The Future for Australia s Gas Exports Wayne Calder Deputy Executive Director Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics (BREE)
Australia - the world leader in gas exports by 2018 Australia is investing $200 billion in the current expansion of LNG exports. comparable to the iconic Snowy Mountains Scheme. a possibility to increase capacity by a further 50%. The key question will growth continue? Source: Snowy Hydro
A sea change in Australia s gas markets 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 bcm 0 bcm 2013 2019 2013 2019 2013 2019 Eastern Aust Western Aust Northern Aust LNG export capacity will expand from 24 Mtpa to 85 Mtpa and exceed Qatari exports by 2018 - additional potential for 35 Mtpa of export projects under consideration - international linkage creates challenges for the domestic market. Source: BREE Domestic Export
Domestic challenges The impact on domestic prices and demand is highly uncertain. in the West, IMO projects a loss of potential demand of 5% by 2018. in the East, AEMO forecasts a substantial reduction in gas use for power generation (GPG). The impact on the industrial sector is still unclear. Source: AEMO GSOO 2013
Australia has large un-tapped gas resources: MACARTHUR BASIN - large conventional gas reserves in offshore WA and NT - significant CSG reserves in Queensland and NSW - a huge potential shale gas resource across Australia, with current exploration focussing on the Cooper basin Source: Geosciences; BREE
Export growth prospects international demand 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 bcm 2013 2015 2017 2019 Japan/Korea Other Asia/Pacific Europe Rest of World Source: Nexant; BREE A surge in demand from 2013 to 2019 will see the Asia Pacific maintain its dominance. within the Asia Pacific we expect a shift from Japan/Korea to new growth markets in China, SE Asia and India. European LNG will also grow as domestic production declines and Russian pipeline imports stagnate.
But supply competition is increasing 600 500 400 300 200 100 bcm 0 bcm M.E. Australia North America Russia Africa RoW Demand Source: Nexant; BREE Supply is very tight following the recent Qatari expansion Australia has taken first mover advantage to capture pent-up demand. But new competitors are emerging: US shale gas revolution Russian pivot east We expect a softer market post 2017
Competition post - 2020 Forecast LNG Liquefaction Capacity 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 bcm 0 US Canada Russia Australia East Africa Existing Growth to 2019 Longer-Term Potential Source: Nexant; BREE Further expansion of Australian LNG exports must compete with a plethora of international proposals.
Uncertain demand growth beyond 2020 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 bcm 0 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 Conventional production Other Pipeline LNG Shale/CBM Russian Pipeline Source: Nexant; IEA; BREE China has many options beyond 2020: coal/renewables/nuclear pipeline imports indigenous production There are many potential opportunities and roadblocks to further growth in LNG Australian LNG can compete by being cost competitive.
Uncertain demand growth beyond 2020 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 bcm 0 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 Conventional Shale Russian Pipeline production Other Pipeline Net LNG Imports Source: Nexant; IEA; BREE European LNG demand grows to 2020 as: indigeneous production falls Russian pipeline imports stagnate US LNG becomes competitive Beyond 2020, growth is less certain: growing African pipeline imports shale gas.
Prices are expected to fall current high spot prices to fall as new supply enters the market. oil-linked contract prices are also expected to fall as oil prices soften. $/mmthm Source: IEA 2013 Source: IEA WEO 2013 These trends will add to the pressure on new Australian projects.
However, costs are rising 10.00 9.00 8.00 7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 - $/GJ Un-committed reserves 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 Cumulative Resource Available (PJ) LNG project costs have exceeded initial expectations Australian costs are 20-30% higher than North American and East African prospects (McKinsey 2013). Cost management is the key issue. IES (2013) Jacobs SKM (2013) Source: IES 2013; Jacobs SKM 2013
Can Australia expand LNG production? Australia has the gas resources, is well located, is politically stable, and has the experience in LNG production Potential customers have many cost effective options: coal/renewables/nuclear pipeline imports shale gas LNG from emerging low cost exporters
Contact details Wayne Calder Deputy Executive Director Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics (BREE) Level 2, 51 Allara St. Canberra Wayne.Calder@BREE.gov.au