Indiana Energy Landscape presented to WIndiana 2008 June 17-18, 2008 presented by David Nderitu / Doug Gotham State Utility Forecasting Group
Outline Characteristics of Indiana s existing generation Emissions Consumers Prices Summary NOTE: All data from Energy Information Administration unless otherwise noted
Fuel Sources for Electric Power in 2005 United States Indiana Coal 50 % 96 % Nuclear 20 % 0 % Natural Gas 15 % 3 % Petroleum 6 % 0 % Renewables 8 % 0.4 % Indiana numbers do not include out-ofstate generators that serve Indiana customers Cook (nuclear) in Michigan Madison (natural gas) in Ohio Trimble County (coal) in Kentucky
In 2006. Indiana produced 3.2 % of the electricity generated in the U.S. Indiana produced 6.2 % of the electricity generated from coal in the U.S. Indiana produced 0.3 % of the electricity generated from natural gas in the U.S.
1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s MW ENERGY CENTER Coal-fired Generating Capacity by Decade Installed 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 # of units MW 1940s 1 45 1950s 20 1847 1960s 12 2275 1970s 17 6938 1980s 9 5736 1990s 2 289
1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 MW ENERGY CENTER Projected Resource Requirements 40000 35000 SUFG Required Resources 30000 25000 20000 15000 Existing Resources 10000 5000 Projected Demand w ith 15 Percent Reserve Margin 0 Year Source: Indiana Electricity Projections: The 2007 Forecast, State Utility Forecasting Group
Coal Developments IMPA share of Prairie State (IL), Trimble County (KY), and Thoroughbred (KY) Duke Energy integrated coal gasification unit at Edwardsport Proposed syngas facility
Natural Gas Developments Hoosier Energy Wabash Valley Power proposed purchase of Holland combined cycle facility (IL) NIPSCO proposed purchase of Sugar Creek combined cycle facility (IN)
Wind Developments Benton County Wind Farm Duke Energy and Vectren Fowler Ridge Wind Farm Indiana Michigan Hoosier Wind Farm Indianapolis Power & Light NIPSCO pending purchases (IA and MN)
Summary of Generation Characteristics Indiana is heavily reliant on coal for electricity generation But becoming slightly less so The existing fleet has been in place for 20 to 50 years New resources will be needed in the near future
2006 CO 2 Emissions (metric tons) 300,000,000 250,000,000 TX 200,000,000 150,000,000 100,000,000 MI KY IL IN OH 50,000,000 0
2006 NO x emissions (metric tons) 300,000 TX 250,000 OH 200,000 IN 150,000 100,000 MI IL KY 50,000 0
2006 SO 2 emissions (metric tons) 1,000,000 OH 900,000 800,000 IN 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 IL MI KY 200,000 100,000 0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 ENERGY CENTER Emissions Trends for Indiana 1.4 Electricity Industry (normalized to 1990 values) 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 Generation CO2 SO2 NOX 0
Emissions Indiana ranks in the top 5 in emissions of CO 2, SO 2, and NO x Reliance on coal Large industrial sector Emissions levels have decreased substantially for SO 2 and NO x (and CO 2 has grown slower than sales) Uncertainty over future rules Mercury, CO 2
2006 Residential Electricity Sales (MWh) 140,000,000 TX 120,000,000 100,000,000 80,000,000 60,000,000 IL OH 40,000,000 KY IN MI 20,000,000 0
2006 Commercial Electricity Sales (MWh) 140,000,000 120,000,000 CA 100,000,000 80,000,000 60,000,000 40,000,000 MI OH IL 20,000,000 KY IN 0
2006 Industrial Electricity Sales (MWh) 120,000,000 TX 100,000,000 80,000,000 60,000,000 40,000,000 MI KY IL IN OH 20,000,000 0
400,000,000 2006 Total Electricity Sales (MWh) 350,000,000 TX 300,000,000 250,000,000 200,000,000 150,000,000 IL OH 100,000,000 KY IN MI 50,000,000 0
Indiana Electricity Consumers Indiana has a large industrial base Indiana s industries tend to be electric intensive Steel Aluminum Chemicals Transportation equipment
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 ENERGY CENTER Indiana Real Electricity Prices (Investor-owned utilities, 2005 cents/kwh) 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Source: Indiana Electricity Projections: The 2007 Forecast, State Utility Forecasting Group
ID WV WY KY UT NE WA ND MO IN OR SD VA KS MT TN MN SC AR IA IL AL OK NM NC CO GA OH WI MI AZ LA MS PA NV MD DE TX FL DC VT ME NJ CA AK NH RI CT NY MA HI ENERGY CENTER 2006 All Sector Electricity Retail Price (cents/kwh) 25 IN 6.46 - rank #10 20 15 10 U.S. average 8.90 5 -
Summary Coal is the dominant fuel for electricity generation The industrial sector is very significant Emissions are relatively high but falling Prices are relatively low but rising