The European Commission s science and knowledge service Joint Research Centre Scene-setter on jobs and growth in EU agri-food sector Emanuele Ferrari Alfredo J. Mainar Causapé With contributions from T. Ronzon and R. M'barek Workshop on socioeconomic issues DG AGRI - Brussels, 9 June 2017
Outline Current picture and dynamic of employment, turnover and value added of the agro-food sector. A new database to describe and analyse jobs and growth issues. Examples extracted from the database
Millions Millions 14 EU28- Employed persons in Agriculture 30 12 25 10 8 6 4 20 15 10 2 5 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 0 Farm Structure Survey FSS (right scale) Economic Accounts for Agriculture (EAA) Labour Force Survey (LFS)
Millions MS Employed persons FSS 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2007 2013
Millions 3 MS Employed persons LFS 2 5 2 1 5 1 0 5 0 2008 2016
Millions EU28 employment, 2013-2030 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2013 2020 2030 Agriculture Food, beverage and tobacco industry Source: Philippidis, G., M barek, R., Ferrari, E.; Drivers of the European Bioeconomy in Transition (BioEconomy2030) - an exploratory, model-based assessment; JRC Science for Policy Reports
Turnover 1 200 000 1 000 000 800 000 600 000 400 000 200 000 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Agriculture Food, beverage and tobacco industry
Value added 1 200 000 2008 2014 1 000 000 800 000 600 000 400 000 200 000 - Agriculture Turnover Food, beverage and tobacco industry Value added at factor cost
Austria Belgium Bulgaria Croatia Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Poland Portugal Romania Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden United Kingdom 180 Turnover per person employed 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Agriculture Turnover per person employed 2008 2014
Apparent labour productivity (k per person employed) Apparent labour productivity (k per person employed) Location Quotient vs Productivity 70.00 60.00 NL 50.00 40.00 30.00 20.00 10.00 - DK BE NL FR FR UK SK IT UK BE IT LU MT DE LU ES ES MT DE SK CZ SEDK CY HU HU SE EE IE CZ FIEU28 CYIE FIEU28 AT EE EL EL BG LT LT HR HR LV LV SIPT SI PT PL PL RO RO - 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 Location quotient 2008 2014 Adapted from Ronzon et al., 2017 Bio-based and Applied Economics, 6(1)
BioSAMs What is a Social Accounting Matrix? An extension of traditional input-output tables Disaggregated structure of expenditure and income Integrate the relationships between institutional sectors, productive activities, goods and services and production factors. The objective of closing the full economic flow is achieved.
BioSAMs SAM structure and estimation Transaction matrix Final demand 2. Split accounts Value Added Imports 1. "close" matrix
BioSAMs SAM structure and estimation Structure of a Social Accounting Matrix Commodities Margins Activities Factors Households Enterprises Government Savings-Investment Rest of the World Total Commodities Transaction cost (trade and transport) Intermediate consumption (inputs) Household consumption Government consumption Fixed capital formation and change in stock (Investment) Exports Total demand Margins Activities Transaction cost (trade and transport) Marketed output / Domestic sales Total margins Activity income Factors Factor income from activities Factor income from ROW Factor income Households Labour and mixed income (Inter Households transfers) Distributed benefits to Households / Other transfers Current transfers to Households Current transfers to Households from ROW Household income Enterprises Operating surplus / Capital income Current transfers to Enterprises Current transfers to Enterprises from ROW Enterprises income Government Net taxes on products Net taxes on production Factor income to Government Direct taxes Surplus to Government / Enterprises taxes Current transfers to Government from ROW Government income Savings-Investment Household savings Enterprises savings Government savings (Capital accounts transfers) Capital transfers from ROW Savings Rest of the World Imports Factor income to ROW Households transfers to ROW Surplus to ROW Government transfers to ROW Current external balance Foreign exchange outflow Total Total supply Total margins Cost of production activities Factor income payments Households expenditures Enterprises expenditures Government expenditures Investment Foreign exchange inflow
