Utility Scale Solar Power for Saskatchewan Presentation to the The Standing Committee on Crown and Central Agencies Inquiry into the Province's Energy Needs Wade Zawalski October 16, 2009
Saskatchewan s Solar Resource Saskatchewan receives the most solar radiation annually in Canada Solar insolation for Regina is 1361 kwh/kw, even more than Rome which has an annual value of 1283 kwh/kw Source: NRCAN
Mean daily Insolation for latitiude tilt (kwh/m2) Saskatchewan s Solar Resource Assuming identical system costs including module, installation, land and taxes - Saskatchewan has the most favourable solar economics in Canada. The same solar PV module would produce 18% more electrical energy in Saskatchewan than in Ontario over a one year period. Mean Daily Daily Solar Insolation of Canadian Provinces (kwh /m2) 5.5 5 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 Source: NRCAN 2009
World Solar Insolation Map Source: Sunwize World Insolation Map 2004
How does Saskatchewan Compare?
kw Installed Growth of PV in Canada 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Year Source: NRCAN 2009
Cumulative PV (kw)installed in Canada 1992 2011
Ontario Feed-In Tariff Program Effective Oct. 1, 2009 Streamlined application process No caps on program Capacity allocation exempt depending on local grid interconnection Domestic content requirements -50% for projects to 2010 and 60% after Additional incentive for aboriginal and community group projects Type of Solar PV System Payment per kwh Any type 10 kw $0.82 Rooftop > 10 250 kw $0.71 Rooftop > 250 500 kw $0.64 Rooftop > 500 kw $0.54 Ground Mounted2 10 MW $0.44
Solar Energy Technology Saskatchewan s climate makes Photovoltaics (PV) preferable to Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) Technologies
Competing Photovoltaic Technologies Different types of PV technology are competing with each other for market share Crystalline Technologies Mono Crystalline silicon Poly-Crystalline silicon Thin Film Technologies Amorphous silicon Cadmium telluride (CdTe)
Crystalline Photovoltaics Pros: Dominate the current market High efficiency Reliable long life (>25 years) Cons: Complex to manufacture Require assembly into panels High silicon content (very expensive material)
Thin Film Photovoltaics Pros: Reliable long life Rapidly improving technology Use ultra thin layers of material Work in lower more diffuse light conditions Cons: Less efficient (need to be bigger for same energy) Technology is not mature
Components of a PV System Basic PV system includes PV modules Inverter Mounting hardware Cabling Metering Traditional rule of thumb is that installed PV system cost is twice that of PV module for residential and less for large scale installations
Cost of Solar Modules Expressed as cost per peak watt ($/W) Related to: Material inputs used to manufacture (silicon, glass, etc.) Capital cost of manufacturing equipment Manufacturing complexity Efficiency of technology Scale of manufacturing
PV Installed Canadian Price Trends Turnkey prices (CAD) of typical applications from 1999-2008 show significant price drops (source: NRCAN 2009 Price Survey)
Price ($/Wp) PV Price Trends in Canada 12 10 8 Standard Average Price of Solar Modules in Canada ($/Wp) 14 12 10 Balance of System PV Module 8 6 4 6 4 2 2 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 0 Year Source: NRCAN
Solar Buzz Monthly Market Survey Solar Buzz (solarbuzz.com) is a leading US solar industry market research and consultancy firm The company has been tracking retail, commercial and industrial solar electricity prices since 2000 80% of data is collected from US commercial and industrial sources Data is based upon a survey of 70-80 companies surveyed through the internet Financing cost assumed to be 5% and no rebate programs have been built into the data Taxes are not included in the electricity price
Solar Electricity Prices Oct. 2009
PV Trends in Europe In Europe, solar electricity is now competitive with peak power in sunnier high cost electric markets As prices drop solar advantage will increase Market subsidies will not be necessary indefinitely Source: EPIA
PV Trends in Europe Solar electricity is already competitive in parts of the US with higher rates As PV installations proliferate, this will only improve Source: NREL
Improved PV Technology is Helping to Reduce Costs Source: NREL
Investment in Solar Energy Total Global Investment levels are reaching $20 Billion annually EXCLUDING government R&D and project finance
Global PV Production Trends Source: Robert Margolis, NREL 2009
Solar Electricity is Competitive in 20% of the US Electric Market with Existing Incentives
In 2015 with 1%/yr Increase in prices, Solar will be Competitive for 60% of Residential Electricity Sales Competitive 468 of 1000 largest utilities accounting for 60% of residential market 99% of electricity sales be within $.05/kW
First Solar Inc. CdTe Thin Film Technology First Solar was formed in 1999 and launched production of commercial products in 2002 First Solar has achieved the lowest manufacturing cost per watt in the industry, $.87/watt for the second quarter of 2009, having broken the $1 per watt cost barrier in 2008
nanosolar CdTe Technology using printing press technology on aluminum Private (pre-ipo) but has publically announce cost per watt < $1.00 Analysts speculate this could reach <$0.50
Entered solar market 2007 with SunFab amorphous thin film turn key solar fab geared toward utility companies installed cost per watt of $3.50 today ($.20/kWh) 13 systems have been sold largest solar equipment maker Applied Materials
Sask Power Planning to meeting its demand to 2030 Claims PV will cost $.40 -$1.40 / kwh Admits electricity rates will increase 8% year for the next decade Will not report the cost of electricity used for peaking but does admit it is more expensive due to under capacity
Sask Power Daily Demand Profile
Solar Would Help Meet Expensive Peaking Power Sun shines during higher demand hours Solar could displace more expensive (how much?) peaking power Solar can be distributed in 10 MWp blocks throughout the grid to reduce intermittency and transmission costs Flow through our hydro stations could be reduced during day (when sunny) and increased during night to improve system performance Wind and solar complement each other Saskatchewan could easily accomodate 500 MW or more solar electricity during peak daytime hours
Sask Power and Clean Coal $1.4 Billion to retrofit existing Shand Unit #2 Reduce output from 139 MW to 100 MW Collect 1000 tonnes of C02 to be used to extract 3 million additional barrels of oil annually Oil industry would need to invest $400 million dollars for EOR
Shand Clean Coal Project Would Produce electricity at a cost of $0.58/ kwh Help extract 3 million barrels of oil which produce when burned EXACTLY the same amount of CO2 as was sequestered Account for only 3% of provinces total electrical energy Technology is risky and the end goal of net GHG reduction is not met
In Conclusion... Saskatchewan has excellent solar resources Solar technology is advancing rapidly and prices are dropping fast We are missing an opportunity to exploit a reliable and clean source of energy which over Sask Power s 20 year planning horizon will be competitive with other generation sources - especially peaking power The province should commission research into integrating solar power into the existing grid Solar power could easily produce 10% of our peak electrical daytime needs with proper implementation
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