Climate Change and Air quality Air pollutants
Impacts of Human Activities are Felt on Scales from Local to Global Slides courtesy of Prof. Gregory R. Carmichael, University of Iowa
Smith et al.
Interactions between mitigating climate change and addressing other environmental problems Air quality Acid deposits Replacement of coal and heavy oil Reduction of SO2 and NOx Biodiversity loss Use of biomass Reduction of CFCs Ozone depletion Sequestration, use of biomass Hydro power Forestry Reforestation Water Desertification
U.S. 186.1 Total CO 2 emission s since 1950 in billions of tons European Union 127.8 Russia 68.4 Canada 14.9 Ukraine 21.7 Poland 14.4 Kazakhstan 10.1 China 57.6 Japan 31.2 Mexico 7.8 Trinidad and Tobago South Africa 8.5 Kuwait United Arab Emirate s India 15.5 Australia 7.6
Air Pollution Emissions Trends Differ by SO 2 Emissions Region!Asia energy consumption is ~20% of the world s total (1995), projected to reach ~30% in 2020 1 China China s energy needs are projected to continue to grow at substantial rates, and with a continued reliance on coal Sulfur emissions may follow the same trend kilotons SO2 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 Factors contributing to the decline of European SO 2 emissions 0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Actual SO2 emissions Energy structure Energy technology Emission control technology Source: Wuester, 2000
Urban Environments in Asia 4%/yr urban growth rate in Asia-Pacific region 23 megacities in 1995 (17 in developing countries) to 36 in 2025 (23 in Asia) Asia presently has ~1 billion urban dwellers, projected to grow to ~3 billion in 2025 10 Asian Megacities will account for ~40% of GNP in 2025 Each 1 million urban inhabitants emit average of 25,000 tons of CO 2 every day (six times global per capita average) Indoor and Outdoor air pollution pose severe human health concerns
The University of Iowa, USA Health impact of urban air pollution in China Health Economic valuation impacts $ per unit m$ in total Mortality Premature death 180000 60000 10800 Morbidity (1000 cases) Respiratory hospital admissions 354 284 100 Emergency room visits 6928 23 159 Lower respiratory infection/child asthma 678 13 9 Asthma attacks 76885 4 308 Respiratory symptoms 5394935 0.6 3237 Chronic bronchitis 1798 8000 14386 Restricted days (years) 4644191 2.32 3933 Total 32932 Source: Shah and Peng, et al, 2001 ~ 5-8% of China s GDP is lost every year to air pollution health effects This might increase to 15% of GDP/year by 2030
Reductions of emissions of CO2 and particulates precursors are positively correlated: PM2.5 Precursors Reduction (%) 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% CNG vs EPA94 diesel bus Particulate Traps 00 Taxi Renovation Extended buses lifespan Res:Kerosene to NG Boilers: Diesel to NG Diesel-electric buses Wood to NG (deforestation) Incandescent to CFL Mercury to sodium lamps Efficient fluorescent lights -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Carbon Reduction (%) Local pollution health benefits of reducing greenhouse gas emissions are significant
Beyond CO 2 mitigation Could a health-based approach to reducing air pollution/greenhouse gas emissions work in the U.S.? Beyond CO 2 emission mitigation issues, reduction of global emissions in future will affect Northern Hemisphere air quality.
OZONE TREND AT EUROPEAN MOUNTAIN SITES, 1870-1990 1990 Marenco et al. [1994] Increase is important from pollution and climate perspectives } Preindustrial ozone models
THIS OZONE BACKGROUND IS A SIZABLE INCREMENT TOWARDS VIOLATION OF U.S. AIR QUALITY STANDARDS (e ven more s o in Euro pe!) Europe (8-h avg.) Europe (s eas onal) U.S. (8-h avg.) U.S. (1-h avg.) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 ppbv preindustrial present background
These dust outbreaks caused severe problems in China These photos are reduced-resolution versions of photos taken by Dr. Zev Levin while visiting Baicheng, Jilin Province, China (NE of Beijing) during the dust storm. The first two were taken on April 7th. The third was taken on April 8th. The two buildings seen in the foreground of the third image are also seen in the second From P. Westphals web site: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/aerosol/case_studies/20010413_epac/
Visitors to Death Valley, California were puzzled by a persistent haze over the past weekend (April 14th and 15th, 2001). In a region where the skies are almost always crystal clear, visibility was limited to no more than 10 miles. The likely cause was dust, carried across the Pacific Ocean from the deserts of Asia.
The dust cloud passed over the Midwest, over NE US and into the Atlantic. As reported by: http://www.boston.com/dailyglobe2/110/metro/massive_dust_cloud_to_travel_over_n_e_+.shtml http://www.rockymountainnews.com/drmn/local/article/0,1299,drmn_15_320482,00.html From: http://capita.wustl.edu/asiadust0104/reports/theperfectstorm.htm GOES8 (East) view of dust streak on the evening of Friday 13 th
Atmospheric composition in the 21 st century Trop. O 3 Mean abundance of background tropospheric ozone will increase from 20-40 ppbv to 60-80 ppbv in 2100 Background level of ozone in the northern mid-latitudes will be close to the current clean-air standard. No longer be possible to regulate air quality locally!