«Black Sea Freight Market & Ports 2010» 2-4 June 2010, Odessa, Ukraine CIS steel and iron ore export perspectives in 2010-2011 Andrey Baev Metal Expert Consulting
Major metallurgical cargoes in the Black Sea region - Iron ore - Steel semis - Steel products
000 t Iron Ore In 1Q 2010 export volumes from Russia and Ukraine reached five-year maximum 12000 10000 Sintering ore + concentrate Pellets 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 IQ 04 IQ 05 IQ 06 IQ 07 IQ 08 IQ 09 IQ 10
Iron Ore Significant decrease of China share in export structure Western Западная Europe Европа 11% China Китай 24% Казахстан Kazakhstan 3% 1Q 2008 10,7 mln t Eastern Europe 62% Western Зап. Europe Европа 4% 7% 1Q 2009 9,1 mln t Eastern Вост. Европа Europe 20% Kazakhstan Казахстан 2% Western Europe 17% США USA 3% 1Q 2010 10,9 mln t China 33% 2% Eastern Вост. Европа Europe 43% China 69%
000 t Iron Ore: export perspectives Further volume increase of iron ore export is expected in the future. After certain correction in the end of 2010 the trend towards growth will continue. Shares of Eastern & Western Europe, will increase in export structure. Eastern Europe will remain strategic region for Russian and Ukrainian suppliers. Supplies to China won t be dominating, their share will decrease. 18000 16000 14000 Sintering ore + concentrate Pellets 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 IIIQ 09 IVQ 09 IQ 10 IIQ 10 IIIQ 10 IVQ 10 IQ 11 IIQ 11
000 t Semis Export almost reached record indices of 2008, mostly this occurred due to slabs supplies 8000 7000 6000 Slabs Square billet 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 IQ 04 IQ 05 IQ 06 IQ 07 IQ 08 IQ 09 IQ 10
Semis: export geography changed, it approached to precrisis state China Eastern 5% Europe 6% 6% Western Зап.Европа Europe 24% North America 4% 1Q 2008 7,3 mln t & M.East 31% S.E. ЮВАAsia 28% Western Europe China Китай 10% Eastern В.Европа Europe Africa Африка 3% 3% 1Q 2009 6,0 mln t Western Europe 26% S.E. Asia 17% Eastern Вост.Европа Europe Africa 2% 4% & M.East 22% 42% 1Q 2010 7,1 mln t S.E. Asia 34% & M.East 29%
000 t Semis export perspectives Ukraine. Metal Expert forecasts gradual growth of semis export from Russia and Nevertheless, semis export will be less by 2010 compared to 2009. 8000 7000 6000 slabs square billet 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 IIIQ 09 IVQ 09 IQ 10 IIQ 10 IIIQ 10 IVQ 10 IQ 11 IIQ 11
000 t Steel products Export increased, but the pre-crisis period is not reached yet 8000 7000 Flat products Long products 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 IQ 04 IQ 05 IQ 06 IQ 07 IQ 08 IQ 09 IQ 10
Geography of steel products export Middle East and dominate, their share has exceeded pre-crisis level Прочие Other India 6% 4% S.E.Asia 6% Africa 10% E. Europe 12% W. Europe 20% 1Q 2008 5,8 mln.t. & M.East 42% Africa 7% China 9% E. Europe 9% Other 9% S.E.Asia 6% Africa 6% E. Europe 8% India 9% 1Q 2009 4,5 mln.t. & M.East 34% Other 6% 1Q 2010 5,0 mln.t. W. Europe 22% & M.East 43% S.E.Asia W. Europe 11% 21%
000 t Steel products export perspectives There will be decrease in finished steel products export in short-term perspective. By the end of 2010 we forecast renewal of supply growth with further slight correction. 8000 7000 6000 Flat products Long products 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 IIIQ 09 IVQ 09 IQ 10 IIQ 10 IIIQ 10 IVQ 10 IQ 11 IIQ 11
Commodity flows continue dynamic changes Strategies based on yesterday s reality won t work. It is necessary to adapt strategies, investment and operation plans to new conditions in professional and timely way. It is preferable to charge corresponding research & analysis and recommendations development tasks to independent experts on transportation and cargo-generating industries.
Attn: Shipping companies, ports, logistics equipment producers 1. Detailed picture of state and perspectives in cargo-generating industries. 2. System provision of real and potential sources of cargoes, assessment of their potential in freight-flows generation. 3. Forecast of freight-flows changes in long-term and mid-term perspective. 4. Analysis and forecasts of the sea shipping and railway transportation markets on the following issues: competitive environment, tariffs \ rates, transport & logistics equipment and infrastructure. 5. SWOT-analysis and recommendations: increase of competitiveness level, attraction of new freight-flows and customers.
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