Climate Change Impacts for the Central Coast and Hunter Regions http://www.ozcoasts.gov.au/climate/ima ges/f1_risks.jpg Peter Smith 1
Climate change will have increasing impacts on a wide range of natural processes Even if current global emission targets are successful the climate of NSW is likely to change The rate, magnitude and significance of these changes and the impacts on human society and ecosystems will not be consistent across Australia The rate, magnitude and significance of these changes and the impacts on human society and ecosystems will not be consistent across Australia NSW covers a range of climatic conditions that are not experienced within other areas of Australia. In particular NSW is unique in having a rainfall regime that includes both winter and summer dominated and well as large areas with even rainfall distribution. 2 2
3 But what is actually happening?
4 http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/tvs.year+month.lrg.gif
How it works
Modeling Global Climate http://celebrating200years.no aa.gov/breakthroughs/climate _model/modeling_schematic. html
7 Global to Regional
The real problem for those involved in local scale issues How large are the changes? How fast will they occur? What impact will they have on human and natural systems and how will they respond? What can be done to adapt to unavoidable changes? 8
9 Do we see consistent changes in NSW? http://www.environment.nsw.gov.au/climatechange/20110203obsnswclim2010.htm
NSW Climate Impact Profile http://www.environment.nsw.gov.au/resources/climatechange/10171climateimpactprof.pdf 10
Global Climate Model Projections for NSW NSW Contracted UNSW to provide preliminary climate projections for 2050 UNSW evaluated Model outputs for this region and selected those that performed best for NSW The data presented is a multi model mean derived from 4 models They used the A2 SRES scenario They have not produced a PDF of possible future climates New projections in pipeline for 2014 11 http://www.environment.nsw.gov.au/resources/climatechange/10171climateimpactprof.pdf
Projected Change In Seasonal Temperature Change in mean maximum temperatures Spring, Summer, Autumn and Winter 12
13 Change in mean daily rainfall Spring, Summer, Autumn and Winter
Spatial and temporal Variability 14 14
average Monthly Precipitation mean monthly precipitation Climate variability in NSW South West Riverina monthly historical rainfall varaibility compared to 2050 projections 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec month 1900-1930 1930-1960 1960-90 2000-2006 2040-2060 Example of Seasonal Rainfall Variability for North Coast using Historical Data in Comparison to 2050 Projections 250 200 150 100 50 1900-1919 1920-1939 1940-1959 1960-1979 1980-2000 2000-2006 2040-2059 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec month 3.5 3 2.5 http://www.environment.nsw.gov.au/resource s/climatechange/10171climateimpactprof.pdf 15 2 1.5 1 0.5 0-0.5-1 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1950-70 71-90 91-2007 80-2000 60-90 2050 low 2050 high
Report findings Impacts on settlements Increased risk of heat stress Coastal inundation and erosion: risks to coastal infrastructure, residential and commercial development Settlements along estuaries and beaches are most vulnerable Increased flood risk Impacts on air quality (ozone and particles) 16
Report findings Impacts on lands Variable depending on region Increased sheet, rill and gully erosion Increased risk of wind erosion in southern areas Increased mass movement of soil on slopes Erosion of coastal dunes and river banks Sediment deposition and saltwater inundation of floodplains Improvement in acid sulphate soils in long term 17
Report findings Impacts on ecosystems Impacts of sea level rise, coastal erosion, fire and temperature Most at risk: coastal lowlands, estuarine habitats Impacts on migratory shorebirds Fish populations likely to decline 18
Climate Impacts for the Central Coast and Hunter Regions
Climate Projections Central Coast Temperature Virtually certain to rise. Average daily maximum and minimum temperatures are likely to increase in all seasons by 1.5 to 3.0 C). Rainfall Likely to increase in all seasons except winter. Hunter Temperature Virtually certain to rise. Average daily temperatures are likely to increase in all seasons, with greatest increases in spring and winter (by 2.0 to 3.0 C). Rainfall Increases likely in all seasons except winter..
Physical Impacts
22 Clarke, Smith & Pitman (2011). Regional signatures of future fire weather over eastern Australia from global climate models. International Journal of Wildland Fire
Biophysical Impacts Central Coast Hunter
SCOTTS HEAD SHORELINE PLANFORM EVOLUTION AGE CE/AD 1600 1300 1000 850 500 200 MID HOLOCENE 24 Goodwin et al., in prep, 2012