Will Drivers of Deforestation Be Slowed by Indonesia s Moratorium on New Forest Concessions? Earl C. Saxon Stuart M. Sheppard

Pop Quiz 1. What s driving deforestation in Indonesia? A. Logging B. Industrial tree plantations C. Oil palm plantations D. Coal mining E. A, B, and C F. All of the above 2. What s subject to the moratorium in Indonesia? A. New logging on primary forests or peat lands B. New industrial tree plantations on primary forests or peat lands C. New oil palm plantations on primary forests or peat lands D. New coal mines on primary forests or peat lands E. A, B, and C F. All of the above

Pop Quiz 1. What s driving deforestation in Indonesia? A. Logging B. Industrial tree plantations C. Oil palm plantations D. Coal mining E. A, B, and C F. A, B, C, and D 2. What s subject to the moratorium in Indonesia? A. New logging on primary forests or peat lands B. New industrial tree plantations on primary forests or peat lands C. New oil palm plantations on primary forests or peat lands D. New coal mines on primary forests or peat lands E. A, B, and C F. A, B, C, and D

Land Cover Source: Ministry of Forestry Indonesia

Logging Concessions (HPH) Source: Ministry of Forestry Indonesia (2010)

Industrial Plantation Concessions (HTI) Source: Planning Department of the Ministry of Forestry, Indonesia (2010)

Palm Oil Concessions Source: Planning Department of the Ministry of Forestry, Indonesia (2010)

Coal Mining Concessions Source: Asociasi Pertambangan Batubara Indonesia - Indonesia Coal Mining Association (2009)

Moratorium by Presidential Instruction Source: Forestry Decree SK.323/Menhut-II/2011 Ministry of Forestry Indonesia

Land Cover Industrial Plantation Concessions (HTI) Palm Oil Concessions Moratorium Presidential Instruction (PI) Logging Concessions (HPH) Coal Mining Concessions

t km

Riau Province: Peat subject to PI (dark brown); exempt due to concessions (light brown). Peat with primary forest (yellow) not additional due to deep peat and conservation status. Disturbance events detected by MODIS 2/2006-4/2011 (blue), 5/11-8/11 (red) 100 km

Central Borneo: Primary forest subject to PI (dark green), exempt due to concessions (light green), not additional due to steep slope and conservation status (hachure). IMM boundaries (red). Biomass carbon density 101-150 t/ha (red), 151-250 t/ha (purple) 100 km

Area and Carbon Stocks on Indonesia s Peat Lands and Forests Area % Carbon % (Mha)* (PgC)** Total forest and peat lands 103.6 100 42.6 100 Exclusions: secondary forests without peat 48.7 47 8.2 19 Exemptions: land within concessions 12.4 12 11.7 27 Subtotal subject to the moratorium 42.5 41 22.7 53 Previous protection: steep slope, peat >3m deep or legal conservation status 28.8 28 16.0 38 Additional protection by the moratorium 13.7 13 6.7 16 *1 Mha = 1 million hectares **1 PgC = 1 Petagram (1000 million metric tonnes) carbon

Will Drivers of Deforestation Be Slowed by Indonesia s Moratorium on New Forest Concessions? Yes, if Indonesia uses the next 18 months to make lasting improvements to forest and land use governance and the Moratorium becomes permanent Even more could be achieved, if secondary forests and existing concessions were brought under the Moratorium and concession boundaries were rationalized to reduce deforestation

Acknowledgements This report was supported by a grant from the Climate and Land Use Alliance to UCS. It benefited from the advice of KemenAustin, Doug Boucher, Robin Kraft, Deborah Lawrence, Donna Lee, Moray McLeish, Fred Stolle, CalenMay-Tobin and three anonymous reviewers. This report would have been impossible without the efforts of staff of the Indonesian Ministry of Forestry who compiled and posted large amounts of GIS data on line and our GIS colleagues who downloaded and collated it. : For further information www.ucsusa.org/indonesiamoratorium