Truck Modeling and Data Overview June 14, 217
T24 Freight Performance Measures
Freight Performance Measures Efficient Freight Mobility Performance Trends (Observed Data) Percent of the Interstate System Mileage providing for Reliable Truck Travel Times -Truck Travel Time Reliability (final on May 2) Heavy tonnage truck system Transportation 24 Forecasts and Modeling Total Delay for Trucks (PHFN/network) Truck Vehicle Miles Traveled (Medium/Heavy) Total truck trips to individual MICs Per Truck Trip Delay Federal Planning Requirement
Freight: Example Metrics Transportation 24 Forecasts and Modeling Freight Measure Today Future Daily Truck Delay Hours 36,5 57,6 Daily Truck Vehicle Miles 6,118,8 8,168,5
Freight Analysis Framework FAF 4. Commodity Profiles for Seattle MSA
7 Top 1 Total Domestic Freight Rail from Rest of Country to Seattle MSA 215 (Not including within WA) 6 5 4 3 Total KTons in 215 2 1
3, Top 1 Total Domestic Freight Rail From Seattle MSA to Rest of Country 215 (not including within WA) 25, 2, 15, Total KTons in 215 1, 5,
Top 1 Total Domestic Freight by Truck Rest of Country to Seattle MSA in 215 (Not including within WA) 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 Total KTons in 215 15 1 5
6 Top 1 Total Domestic Freight by Truck from Seattle MSA to rest of Country in 215 (not including within WA) 5 4 3 Total KTons in 215 2 1 Oregon California Idaho Texas Arizona Montana Utah Indiana Illinois Colorado
Growth in Domestic Truck Tons Shipped to Seattle (215-24) K Tons 25 2 15 1 5 Gravel Nonmetal min. prods. Other foodstuffs Logs Wood prods. Mixed freight Gasoline Waste/scrap Other ag prods. Natural sands 215 24
Growth in Domestic Truck Tons Shipped from Seattle (215-24) K Tons 25 2 15 1 5 Gravel Nonmetal min. prods. Logs Wood prods. Mixed freight Gasoline Waste/scrap Other foodstuffs Fuel oils Natural sands 215 24
1 Domestic Mode of Total Water Borne Imports through Seattle MSA in 215 9 8 7 6 5 4 Total KTons in 215 3 2 1 Truck Rail Water Multiple modes & mail Pipeline No domestic mode
7 215 Value of Water Shipped Commodity Exports from Seattle M$ 6 5 4 3 2 1 Gasoline Fuel oils Gasoline Mixed freight Mixed freight Mixed freight Mixed freight Mixed freight Mixed freight Fuel oils Canada Canada Mexico Eastern Asia Europe Africa Rest of Americas SE Asia & Oceania SW & Central Asia Mexico
215 Air Cargo Export Value to Seattle by Commodity, Destination, and Domestic Origin (M$) 12 1 8 6 4 2 Electronics Electronics Transport equip. Portland OR- WA (OR Part) SE Asia & Oceania Machinery Electronics Precision instruments Seattle WA Seattle WA Seattle WA Portland OR- WA (OR Part) Transport equip. Europe Eastern Asia Eastern Asia Eastern Asia Eastern Asia Europe Basic chemicals Precision instruments Electronics Seattle WA Seattle WA Seattle WA Seattle WA Seattle WA Rest of Americas Europe Eastern Asia
215 Air Cargo Export Value from Seattle by Commodity and Destination M$ 12 1 8 6 4 2 Electronics Basic chemicals Electronics Machinery Precision instruments Transport equip. Machinery Precision instruments Electronics Electronics Eastern Asia Rest of Americas Europe Eastern Asia Europe Eastern Asia Europe Eastern Asia Canada SE Asia & Oceania
215 Domestic Air Cargo from Seattle by Commodity and Destination (M$) 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Transport equip. Electronics Transport equip. Memphis TN- Louisville KY- MS-AR (TN IN (KY Part) Part) San Antonio TX Electronics Electronics Electronics Electronics Metallic ores Electronics Electronics Memphis TN- MS-AR (TN Part) Mississippi New York NY- NJ-CT-PA (NY Part) Atlanta GA Salt Lake City UT Indianapolis IN Dallas-Fort Worth TX-OK (TX Part)
215 Domestic Air Cargo to Seattle by Commodity and Origin (M$) 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Transport equip. Transport equip. Transport equip. Transport equip. Transport equip. Precision instruments Misc. mfg. prods. Electronics Precision instruments Motorized vehicles Los Angeles CA Wichita KS Rest of IL Miami FL Phoenix AZ Mississippi New York Nashville TN Los Angeles NY-NJ-CT-PA CA (NY Part) Los Angeles CA
Air Cargo Growth Domestic from Seattle MSA (215 24) M$ 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 215 24
Air Cargo Growth Domestic to Seattle MSA (215-24) M$ 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 215 24
Air Cargo Export Growth from Seattle (215-24) M$ 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Electronics Electronics Precision instruments SE Asia & Oceania Precision instruments Electronics Machinery Transport equip. Transport equip. Machinery Basic chemicals Europe Eastern Asia Europe Eastern Asia Eastern Asia Eastern Asia Europe Europe Rest of Americas 215 24
Air Cargo Import Growth to Seattle (215-21) M$ 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Machinery Electronics Transport equip. Furniture Machinery Precision instruments Europe Eastern Asia Eastern Asia Europe SE Asia & Oceania Transport equip. Misc. mfg. prods. Electronics Precision instruments Europe Europe Eastern Asia Europe SE Asia & Oceania 215 24
Millions of Ton-Miles Forecast Domestic Growth to Seattle 6 5 4 3 2 1 Total Ton-Mile in 215 Total Ton-Mile in 24 Seattle WA Truck Seattle WA Rail Seattle WA Water Seattle WA Air (include truck-air) Seattle WA Multiple modes & mail Seattle WA Pipeline