BioSAMs 28 MS and EU aggregate 2010 BioSAMs consist of 171 accounts: 80 activities (27 Agricultural / 14 Food) Margins 80 commodities (27 Agricultural / 14 Food) Labour and capital 3 types of taxes: direct, indirect (net) on activities, indirect (net) on commodities Household Enterprises / Corporations Government Saving-investment Rest of the world
BioSAMs BioSAMs Agri-Food activities / commodities Paddy rice Sugarbeet Fodder crops Wheat Fibreplants Meat of bovine animals Barley Potatoes Meat of swine Maize Live plants Meat of sheep, goats, and equines Other cereals Tobacco Meat and edible offal of poultry Tomatoes Other crops Prepared animal feeds Other vegetables Bovine cattle Olive oil Grapes Sheep, goats, Dairy products Fruits and nuts Swine Rice, milled or husked Rapeseed Poultry Processed sugar Sunflower seed Other animal and their products Prepared animal feeds Soya seed Raw milk Other food products Olive Fishing Wine Other seed for the oil industry Other beverages and tobacco
Employment ('000 jobs) embodied in the final demand of each sector. EU28, 2010 Agriculture Food Other Bio Natural Res. Manufacture Energy Service Total Agriculture 2,944 3,308 184 11 361 28 697 7,532 Food 179 4,944 86 11 372 28 630 6,249 Other BioEconomy 23 102 2,556 13 537 27 741 3,999 Natural Resources 11 61 29 426 226 81 685 1,519 Manufacture 104 569 382 75 15,583 193 4,204 21,110 Energy 12 75 34 14 222 549 406 1,314 Service 1,221 7,400 4,136 717 20,100 1,891 131,598 167,063 Embodied 4,495 16,459 7,407 1,266 37,399 2,797 138,961 208,784 Source: Own elaboration using BioSAMs
Employment (jobs) embodied in 1 million euro of final demand of each sector EU28, 2010 Agriculture Food Other Bio Natural Res. Manufacture Energy Service Agriculture 9.8 2.5 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 Food 0.6 3.7 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 Other BioEconomy 0.1 0.1 3.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 Natural Resources 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 Manufacture 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 3.2 0.3 0.4 Energy 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.8 0.0 Service 4.1 5.6 5.4 3.2 4.2 2.7 13.9 Embodied 15.0 12.4 9.7 5.6 7.8 3.9 14.7 Source: Own elaboration using BioSAMs
0 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 Agriculture Food Other BioEconomy Employment (jobs), total and embodied in the final demand, by sector. EU28, 2010. Source: Own elaboration using BioSAMs Natural Resources 0 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 Embodied Total Agriculture Food Indirect (Others), 45.7% Other BioEconomy Direct (Agrifood), 54.3% Natural Resources Embodied Direct Embodied Indirect
Employment (jobs) embodied in the final demand of each sector (Agri) EU28, 2010 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 Cereals Veg Fruit OilSeeds OilPlants IndCrop Ocrop ExtLivProd IntLivProd OLivProd Raw milk Fishing Source: Own elaboration using BioSAMs Direct Indirect (agro-food) Indirect (rest)
Employment (jobs) embodied in the final demand of each sector (Food) EU28, 2010 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 7,000,000 AnFeed RedMeat WhMeat VegOil OilveOil Dairy Rice Sugar OFoodProd Wine BevTob Source: Own elaboration using BioSAMs Direct Indirect (agro-food) Indirect (rest)
50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Employment (jobs) embodied in 1 million euro of final demand of each sector. EU28, 2010. Source: Own elaboration using BioSAMs 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Agriculture Food Origin (demand) of the employment in each sector, EU28, 2010. Other BioEconomy Natural Resources Own sector Other sectors Other sectors, 17.5% Source: Own elaboration using BioSAMs Agri+Food, 82.5%
The European Commission s science and knowledge service Joint Research Centre Scene-setter on jobs and growth in EU agri-food sector Emanuele Ferrari Alfredo J. Mainar Causapé With contributions from T. Ronzon and R. M'barek Workshop on socioeconomic issues DG AGRI - Brussels, 9 June 2017