TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive summary... 13 1. Recent renewable energy deployment trends... 17 Highlights... 17 Electricity... 18 Technology deployment summary... 18 Regional deployment summary... 20 Transport... 24 Ethanol markets... 24 Biodiesel markets... 25 Electric vehicles... 25 Heat... 26 References... 27 2. Renewable electricity forecast... 28 Highlights... 28 Technology forecast summary... 29 Regional forecast summary... 32 China... 38 Main case forecast... 38 Accelerated case forecast... 42 Asia and Pacific... 43 India: main case forecast... 44 Japan: main case forecast... 47 Other countries in Asia and Pacific: main case forecast... 49 Asia and Pacific: accelerated case forecast... 51 North America... 52 United States: Main case forecast... 53 Canada: Main case forecast... 56 Mexico: Main case forecast... 57 North America: Accelerated case forecast... 60 Europe... 61 Germany: Main case forecast... 62 France: Main case forecast... 64 United Kingdom: Main case forecast... 66 Turkey: Main case forecast... 68 Other countries in Europe: Main case forecast... 70 Europe: Accelerated case forecast... 71 Latin America... 71 Brazil: Main case forecast... 72 6 RENEWABLES 2017
Argentina: Main case forecast... 74 Chile: Main case forecast... 75 Latin America: Accelerated case forecast... 76 SSA... 77 South Africa: Main case forecast... 78 Ethiopia: Main case forecast... 79 Kenya: Main case forecast... 80 Nigeria: Main case forecast... 80 Other countries in SSA: Main case forecast... 81 SSA: Accelerated case forecast... 82 MENA... 83 Morocco: Main case forecast... 84 United Arab Emirates: Main case forecast... 85 Jordan: Main case forecast... 86 Other countries in MENA: Main case forecast... 87 MENA: Accelerated case forecast... 89 References... 90 3. Renewable transport... 93 Highlights... 93 Overview of renewable energy consumption in road transport... 94 Conventional biofuel markets... 95 Global overview... 95 Could new import tariffs in key markets constrain biofuel trade prospects?... 99 Ethanol markets regional outlook... 100 Biodiesel markets regional outlook... 102 Conventional biofuels accelerated case... 103 Advanced biofuel markets... 106 Advanced biofuels main case forecast... 106 Advanced biofuels accelerated case forecast... 107 Status update on advanced biofuel projects... 108 Cellulosic ethanol... 108 Plants using other technologies... 109 Project pipeline... 109 Integrating advanced biofuel technologies into conventional biofuel facilities... 110 Advanced biofuel policy developments... 110 Renewable energy consumption by EVs... 113 Global overview... 113 Electric cars... 114 Electric car country targets scenario... 115 Assessing transport decarbonisation from EVs and biofuels... 115 References... 118 RENEWABLES 2017 7
4. Renewable heat... 120 Highlights... 120 Global overview and outlook... 121 Outlook for renewable heat technologies... 124 Bioenergy for heat... 124 Solar thermal... 128 Heat pumps... 132 Geothermal... 135 Policy developments in key heat markets... 137 References... 138 5. Renewable energy technology trends and costs... 141 Highlights... 141 Electricity... 142 Solar PV... 145 Onshore wind... 150 Offshore wind... 153 Hydropower... 156 Bioenergy... 159 CSP... 161 Geothermal... 163 Transport biofuels... 165 Prospects for advanced biofuel competitiveness versus fossil transport fuels... 167 Renewable heat... 170 References... 175 6. Data tables... 177 Glossary... 180 Regional and country groupings... 180 List of acronyms, abbreviations and units of measure... 181 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1.1. Global total electricity capacity, 2001-16... 18 Figure 1.2. Net renewable capacity additions by technology, 2001-16... 19 Figure 1.3. Renewable capacity additions in 2016 and MTRMR 2016 forecasts... 19 Figure 1.4. Global electricity generation by technology, 2001-16... 20 Figure 1.5. Renewable capacity additions in 2015 and 2016 by country/region and technology.. 22 Figure 1.6. Ethanol (left) and biodiesel (right) production in selected markets, 2015 and 2016... 24 Figure 1.7. Global renewable electricity consumption by EVs (left) and electric cars (right) in 2016... 26 Figure 1.8. Total global energy consumption for heat (left) in 2015 and modern renewable heat consumption by source (right) 2009 and 2015... 27 8 RENEWABLES 2017