Millions of Ton Miles Domestic Growth from Seattle 6 5 4 3 2 1 Total Ton-Mile in 215 Total Ton-Mile in 24 Seattle WA Truck Seattle WA Rail Seattle WA Water Seattle WA Air (include truck-air) Seattle WA Multiple modes & mail Seattle WA Pipeline
Growth in Water Borne Import Ton Miles destined for Seattle (215 24) 25 2 15 1 5 Total Ton-Mile in 215 Total Ton-Mile in 24 Water Seattle WA Truck Water Seattle WA Water Water Seattle WA Pipeline Water Seattle WA Rail Water Seattle WA Multiple modes & mail Water Seattle WA No domestic mode
Growth in Water Borne Export Ton Miles from Seattle (215-24) 25 2 15 1 5 Total Ton-Mile in 215 Total Ton-Mile in 24 Truck Rail Water Multiple modes & mail Pipeline
Growth in Water Borne Export Value by Commodity and Destination (215-24) M$ 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Other ag prods. Other foodstuffs Machinery Meat/seafood Electronics Cereal grains Machinery Gasoline Other foodstuffs Eastern Asia Eastern Asia Eastern Asia Eastern Asia Eastern Asia Eastern Asia Europe Canada SE Asia & Oceania 215 24 Precision instruments Eastern Asia
16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Growth in Water Borne Import Value by Commodity and Origin (215-24) M$ Electronics Machinery Misc. mfg. prods. Textiles/leather Transport equip. Motorized vehicles Furniture Plastics/rubber Articles-base metal Textiles/leather Eastern Asia Eastern Asia Eastern Asia Eastern Asia Eastern Asia Eastern Asia Eastern Asia Eastern Asia Eastern Asia SE Asia & Oceania 215 24
Truck Modeling at PSRC
Previous Truck Modeling at PSRC Generated medium and heavy truck trips using employment inputs: Included special generators for Port Facilities and warehouses. Trip lengths were based on national data collected in the early 2 s. A very small sample of truck counts (~3) were used for validation.
On-going Truck Modeling Updates Generated medium and heavy truck trips using employment inputs: Added in over 3+ counts for model validation At-Grade rail crossing delay added to the network Revised where truck trips can be generated Origin/Destination data used to improve truck trip distribution Updated external truck data
Why are heavy trucks going there? As with most things, it is traced back to the inputs. If a building has a company with manufacturing employment reported, it gets heavy trucks generated.
How can you fix it? The land use and employment needs to match. Scripted a process that createsa flag if a zone has land uses that support heavy truck generation.
How does it compare to counts? Comparison at new count locations matches counts fairly well - and outliers are near externals.
Can big data help us? Although we do a better job of matching counts, we still don t understand the overall truck demands and where trucks really go. Is there a data source that can: Inform on the Origin/Destination of truck trips, not just the generation of them? Update the flow of trucks to/from/through the region from other places?
ATRI Truck Data WSDOT Gateway program purchased existing heavy truck o-d data from ATRI Data was expanded for the region using expansion factors developed by WSDOT and ATRI Current truck model appears to over-forecast heavy truck volumes 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, ATRI Regionwide Heavy Truck Trips: 8,6 PSRC Model Heavy Truck Trips: 14, AM MD PM EV NI
ATRI Truck Data: Internal vs External Trucks 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% ATRI External % of Heavy Truck Trips: 23% PSRC Model External % of Heavy Truck Trips: 26% 4% 3% 2% 1% % AM MD PM EV NI Internal External
ATRI Truck Data: External Truck Components 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % AM MD PM EV NI External to Internal Internal to External External to External There are about 18, external truck trips in the region on a daily basis 38% come from somewhere else to here. 41% go from here to somewhere else. 21% of truck pass through the region.
ATRI Truck Data: Truck Trip Origins I-5 External at Thurston County has almost twice as much truck volume as I-9
ATRI Truck Data: Truck Trip Destinations Similar Locations to Origins I-5 South External has largest truck volumes
Next Steps with ATRI Data Update PSRC Truck Model for Heavy Trucks using ATRI data: Replace current external truck data (from the early 2 s) with this data set. Use data to scale and update the generation of heavy truck trips and where they go.
Transportation 24 Plan Update TPB Decision Guide (draft) Board Action Engagement Briefing MAR APR MAY JUN JULY SEP OCT NOV DEC Access & Parking Regional Integrated Transit Network Performance Measures (Health & Equity) Performance Measures Capacity Project Submittals Climate Change Financial Strategy (Revenue & Expenditure Estimates) Transit Asset Management Targets Financial Strategy Regional Outcomes Financial Strategy State Facilities Action Plan Draft Plan System Analysis Report Climate Change Safety Targets Draft Plan System Analysis Report Public Engagement Report-out Asset Management Proposal Draft Plan System Analysis Report Release Plan for Public Comment Information Item Transit Asset Management Project Submittals Health & Social Equity Report Climate Change Asset Management Proposal June 6, 217 Version
Questions? Craig Helmann 26-389-2889 chelmann@psrc.org Sean Ardussi 26-464-78 sardussi@psrc.org