 1.50 1.25 1.00 2016 demand growth 0.75 0.50 0.25 2016 supply growth 0.00 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct STEO Forecast Month Source: Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook 4
Forecasts for 2016 OPEC supply have risen on the Iran deal, while non-opec forecasts have declined - driven by lower U.S. growth 2016 year-over-year supply growth by STEO forecast month million barrels per day 1.00 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.00-0.25 2016 OPEC non-crude liquids supply growth 2016 OPEC crude supply growth 2016 non-opec supply growth -0.50-0.75 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct STEO Forecast Month Source: Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook 5
Forecast OECD demand growth for 2016 have flattened 2016 year-over-year demand growth by STEO forecast month million barrels per day 1.25 1.00 2016 non-oecd consumption growth 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.00 2016 OECD consumption growth -0.25 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct STEO Forecast Month Source: Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook 6
OPEC surplus production capacity in 2015 is the lowest since 2008 OPEC surplus crude oil production capacity million barrels per day 6 Forecast 5 4 3 2 1 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Note: Shaded area represents 2004-2014 average (2.2 million barrels per day). Source: Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2015 7
OECD oil inventories are very high on a days of supply basis and are projected to continue increasing in 2016 OECD commercial oil inventories days of supply 70 68 66 64 62 60 58 56 54 October STEO January STEO Forecast 52 = 50 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Note: Colored band around days of supply represents the range between the minimum and maximum from Jan. 2010 - Dec. 2014 Source: Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook 8
Iranian crude oil production is expected to begin increasing in the 2Q 2016, inventory sales could be sooner 9
Oil supply and demand begin to rebalance in 2016 World supply and demand Implied stock change million barrels per day (MMb/d) million barrels per day 100 98 Implied stock change and balance (right axis) World production (left axis) Forecast 7 6 96 World consumption (left axis) 5 94 4 92 3 90 2 88 1 86 0 84-1 82 2010-Q1 2011-Q1 2012-Q1 2013-Q1 2014-Q1 2015-Q1 2016-Q1-2 Source: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2015 10
The market-implied confidence band for oil prices is very wide WTI price dollars per barrel 150 125 100 75 50 25 0 Historical spot price STEO forecast Nymex futures price Current 95% NYMEX futures price confidence interval June 2014 95% NYMEX futures price confidence interval Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2015 11
Long-term outlook for the United States 12
U.S. crude oil production: Supply rises above previous historical highs before 2020 in all AEO2015 cases, with a range of longerterm outcomes dependent on prices, resources and technology U.S. crude oil production million barrels per day (MMb/d) 20 History 2013 2013 2013 Reference High Oil and Gas Resource Low Oil Price 15 10 U.S. maximum production level of 9.6 million barrels per day in 1970 5 Tight oil Lower 48 offshore Other lower 48 onshore Alaska 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2020 2030 2040 2020 2030 2040 Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2015 13
U.S. natural gas trade: Projected U.S. natural gas trade reflects the spread between domestic natural gas prices and world energy prices, along with resource outcomes U.S. natural gas imports and exports trillion cubic feet History 2013 16 12 2013 Projections 2013 billion cubic feet per day Lower 48 states LNG exports 40 30 8 4 Alaska LNG exports Pipeline exports to Mexico 20 10 0 0-4 Pipeline exports to Canada Pipeline imports from Canada High Oil and Gas LNG imports Reference Low Oil Price Resource -20-8 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2020 2030 2040 2020 2030 2040 Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2015-10 14
U.S. becomes a net exporter of natural gas in the near future U.S. dry natural gas trillion cubic feet per year billion cubic feet per day History 2013 Projections 40 100 30 20 Consumption Domestic supply 75 50 10 Net exports 25 0 0-10 -25 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2015 15
Key takeaways - Oil Tight oil clearly matters for measures of U.S. oil import dependence and ability to pressure OPEC Policy debate over removing restrictions on exports of U.S. crude oil Recent EIA analysis shows no significant effects for consumers, producers, or refiners in cases where domestic production remains below 11 million barrels per day (b/d) If U.S. production were to approach or exceed 12 million b/d, as might occur under high resource assumptions, U.S. consumers realize a small reduction in gasoline prices and crude producers, modestly raise output if crude export restrictions are removed; however, the largest effects (in opposite directions) are felt by producers and refiners The Middle East remains the center of easy oil and will remain key to the future of the global oil market 16
How much will low prices stimulate oil demand? 17
