Japanese Perspectives on the Canadian Energy Sector (Oil Sands) September 8th, 2011 Toshi Hirata
Scope of presentation Who is JACOS? World Energy Supply and Demand Current Status of Oil Sands Development in Canada Energy Supply & Demand in Japan and Japan s energy policy after The Great East Japan Earthquake on March 11 Japanese/Asian Perspectives on the Canadian Energy Sector
JACOS has a long history of technology development Oil Shock in 1973! JACOS was established in 1978. 79 83 83 88 88 92 92 94 92 97 97 10 P.C.E.J. P : Petro-Canada C : Canadian Oxy E : Imperial Oil J : JACOS
What s next for JACOS? Successful start-up of the Hangingstone Expansion Project in 2014. Development of Corner and Chard JACOS holds approximately 1.7 billion barrels of recoverable bitumen resource. Hangingstone Demonstration Project(10,000b/d) Hangingstone Expansion Project (up to 35,000b/s) JACOS Net Leases 460 km 2
Average projected real GDP Growth during 2010-2011 % % % % GDP: Gross Domestic Product
White Paper 2010 by METI Japan
Global energy demand will continue to grow, driven by emerging economies around the world led by China. World Energy Outlook IEA 2010
Continuing reliance on fossil fuels (oil, coal and natural gas)
CAPP 2010
Thousand barrels per day Oil Sands (Bitumen and SCO) & Conventional Production Growth Case by CAPP 6,000 Actual Forecast 5,000 4,000 Jun '09 Forecast 3,000 In Situ 2,000 Oil Sands (Bitumen and SCO) Mining 1,000 Conventional Heavy heavy 0 Conventional Light Pentanes 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
Top World Oil Net Importers EIA 2008 Rank Country Import(10^6 barrels/day) 1 United States 12.22 2 Japan 4.90 3 China 3.67 4 Germany 2.32 5 South Korea 2.21 6 India 1.96 7 France 1.89 8 Spain 1.58 9 Italy 1.51 10 Taiwan 0.95 11 Netherlands 0.90 12 Singapore 0.89 13 Turkey 0.64 14 Belgium 0.62 15 Thailand 0.60 All total 36.86 Asian countries total 15.18(41%)
Japan depends on oil for 45% of its energy requirements, and 90% of the oil is imported from the Middle East. Asia including Japan needs to secure oil supply and diversify its oil sources, and Canada needs to expand and diversify its market to outside of North America.
Long -Term Energy Supply and Demand Outlook 2009 before The Great East Japan Earthquake on March 11 The Federation of Electric Power Companies of Japan
Long -Term Energy Supply and Demand Outlook 2009 before The Great East Japan Earthquake on March 11 The Federation of Electric Power Companies of Japan
Review of Japan s Energy Policy is ongoing after The Great East Japan Earthquake 38 out of 54 reactors at the 17 nuclear power plants in Japan are currently down(as of August 3) No dates are set for their return to service It will not be easy to establish national consensus about the safety of nuclear plants Risk of power shortages of up to 10% in the summer of 2012 Risk of electricity costs rising by as much as 20%
38 out of 54 reactors at the 17 nuclear power plants in Japan are currently down(as of August 3) No dates are set for their return to service It will not be easy to establish national consensus about the safety of nuclear plants Risk of power shortages of up to 10% in the summer of 2012 Risk of electricity costs rising by as much as 20% Agenda: Review of Japan s Energy Policy is ongoing after The Great East Japan Earthquake Direction of future nuclear policy in light of the accident Energy conservation and electricity saving suited to new lifestyles Energy policy conducive to the revival of the Japanese economy Reform of Japan s energy supply system (electricity, oil, gas, and renewable energy) Medium- to long-term energy supply structure
Japanese Perspectives on the Canadian Energy Sector
Japanese Perspectives on the Canadian Energy Sector Japan needs to enhance the usage of Fossil Fuelled Power Plants to make up for the energy shortage Japan needs to secure long term and stable hydrocarbon supplies Japan needs to diversify its oil sources Japan will seriously look for natural gas sources as a clean fuel
Japanese Perspectives on the Canadian Energy Sector Japan needs to enhance the usage of Fossil Fuelled Power Plants to make up for the energy shortage Japan needs to secure long term and stable hydrocarbon supplies Japan needs to diversify its oil sources Japan will seriously look for natural gas sources as a clean fuel Canada has huge oil sands and shale gas resources and a stable government Canada has huge potential to expand its oil and gas market to Asia which will become the world s biggest factory and consumer market.
Japanese Perspectives on the Canadian Energy Sector Japan needs to enhance the usage of Fossil Fuelled Power Plants to make up for the energy shortage Japan needs to secure long term and stable hydrocarbon supplies Japan needs to diversify its oil sources Japan will seriously look for natural gas sources as a clean fuel Canada has huge oil sands and shale gas resources and a stable government Canada has huge potential to expand its oil and gas market to Asia which will become the world s biggest factory and consumer market. Infrastructure development (pipelines, roads, harbors, industrial parks, etc.) will be required to make this happen Collaborative efforts between government and industry should be promoted to enhance the future growth of energy development between Canada and Asia
Asia could contribute to the Hot Canadian Labor Market
Asia could contribute to the Hot Canadian Labor Market One quarter of the current Canadian construction workforce is expected to retire in the next decade. About 160,000 workers will need to be recruited from outside Canada
Asia could contribute to the Hot Canadian Labor Market One quarter of the current Canadian construction workforce is expected to retire in the next decade. About 160,000 workers will need to be recruited from outside Canada Asia could help solve the manpower issues in Canada by providing engineering centers in Asia and sending skilled workers to Canada
Asia could contribute to the Hot Canadian Labor Market One quarter of the current Canadian construction workforce is expected to retire in the next decade. About 160,000 workers will need to be recruited from outside Canada Asia could help solve the manpower issues in Canada by providing engineering centers in Asia and sending skilled workers to Canada There could be many win-win scenarios between Canada and Asia by facilitating the flow of human resources, goods, capital, and knowledge.
Thank you/ おわり