Figure 2.1. Global net renewable capacity growth by technology, historical and forecast... 29 Figure 2.2. Global renewable electricity generation by technology (left) versus coal and gas generation (right)... 31 Figure 2.3. Global growth in net generation of renewable and fossil fuel electricity... 31 Figure 2.4. Variable renewable electricity generation in selected countries, 2016 and 2022... 32 Figure 2.5. Net additions to renewable power capacity by selected countries and regions... 33 Figure 2.6. Net additions to renewable power capacity under accelerated and main cases by region (left) and technology (right)... 35 Figure 2.7. Off-grid PV capacity additions and additional initial access per year from SHSs... in Asia (left) and SSA (right), 2016-22... 36 Figure 2.8. Breakdown of SHS prices for units purchased with PAYG vs. cash, split by size and provider... 37 Figure 2.9. China renewable electricity consumption in 2016, targets for 2020 and percentage wind curtailment in 2016... 40 Figure 2.10. China renewable capacity annual additions (left) and generation (right), 2013-22... 41 Figure 2.11. Asia and Pacific renewable electricity capacity growth, 2010-22 (left) and generation by source, 2016 and 2022 (right)... 43 Figure 2.12. Current state-level status of India s UDAY scheme... 45 Figure 2.13. India solar PV and onshore wind annual net capacity additions (left), announced... solar and wind auction prices versus average coal tariffs (right)... 46 Figure 2.14. Japan annual net renewable capacity additions, 2015-22 (left) and estimated cancellation and possible installation of solar PV project pipeline (right)... 48 Figure 2.15. ASEAN cumulative renewable capacity, 2016 and 2022... 50 Figure 2.16. North America renewable electricity capacity growth, 2011-22 (left) and... generation by source, 2016-22 (right)... 53 Figure 2.17. United States RPS-driven generation (left) and announced corporate PPAs (right)... 54 Figure 2.18. United States annual net wind and solar PV capacity additions, 2015-22... 55 Figure 2.19. Canada annual net renewable capacity additions, 2016-22... 57 Figure 2.20. Mexico CEL auction results and annual net renewable capacity additions, 2015-22... 58 Figure 2.21. Price differences in Mexican auctions for selected zones (left), example of month-... and region-specific hourly adjustment factors, area of Laguna in 2026 (right)... 59 Figure 2.22. Europe renewable electricity capacity growth, 2011-22 (left) and generation by source, 2016 and 2022 (right)... 62 Figure 2.23. Germany onshore wind capacity (left) and PV annual additions by segment (right)... 63 Figure 2.24. France annual net renewable capacity additions, 2015-22 (left) and average... solar PV winning bids, 2013-17 (right)... 65 Figure 2.25. UK annual net renewable capacity additions, 2015-22 (left) and 2017 CFD auction results (right)... 66 Figure 2.26. Turkey annual net renewable capacity additions, 2015-22... 68 Figure 2.27. Latin America renewable electricity capacity growth, 2011-22 (left) and generation... by source, 2016 and 2022 (right)... 72 Figure 2.28. Brazil renewable electricity auction results, 2011-17 (left) and annual net renewable capacity additions, 2015-22 (right)... 73 Figure 2.29. Argentina RenovAR 1 and 1.5 auction results... 74 Figure 2.30. SSA renewable electricity generation by source, 2016 and 2022... 77 RENEWABLES 2017 9
Figure 2.31. South Africa annual net renewable capacity additions (left), and solar PV annual net additions by segment (right)... 78 Figure 2.32. MENA renewable electricity capacity growth, 2011-22 (left) and generation by... source, 2016 and 2022 (right)... 83 Figure 2.33. Morocco total renewable capacity, 2016 and 2022, and generation, 2015-22... 84 Figure 2.34. United Arab Emirates cumulative renewable capacity (left) and natural gas supply... vs power demand (right)... 85 Figure 2.35. Jordan annual net renewable capacity additions (left) and solar PV additions by segment (right)... 87 Figure 3.1. Overall renewable energy consumption in road transport 2016 (left) and 2022 (right)... 