The direct price effects can raise gasoline demand---as occurred recently in the United States gasoline product supplied million barrels per day (4-quarter moving average) dollars per gallon excluding taxes (nominal) (4-quarter moving average) 9.1 3.5 9 8.9 Gasoline product supplied Gasoline retail sales price to end users 3 2.5 8.8 2 8.7 1.5 8.6 1 8.5 0.5 8.4 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: Energy Information Administration, Petroleum Supply Monthly and Petroleum Marketing Monthly (as of September 2015) 0 18
Gasoline demand estimates vary 19
The macro impacts are also important---non-oecd oil consumption growth declined recently as GDP growth slowed oil consumption percent change (year-on-year) 8 7 6 non-oecd consumption growth non-oecd GDP growth* 5 4 3 2 1 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: Energy Information Administration, IHS Global Insight (as of September 2015) * Oil consumption weighted GDP 20
Prices and economic growth are important, but policy, preferences, and technology may have a bigger long-term impact What types of consumption and pricing policies will be enacted across the world? Fuel subsidies Environmental policies Domestic security policies What will light-duty vehicle trends look like? Ownership rates Efficiency and emissions standards Technology/alternative fuels Where will goods be produced and how will they be moved? Will there be major industrial sector efficiency improvements or fuel switching? 21
2015 2016 Winter Fuels Outlook 22
NOAA forecasts U.S. heating degree days this winter to be 7% lower than last winter and below the 10-year average U.S. current population-weighted heating degree days 1,100 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 10-year average Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 2015-2016 Forecast Note: EIA calculations based on National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) data. Horizontal lines indicate 10-year average over the period Oct. 2005 Mar. 2015. Projections reflect NOAA's 14-16 month outlook. Source: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2015. 23
Heating fuel market shares vary across U.S. regions Share of homes by primary space-heating fuel and Census Region Midwest Northeast West natural gas electricity heating oil/kerosene propane wood other/no heating South U.S. total 117 million homes Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration based 2014 American Community Survey 24
Expenditures are expected to be lower this winter (October 1 March 31) even if weather is significantly colder than currently forecast Percent change in fuel bills from last winter (forecast) Fuel bill Base case forecast If 10% warmer than forecast If 10% colder than forecast Heating oil Natural gas Propane * Electricity -25-33 -16-10 -17-4 -18-30 -3-3 -7 0 Note: * Propane expenditures are a volume-weighted average of the Northeast and Midwest regions. All others are U.S. volume-weighted averages. Propane prices do not reflect prices locked in before the winter heating season starts. Source: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2015. 25
Key takeaways winter fuels EIA expects heating fuel prices for homes that heat with natural gas, propane, and heating oil to be lower than prices last winter; residential electricity prices are expected to be about the same as last winter The latest outlook from government weather forecasters expects winter temperatures east of the Rocky Mountains to be warmer than last winter, with projected heating degree days in the Northeast, Midwest, and South respectively about 13%, 11%, and 8% lower; in the West, this winter is expected to be 12% colder than last winter Projected changes in average U.S. household heating fuel expenditures from last winter are: 10% lower for homes that heat primarily with natural gas 25% lower for homes using oil heat 18% lower for homes using propane heat 3% lower for homes that heat with electricity 26
Heating oil prices are forecast to be 15% lower than last winter, propane prices are forecast to be 10% lower, and natural gas prices are forecast to be 4% lower U.S. average residential winter heating fuel prices dollars per million Btu 40 30 Natural gas Heating oil Propane forecast 20 10 0 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 Source: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2015. Winter (October - March) 27
EIA has expanded the depth and breadth of its program, with more on the way International Energy Portal Monthly crude-by-rail data Analysis of the impacts of the Clean Power Plan Excel add-in tool for automatic data updates Report on federal subsidies in energy markets Ground Water Protection Council data collaboration Winter fuels prices for more states Domestic oil and gas production (EIA-914) Hourly electricity load data (EIA- 930) Effects of Removing Restriction on U.S. Crude Oil Exports Coming soon Drilling cost data Distributed solar generation data and analysis Integrating Customs and Border Protection exports data received on a more timely basis into EIA products 28
For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page www.eia.gov Annual Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/aeo Short-Term Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/steo International Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/ieo Monthly Energy Review www.eia.gov/mer Today in Energy www.eia.gov/todayinenergy State Energy Profiles www.eia.gov/state Drilling Productivity Report www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/ International Energy Portal www.eia.gov/beta/international/?src=home-b1 29