Preparing the UK for the Energy Transition: The next decade is critical Jo Coleman, 25th June 2015 2015 Energy Technologies Institute LLP The information in this document is the property of Energy Technologies Institute LLP and may not be copied or communicated to a third party, or used for any purpose other than that for which it is supplied without the express written consent of Energy Technologies Institute LLP. 2015 This information Energy is given Technologies in good faith based Institute upon the latest LLP information - Subject available to to notes Energy on Technologies page 1Institute LLP, no warranty or representation is given concerning such information, which must not be taken as establishing any contractual or other commitment binding upon Energy Technologies Institute LLP or any of its subsidiary or associated companies.
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PREPARING THE UK FOR TRANSITION
Decarbonisation in the context of Increasing demand to 2050 Population: 62 to 77-79 million Vehicles: 24 to 35-43 million cars Housing: 24 to 38 million houses, 80% already exist Action to date Beginning to decarbonise power sector Increasing energy efficiencies (especially in cars) UK energy system is a unique and complex set of interlinked assets and infrastructure Ageing power plants need replacing Significant wind (and marine) energy potential Significant offshore CO2 storage potential Significant opportunity for UK biomass Reasonable public support for all low carbon options But, poor housing stock and very significant heating challenge
Heat / Electricity (GW) Domestic and commercial heat demand 250 The gas grid is our biggest energy storage device 200 Heat Electricity 150 100 50 0 Jan 10 Apr 10 July 10 Oct 10 GB 2010 heat and electricity hourly demand variability - commercial & domestic Data source: UKERC (2011)
Heat Demand (GW) Low carbon heating is a huge challenge 291GW 304GW +132 GW heat demand in 1 hr (0630-0730) -121 GW heat demand in 1 hr (0830-0930) 16 GW 8am 67 GW 6pm Time of Day Saturday 18 th Dec 2010
The next decade is critical in preparing for transition The UK can implement an affordable (~1% of GDP) 35-year transition to a low carbon energy system by developing, commercialising and integrating known - but currently underdeveloped solutions We need to focus deployment on a basket of leading contender technologies Efficiency of vehicles, efficiency and heat for buildings, Nuclear, CCS, Bio, Offshore Wind, Gases There is enormous potential and value of CCS and bioenergy The ability (or failure) to deploy these two technologies will have a huge impact on the cost of achieving the climate change targets and the national architecture of low carbon systems and future infrastructure requirements To avoid wasting investment, crucial decisions must be made about the design of the future energy system, driven by choices on infrastructure
The UK can achieve an affordable transition (1-2% of GDP) but system optimisation key Additional cost of delivering 2050-80% CO2 energy system NPV bn 2010-2050 600 No CCS 500 400 300 1% of 2050 GDP No building packages No nuclear No Bio No offshore wind 200 100 0 No Targets Perfect low cost route Practical low cost route 1% of 2050 GDP No building efficiency packages No Nuclear No CCS No Bio No Offshore Wind
Integrating known, but underdeveloped, solutions Innovation required to reduce cost and increase performance /Te CO 2 in 2050 500 450 400 350 Current technology capability Expected improvement in technology capability 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Reduction in CO2 by 2050
A systems perspective infrastructure is key 2015 Annual Average Energy flows
Infrastructure challenges predominantly mid and downstream 2050 Annual Average Energy Flows in 2050 (Ref Case)
Removing a key option leads to very different infrastructure requirements 2050 Annual Average Energy Flows in 2050 (No CCS)
Incrememental Investment bn/year Preparing over the next decade is a no regrets strategy 50 40 30 20 10 Drive efficiency Technology development, demonstration and early deployment Plan supporting infrastructure Prove business models at scale Develop knowledge base for choices Build supply chains Incorporate consumer and social values Establish democratic legitimacy for decision making Finalise Plans Build infrastructure Manage transition Develop 2 nd gen technologies Complete transition Apply 2 nd gen technologies Plan for post 2050 challenges 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
ETI Scenarios UK energy system power, heating, transport, industry & infrastructure Bound by Climate Change Act 80% emissions reduction by 2050 Building on several years of modelling, analysis and scenario development using ESME and other ETI tools and analysis Devised in consultation with ETI members and stakeholders Launched on 4 th March
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