94 Figure 3.2. Global conventional biofuel production 2008-22 (left) and forecast output growth in Figure 3.3. key regions 2017-22 (right)... 95 Global biodiesel and HVO production 2010-16 (left) and feedstock use for HVO production by Neste 2008-16 (right)... 97 Figure 3.4. Indexed gasoline and diesel demand trends for selected countries, 2012-22... 97 Figure 3.5. Global biofuel exports, 2013-16... 99 Figure 3.6. Annual fuel ethanol production in major (left) and other key markets (right),... 2008-22... 100 Figure 3.7. Global biodiesel production, 2008-22... 103 Figure 3.8. Advanced and conventional biofuel proposals in the Energy Winter Package... 106 Figure 3.9. Forecast annual advanced biofuels production (left) and capacity additions (right). 107 Figure 3.10. Figure 3.11. Figure 3.12. Electricity consumption in EVs globally (left) and in electric cars by major market in 2022 (right)... 113 Carbon intensity of electricity generation in selected EV markets (left) and GHG emissions reduction from selected biofuels under Germany s CPQ (right)... 116 On-road WTW CO 2 emissions from electric cars for selected countries and regions in 2015 (left) and reference WTW CO 2 emissions from selected biofuels (right)... 117 FIgure 4.1. Heat in total final consumption, 2015 121 FIgure 4.2. Global final renewable heat consumption (left) and split between sectors (right), 2015 and 2022... 122 FIgure 4.3. FIgure 4.4. Renewable heat consumption (left) and share of renewables in heat consumption (right), selected countries/regions, 2015-22... 123 Final energy consumption of bioenergy by industry sector in 2015 (left) and global wood pellet production and demand by end use (right)... 125 FIgure 4.5. Solid biomass consumption for heating in China, 2006-16, and 2020 target... 127 FIgure 4.6. Solar thermal cumulative capacity by region and global gross additions, 2000-16... 129 FIgure 4.7. Net solar thermal consumption growth by sector (left) and by region (right),... 2011-22... 131 FIgure 4.8. HP sales in Europe by technology, 2005-16 (left) and share of heat pumps per 1 000 households (right)... 134 FIgure 4.9. Geothermal direct use by country, 2015... 135 Figure 5.1. Figure 5.2. Fixed remuneration contract type for utility-scale renewable capacity commissioned in 2016 and 2017-22 (left) and by technology (right)... 142 Onshore wind and solar PV auction capacity and average price by project commissioning date... 143 10 RENEWABLES 2017
Figure 5.3. Figure 5.4. Figure 5.5. Figure 5.6. Figure 5.7. Figure 5.8. Figure 5.9. Figure 5.10. Figure 5.11. Figure 5.12. Figure 5.13. Figure 5.14. Figure 5.15. Figure 5.16. Figure 5.17. Figure 5.18. Figure 5.19. Figure 5.20. Figure 5.21. Figure 5.22. Figure 5.23. Figure 5.24. Figure 5.25. Figure 5.26. Global average LCOEs and auction results for projects by commissioning date... 143 PV module prices (left), manufacturing capacity and net annual additions (right), 2010-22... 145 Average solar PV system prices for commissioned projects, 2015-22... 146 Historical and forecast LCOE range for typical utility-scale solar PV plants versus recent auction results... 147 Historical and forecast LCOEs for commercial and residential solar PV applications, 2012-22... 148 LCOE of residential PV vs. average residential electricity price in selected states countries, 2010-16... 149 Onshore wind annual demand and nacelle manufacturing capacity... 150 Onshore wind investment costs in selected countries, 2015-22... 151 Onshore wind capacity by age, 2017 and 2022 (left), and maintenance cost ranges and annual maintenance market in 2022 by turbine age (right)... 152 Onshore wind LCOEs for typical systems and recent auctions results, 2009-22... 152 Offshore wind investment costs for fully commissioned projects, 2015-25... 153 Offshore wind turbine size, foundation per MW (left) and LCOE range (right)... 154 Offshore wind auction results and LCOEs by expected commissioning date... 155 Hydropower investment costs, 2016... 157 Global PSP capacity (left) and generation forecast (right)... 158 Global investment cost and LCOE ranges for bioenergy technologies... 159 Announced investment costs and base PPA price of historical and forecast CSP projects (left) and corresponding estimated capacity factors (right)... 