Interim results IEA technology roadmap: geothermal heat and power Dr Milou Beerepoot Senior analyst, International Energy Agency
Share of non-hydro renewables in electricity production of IEA countries Source: IEA, 2010 Between 1990 and 2009, total electricity production from geothermal remained stable, reaching a 0.3% generation share in 2009
Key technologies for reducing global CO 2 emissions Gt CO2 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Baseline emissions 57 Gt BLUE Map emissions 14 Gt WEO 2009 450 ppmcase ETP2010 analysis 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 CCS 19% Renewables 17% Nuclear 6% Power generation efficiency and fuel switching 5% End-use fuel switching 15% End-use fuel and electricity efficiency 38% Source: IEA, 2010 (ETP 2010) A wide range of technologies will be necessary to reduce energy-related CO 2 emissions BLUE Map scenario: 50% CO2 reduction by 2050
IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2010: Growth of renewable power generation in the BLUE Map scenario (2050) Source: IEA, 2010 Geothermal power generation BLUE Map 2050: 1005 TWh
IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2010 Geothermal power generation Blue Map 2050: 1005 TWh Geothermal power generation High-REN 2050: 1411 TWh 23.82% 6.12% Blue Map scenario, shares per region 31.82% 7.21% 5.47% 12.34% 6.47% 5.62% 1.13% Africa Other Developing Asia India China Central and South America Economies in Transition OECD Pacific OECD Europe OECD North America
How do we get there from here? Energy Technology Roadmaps OECD/IEA 2009 At the request of G8 Heads of State/Government Based on scenario to halve CO2 emissions by 2050 Create technical, policy, legal, financial, and public acceptance milestones and priority near-term actions Roadmaps published: CCS, electric vehicles, wind, cement sector, solar PV, concentrating solar power, nuclear power Forthcoming roadmaps : smart grids, biofuels, EE buildings, geothermal energy for heat and power, bioenergy for heat and power, solar heating and cooling
What is an energy technology roadmap? Goals Gaps and barriers GW/TWh Action items Priorities & timelines 2011 20xx Source: Adjusted from (IEA, 2010)
Stakeholders consulted Three workshops, over 100 participants Involvement IEA Geothermal Impl. Agreement Involvement European Geothermal Energy Council (EGEC) Involvement International Geothermal Association Involvement authors of IPCC Special Report Renewable Energy, Geothermal chapter
Geothermal heat and power today 121.7 50.1 Total capacity (GWel), (GWth) and produced energy (TWhel), (TWhth) 2009 Source: (W. Weiss, 2010) complemented with geothermal heat from (Lund, 2010)
Geothermal resources, part 1 Least favourable Source: (Hamza et al., 2008) used with kind permission from Springer Science+Business Media B.V. Most favourable Most well known geothermal resources: high temperature hydrothermal resources, often tectonic plate boundaries
Geothermal resources, part 2 Source: TNO, 2010 Deep sedimentary basins: widespread availability & increasing interest to use resources for both heat and power
And. geothermal resources, part 3 Source: NREL, 2010 Hot rock resources: nearly ubiquitous availability, offering the promise of a site independent renewable power technology
Geothermal roadmap Technologies included in roadmap: Hydrothermal: high temperatures (flash plants) Hydrothermal: low temperatures (binary plants) Hot rock resources: EGS (mainly binary plants) Technologies excluded in roadmap: Ground source heat pumps Alternative technologies discussed, but not included in projections
Draft IEA geothermal roadmap, March 11 Vision for geothermal power 2050 Geothermal electricity capacity could reach 200 gigawatts by 2050, providing 1400 TWh per year (3.5% of electricity production): ETP 2010 Blue Map Hi-REN scenario
Draft IEA geothermal roadmap, March 11 Vision for geothermal heat 2050 (heat pumps excluded) Geothermal heat could contribute to 5.8 EJ annually by 2050 (heat demand EU today = 22.5 EJ)
Draft IEA geothermal roadmap, March 11 Technological challenges Geological data & improvement exploration methods needed (potential mapping and risk reduction) Drilling technology development and costs reduction needed Geothermal should benefit from its potential to offer both power and heat
Geological data mapping and geosciences exploration methods Underground temperature in Germany at 2500 m below sea level (screenshot from www.geotis.de)
Draft IEA geothermal roadmap, March 11 Technological challenges Development of advanced technologies exploiting hot rock resources (e.g. EGS) is essential to realize roadmap vision Improving EGS technology and address environmental issues is crucial Explore potential alternative hot rock and hydrothermal technologies
Advanced geothermal technology: EGS Source: animation from Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), US Department of Energy /www.eere.energy.gov
Advanced geothermal technology : EGS Projection for 2050 assumes EGS to become commercially viable soon after 2030 In the next 10 years, many more EGS pilot plants of 10 MW needed (currently 10) In the longer term, up scaling of plants to 50 to 200+ MW at single site EGS offers the promise of a site independent renewable power base load technology
Status quo geothermal policies Policies for high enthalpy hydrothermal in place (e.g. renewables obligations) or not needed Europe (mainly binary): policy incentives not completely developed (FIT in some EU countries) Insufficient policy incentives for geothermal direct heat, e.g. geothermal district heating Specific challenges geothermal to be addressed in policies
Draft IEA geothermal roadmap, March 11 Policy framework: actions & milestones Set long-term targets for geothermal electricity and heat Introduce market facilitation schemes: transparent and predictable framework Consider introducing market facilitation schemes for geothermal heat use Introduce streamlined and time-effective permit procedures Develop and use protocol for community support for EGS
Draft IEA geothermal roadmap, March 11 Policy framework: actions & milestones Consider guarantee schemes for geothermal exploration risks Enhance training, education and awareness for skilled workforce Increase and sustain public RD&D funding Expand international R&D collaboration Develop mechanisms to support geothermal deployment in developing countries Encourage multilateral development banks (MDBs) to target clean energy deployment
Conclusions Global geothermal power: 1400 TWh in 2050 Global geothermal heat: 5.8 EJ in 2050 Deployment of hot rock resources is essential for realizing this vision (commercial after 2030) EGS is still in demonstration phase: in the next 10 years, many more EGS pilot plants needed In order to do so, substantial more R&D needed More awareness and information is needed for different types of geothermal resources More awareness is needed for potential of geothermal heat