Freight Trends: Moving Goods in the 21 st Century Jason J. Bittner Associate Researcher Deputy Director National Center for Freight and Infrastructure Research and Education (CFIRE) University of Wisconsin-Madison April 10, 2008
Overview 2 Background on CFIRE Quick History on Freight Movements in America Freight Demand Driving Factors Freight Implications Solutions
CFIRE 3 Theme: Sustainable Freight Transportation Infrastructure and Systems 1 of 10 federally funded USDOT National University Transportation Centers Dr. Teresa M. Adams, Director Professor, Civil and Environmental Engineering
CFIRE 4 4 Signature Technical Areas of Research: Design, Materials and Construction Processes (Chair, Dr. Michael Oliva) Multimodal Systems Planning and Optimization (Chair, Dr. Jessica Guo) Traffic Operations and Safety (Chair, Dr. David Noyce) Energy and Environment (Chair, Dr. Tracey Holloway)
18th 5 Century/Sail Era
19th 6 Century/Rail Era
20th 7 Century/Truck Era
8 21st Century/Information Era Atlantic Coast Canadian Border Pacific Coast Gulf Coast Mexican Border
The 9 Big Picture Economy: Manufacturing to Service Decline in manufacturing employment, but increase in manufacturing output Customer-driven shift to customized, mass-market market products and services Emergence of e-freight; e internet based ordering and distribution
Freight 10 Tonnage is increasing Source: Global Insight, Inc., 2004 TRANSEARCH data and economic forecasts.
11 Freight Demand Growth 160 140 120 Air Other Water Rail Truck Total Percent 100 80 60 Rail Freight 40 20 0 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 Source: Global Insight, Inc.
Factors 12 Driving Freight Demand Consumption Population growth Consumption habits Production & Distribution Changes in Location and Practices Trade Expanded import and export movements (globalization) Supply Chain Optimization
13 Mega Regions / Consumption Source: Carbonell et al, Global Gateway Regions, The United States of America s Third Century Strategy, Southern California Association of Governments, Los Angeles, CA, Sept. 2005
Mega 14 Regions Source: America 2050 Regional Plan Association 4 Irving Place, 7th Floor, New York, NY 10003 Copyright America 2050, 2006
Production 15 Changes from push to pull systems
Source: Jean Paul Rodrigue, Hofsta University Trade 16 Traffic at 50 Largest Container Ports, 2004
Imports 17 / Exports 2005
Source: State of Logistics Report, Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals, 2006 Supply 18 Chain Optimization Year
Logistics Improvements, 19 Manufacturing Days
Freight 20 Implications Smaller shipments of light, high- value freight moving longer distances Reliability and speed increasingly important Increasing demand for packaged and air freight services Carrier consolidation to drive down the cost of operation
21 2002 Freight Flow by Mode
22 Local vs. Regional Trip length= <100 miles 100<Trip length =<200 miles 200<Trip length =<300 miles 300<Trip length =500 miles Trip length >500 miles
23 Freight Rail and Public Policy 2005 Rail Tons 2005 Truck Tons 2035 Additional Rail Tons 2035 Additional Truck Tons Source: National Rail Freight Infrastructure Capacity and Investment Study, Sept 2007
24 Issues Reliability & Predictability of transportation services Land Use Capacity Productivity Air Quality
Source: Cambridge Systematics 2007 25 Reliability & Bottlenecks
26 Freight Flow by Mode/Bottlenecks
27 Land Use Delicate Balance Recreation Housing Economic Activity Ports are land constrained
Capacity 28 All modes have capacity issues Rail conditions Highway congestion Locks and Dams Shipping
Productivity 29 (Size/Weight) Infrastructure Concerns Bridges Safety Concerns Stopping distances Collision severity Geometry
Possible 30 Solutions Do nothing Reduce consumption Use Information Technology solutions Advanced traffic management systems Better Traveler Information WIM / VII Policy and financing developments New freight transportation network Congestion pricing Mileage based tax vs. excise tax/gallon Managed lanes // Electronic tolling Size and Weight Modifications (increase productivity) Public Transportation Improvements Add infrastructure Expand: more roadway lanes, more railway lines New roadway/railway
Corridors 31 of the Future
I-70 Truck Lane 32 Project Corridor
Concept 33
National 34 Commission on Transportation Policy & Revenue Freight Transportation: A Program to Enhance U.S. Global Competitiveness Congestion Relief: A Program for Improved Metropolitan Mobility Environmental Stewardship: Investment Program to Support a Healthy Environment Energy Security: Accelerate the Development of Environmentally-Friendly Replacement Fuels Research, Development, & Technology: A Coherent Research Program for the Nation Intercity Passenger Rail: A Program to Serve High-Growth Corridors by Rail
35 Contact National Center for Freight & Infrastructure Research and Education (CFIRE)( Dr. Teresa Adams, Director, adams@engr.wisc.edu Jason Bittner, Deputy Director, bittner@engr.wisc.edu http:// http://cfire.wistrans.org 608/263-26552655