163 Geothermal capacity segmentation by technology (left) and forecast (right)... 164 Indexed costs of onshore oil and gas rigs (left) and well cost structure (right)... 165 Levelised production costs and feedstock share of production cost for selected conventional biofuels in the United States and Europe... 166 Brazilian hydrous ethanol consumption and price relative to gasoline (left) and fuel ethanol production versus international sugar price (right), 2015-16... 167 Impact of carbon taxation on advanced biofuel break-even crude oil price... 170 Indicative cost ranges for residential renewable heat and fossil fuel alternatives (delivered heat)... 171 Biomass boiler investment costs by capacity... 172 LIST OF TABLES Table 1.1. Top five countries/regions for renewable capacity additions by technology in 2016.. 21 Table 2.1. Top five countries for renewable capacity growth by technology, 2017-22... 34 Table 2.2. China renewable energy targets and achievements under 12th FYP, 13th FYP targets and Renewables 2017 main case forecast for 2020... 39 Table 2.3. China main drivers for and challenges to renewable energy deployment... 42 Table 2.4. China renewable electricity capacity projection (GW), main and accelerated case... 43 Table 2.5. Asia and Pacific drivers and challenges to renewable energy deployment... 51 Table 2.6. Asia and Pacific main and accelerated cases summary, 2016 and 2022... 52 RENEWABLES 2017 11
Table 2.7. North America drivers and challenges to renewable energy deployment... 60 Table 2.8. North America main and accelerated cases summary, 2016 and 2022... 61 Table 2.9. Europe drivers and challenges to renewable energy deployment... 69 Table 2.10. Europe main and accelerated cases cumulative capacity, 2016 and 2022... 71 Table 2.11. Latin America drivers and challenges to renewable energy deployment... 76 Table 2.12. Latin America main and accelerate cases summary, 2016 and 2022... 77 Table 2.13. SSA main drivers and challenges to renewable energy deployment... 81 Table 2.14. SSA main and accelerated case summary, 2016 and 2021... 83 Table 2.15. MENA drivers and challenges to renewable energy deployment... 87 Table 2.16. MENA main and accelerated cases summary, 2016 and 2021... 90 Table 3.1. Global conventional biofuel production... 96 Table 3.2. Mandates, targets and support policies for biofuels in selected countries... 98 Table 3.3. Annual fuel ethanol production: accelerated case (billion L)... 104 Table 3.4. Annual biodiesel and HVO production: accelerated case (billion L)... 105 Table 4.1. Global trends and forecast for renewable heat, 2010-22... 123 Table 4.2. Bioenergy drivers and challenges: industrial and district heating applications... 125 Table 4.3. Solar thermal heating drivers and challenges... 130 Table 4.4. HP drivers and challenges... 133 Table 4.5. Geothermal heating drivers and challenges... 136 Table 5.1. 2016-17 bioenergy auction results... 160 Table 5.2. Cellulosic ethanol and W&R HVO feedstock cost estimates... 169 Table 5.3. End-user heating fuel price comparison... 174 Table 6.1. Ethanol production (billion litres)... 177 Table 6.2. Biodiesel production (billion litres)... 177 Table 6.3. Total renewable electricity capacity (GW)... 178 Table 6.4. Total renewable electricity generation (TWh)... 179 LIST OF BOXES Box 1.1. Implications of Brexit on the UK renewable energy market... 67 Box 2.1. Off-grid solar PV: an initial step to electrification in developing Asia and SSA... 36 Box 2.2. Mexican energy auction design and grid integration... 58 Box 3.1. Key biofuels proposals within the European Commission s 2016 Energy Winter Package... 105 Box 3.2. Two new global initiatives could support accelerated biofuel market growth... 108 Box 3.3. A portfolio of biofuels offers diesel alternatives in road freight transport... 111 Box 3.4. Estimation of EV renewable electricity consumption: methodology explanation... 113 Box 4.1. Modern renewable heat technologies... 122 Box 4.2. Scaling up solid biomass heating in China... 127 Box 4.3. Geothermal district heating in Hungary... 136 Box 5.1 China solid biomass and natural gas economic assessment... 173 12 RENEWABLES 2017