Climate Change Finance and Aid for Trade Maximizing Benefits for LDCS AND SIDS Dr Amos Enock Majule Senior Research Fellow, Institute of Resource Assessment, University of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, Box 35097 e-mail: amajule@ira.udsm.ac.tz or amajule2000@yahoo.co.uk Mobile: 255 754 365644 02/11/2009 Presented to the side event UNFCCC Meeting in Barcelona, Spain
Discussion points Background Climate change and variability impacts (Tanzania and Malawi) Institutional arrangements: Strength and opportunities Climate change and TradeTrade-The case of agricultural sectors in Tanzania and Malawi Capacity building and financial Aids required Conclusions and recommendations
1.0 Background In many subsub-saharan African (SSA) countries, smallholder agriculture underpins most rural livelihoods and national economies, and worsening poverty and increasing food insecurity is closely linked to low and / or declining levels of agricultural productivity Accelerating climate change (CC) poses a further significant challenge to improving agricultural productivity in SSA Tanzania s economy is largely dependent on agriculture and, therefore, sustainable development strategic actions, both short term and long term, must address climate change impacts on agriculture and other key economic sectors. Already, various studies conducted at local scale in different zones are showing that CC is a reality and is affecting agricultural sector and others
Continue. I/CP.13 (The Bali Action Plan) By 2030 Links required to address climate change is large compared with the funding currently available under the convention and its Kyoto Protocol Due to that significant share of the additional investment and financial flows for both mitigation and adaptation will be needed in developing countries including Tanzania and Malawi. Article 3: Paragraph 1 of the convention. Developed countries Parties should take the lead in combating climate change and the adverse effects. It is increasingly important to determine how they can support developing country parties in adapting to, as well as mitigating, climate change. In a post 2012 WORLD is a collection of short forward thinking activities by leading experts on the relationship between trade and climate change policies. The idea for was concerned at the International Workshop on PostPost-2012 Climate and Trade Policies UNEP and EU. Trade Ministers in 2007 during the UNFCCC connection on Climate Change negotiations on Bali, Indonesia.
About CCAACCAA-Valued AID on CC Launched in 2006 and jointly funded by IDRC and DFID at approximately CAD $65m Aims to improve the capacity of African countries to adapt to CC to benefit the most vulnerable Sustainable adaptation responding to needs The program seeks to; Strengthen the capacity of African scientists, organizations, decision makers and others to adapt Support ruralrural-urban adaptationsadaptations-the most vulnerable Generate a better shared of scientific information To inform policy process with good science based knowledge For more details: www.idrc.ca/ccaa
2.0 Climate change and variability impacts (Tanzania and Malawi) CCAA funded projects in Tanzania (Strengthening local agricultural innovation systems to adapt to CC and Climate change risk management) Climate change based on scientific evidence and local knowledge Communities at local scale have developed some adaptation measures in agricultural, water and forest sectors Measures are still very weak due existence of weak institutions, weak financial support, poor coordination More details: www.ccaa www.ccaa--agrictama.ac.tz
MBEYA y=1e-06x4-0.0001x3 +0.0037x2-0.0466x+0.1198 DODOMA R2 =0.0373 R2=0.2395 1 1-1 2006 2003 2000 1997 1994 1991 1988 1985 1982 1979 1976 1973 1970 1967 1964 0 1961 2006 2003 2000 1997 1994 1991 1988 1985 1982 1979 1976 1973 1970 1967 1964 0 Temperature Anomalies( C) 0.5 1961 TemperatureAnomalies( C) 0.5-0.5 y=-2e-06x4+0.0002x3-0.0075x2+0.0879x- 0.2947-0.5-1 -1.5 Anomalies(MeanT=28.9 C) Poly. (Anomalies(MeanT=28.9 C)) Fig. 1 Anomalies of Max. Temp. in Dodoma (internal) 1961-2006 Anomalies(MeanT=23.7 C) Poly. (Anomalies(MeanT=23.7 C)) Fig. 2. Anomalies of Max. Temp. in Mbeya (Rufiji) 1961-2006 Current increase in Max Temperature in all basins Rapid warming in Rufiji basin, massive clearing of forest and expansion of agricultural activities
DODOMA R2=0.2714 1 2 1.5 1-1 0.5 2006 2003 2000 1997 1994 1991 1988 1985 1982 1979 1976 1973 1970-1 1967-0.5 1964 0 1961 Temperature Anomalies( C) 2006 2003 2000 1997 1994 1991 1988 1985 1982 1979 1976 1973 1970 1967 1964 0 1961 TemperatureAnomalies( C) 0.5-0.5 y=1e-05x4-0.0012x3 +0.0432x2-0.5612x+1.3841 R2 =0.6609 MBEYA y=2e-06x4-0.0002x3+0.0035x2-0.0026x- 0.4721-1.5-2 -2.5-1.5 Anomalies(MeanT=10.8 C) Anomalies(MeanT=16.8 C) Poly. (Anomalies(MeanT=10.8 C)) Poly. (Anomalies(MeanT=16.8 C)) Fig. 3 Anomalies of Min. Temp. in Dodoma 1961-2006 Fig. 4 Anomalies of Min. Temperature. in Mbeya 1961-2006 Steady increases for Dodoma (Wami Basin), with some stability and Eventually constant increases Cooling in Rufiji, constantly increases in recent years
Continue. In Tanzania and Malawi, NAPAs places Agriculture being among the most vulnerable sector to CC employing 7070-80% of people living in rural areas Impacts Reduction on crop and livestock production Water supply reduced Hydropower supply (drying of dams, rivers and destruction of catchments area etc) Increased migrations (low to high potential areas) Malaria in high potential areas (production costs)
Continue Impacts on sociosocio-economic activities for example various IPCC Seminars shows that by 2080 subsub-saharan Africa may account for 404050% of all under nourished people, compared 24% to day This require strengthening the capacity of individuals, institutions and organizations to adapt to CC&V With little funding ($1.3m) from IDRC/DFID over 500 farming communities have been reached Evidence on capacity building (see figure 5)
Figure 5. Community response to CC and V in Tanzania and Malawi
3.0 Institutional arrangements: Strength and opportunities Different institutions involved in CC Vice presidents office, Division of EnvironmentEnvironment-Policy issues and coordination Sector ministries (Agriculture, Water and Irrigation, Livestock and fisheries, Natural resource and tourism, Ministry of local government reforms, Ministry of finance Institutions (Universities(Universities-University of Dar es Salaam, Sokoine University of Agriculture, Chancelor NGOs--International and local (REPOA, CARE, INADES NGOs Formation) Development agenciesagencies-undp, WWF
Challenges Capacity in terms of human resources and financial resources NAPA issues not clearly known at lower level Linkages/networking/sharing of information No clear budget from the GVNt on climate change issues Opportunities NAPA framework in place Seed money to support climate change adaptations research and capacity building (IDRC/DFID, NORAD, SIDA, DANISH GOVERNMENT) Policy MKUKUTAMKUKUTA-National Strategy for Poverty Reduction REDD framework already in preparation (MKUHUMI) Opportunities for investment on various sectors
4.0 Climate change and tradetrade-the case of agricultural sectors in Tanzania and Malawi Boundary partners The idea was conceived at the International Workshop on PostPost-2012 Climate and Trade Policies UNEP and EU. Trade Ministers in 2007 during the UNFCCC connection on Climate Change negotiations on Bali, Indonesia. It has already significant impacts socially and economically For example: The economics of CC has calculated that the impacts of unabated CC would be equivalent to loss of at least 5% of GDP each year and could reach as much as 20% of Global GDP by 2050 Climate Change is the greater market failure the World has never seen particularly given that the cost of action on Climate Change Mitigation is estimated at only 1% of GDP.
If the world is to avoid the worst impact of CC, a fundamental restructuring of the economy is needed that places into a low carbon path. Why climate change trade?: Production is likely to increase in midmid-high suited altitude areas Decline in low altitude areas where most developing countries are suited. Trade flows from highhigh-latitude and mid latitude products are expected with goods such as cereals and livestock products being exported towards low altitude areas or regions Clearly demonstrated in both Tanzania and Malawi for example flows of Banana from high to low potential areas, maize, beans etc.
5.0 Capacity building and financial Aids required Invest more on agriculture sector Training, research, knowledge sharing, extension services, (more support to NARS, NGOs) Promote markets for more adaptable crops(eg sunflower, sorghum) Financial support to the local agricultural innovation System that has been identified through CCAA to be weak Infrastructure building and strengthening Transport sector to allow effective trade Storage and marketing (WB Supported projectsprojectspaded, TASAF etc Irrigation Water harvesting and storage Weather forecast
Figure 3. Agricultural Innovation System_Tanzania and Malawi Local knowledge/ formal education/ media Public research & link to extension Regulation of agricultural inputs Advice Input supply Private research e.g. seeds Training/ Information Access to productive resources Private research e.g. cellphone banking Marketing Mediating institutional arrangements & policies Infrastructure Livelihoods of farming households Technolog y Business services e.g. credit Processing / Postharvest Registration & regulation of agricultural inputs Facilitation by local organisations (NGOs, farmers groups, local government)
6.0 Recommendations Shift investments and financial flows to more climate friendly and resilient alternativesalternatives-eg Biofuel Scale up international private and public investments and financial flows to most vulnerable countries Optimize the allocation of funds available to Africa. Strategic funding is recommended to maximize outputs In Tanzania and Malawi, Adaptation Actions that requires financing/massive investment can be grouped into three main categories: Actions that climate change proof sociosocio-economic activities mainly Agriculture sector by integrating future climate Risks. Actions that expands the adaptive capacity of sociosocio-economic activities to deal with future and not only current climate risks. Actions that are purely aimed at adapting to impacts of climate change and would not otherwise be included.
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