Electrification of Transportation while Decarbonizing the Grid in California Asia Clean Energy Forum June 2017 Nilmini Silva-Send Yichao Gu
Urban Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Sector 1
Sprawl + Low Density + High Income = more GHGs + pollutants High GHGs/capita https://www.good.is/infographics/transparency-the-cities-where-sprawl-makes-commute-the-worst#open 2
Sprawl + Density + Low Income = more GHGs + air pollutants Lower GHGs/capita 3
California s Approach to Energy Transition Focus Transportation 1. Reduce Energy Demand + Electrify Gas 2. Increase Renewables in Electricity Promote Clean Fuels and Vehicles Improve Fleet Efficiency Reduce Fossil Fuels and Travel Demand GHG + Air pollutant reduction 4
California s Approach to Energy Transition Focus Transportation 1. Reduce Energy Demand + Electrify Gas 2. Increase Renewables in Electricity Promote Clean Fuels and Vehicles Improve Fleet Efficiency Reduce Fossil Fuels and Travel Demand GHG + Air pollutant reduction 5
California s Approach to Energy Transition Focus Transportation 1. Reduce Energy Demand + Electrify Gas 2. Increase Renewables in Electricity Promote Clean Fuels and Vehicles Improve Fleet Efficiency Reduce Fossil Fuels and Travel Demand Regional benefits GHG + Air pollutant reduction 6 Large local benefits IF transportation is major cause of pollutants
California 1973 Electricity Demand Projection and Sources 7
California 2017 Electricity Projection and Sources 8
Electricity Generation Sources 2015 22% Solar 6% Small Hydro 1% California Electricity Sources 2015 Wind 8% Geothermal 4% Biomass 3% Unspecified 14% Nuclear 9% Coal 6% Natural Gas 44% Large Hydro 5% San Diego Electricity Sources 2015 Wind 20% Natural Gas 37% 47% Solar 24% 9 hydro 0% Bio- Gas/biomass 3% Unspecified (assume NG) 16%
Electricity Generation Sources 2015 22% Solar 6% Small Hydro 1% California Electricity Sources 2015 Wind 8% Geothermal 4% Biomass 3% Unspecified 14% Nuclear 9% Coal 6% Natural Gas 44% Large Hydro 5% 10
May 26 2017 California Demand and Supply Demand Hourly MWs Nonrenewables supplied by the grid Renewables supplied to the grid 11
Policies Role of Electricity Restructuring and Deregulation? Environmental and Climate Concerns? 1998 Electricity industry deregulation attempts Creation of independent system operator (non-discriminatory transmission access) Independent power producers (generation competition) 1.6% by IPP in 1997, large generation reserve margins 25% in 2012 Retail pricing reforms More nimble technologically advanced system, depends on customer interaction/demand response, potentially good for intermittent renewables 2000 s - Disruption from renewable energy mandates and environmental/climate concerns Program started 1997 Renewable portfolio standards (20%, 33%, 50%, 100%), storage mandates, EVs for storage? Etc 12
Result of Policies Grid Emission Factor California 2015 290 g CO2e/KWh (630 lbs/mwh) San Diego Gas and Electric 2015 270 g CO2e/KWh (600 lbs/mwh) 13
Result of Policies Grid Emission Factor California 2015 290 g CO2e/KWh (630 lbs/mwh) San Diego Gas and Electric 2015 270 g CO2e/KWh (600 lbs/mwh) Shanghai 900 g CO2/KWh Manila? 14
Policies Vehicle Standards Vehicle fuel efficiency standards (state and federal) 2012-2016 new vehicles 2017-2025 new vehicles California Zero Emission Vehicle Program California Goal for EVS 1.5 million EVs by 2025 15
Result of Policies Vehicle fuel efficiency standards (state and federal) 2012-2016 new vehicles : 250 grams CO2e/mile 2017-2025 new vehicles : 163 grams CO2e/mile California Zero Emission Vehicle Program : 125 grams CO2e/mile 2025-2030 <100 grams CO2e/miles post 2035 California Goal for EVS 1.5 million EVs by 2025 16
Tailpipe Emissions Goal: 1.5 million EVs by 2025 500 450 grams CO2e/mile Only fleet turnover 400 350 Only effect of current zero-emission vehicle program 300 250 With effect of all federal and state regulations 200 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Source: ARB EMFAC2014, EPIC 17 estimate 2017 *for San Diego region only, baseline year 2014
Tailpipe GHG Emissions Avoided with Cleaner Grid. 800,000 600,000 GHGs Avoided Due to Fuel Efficiency Standards + 15% EV Miles Driven by 2035 San Diego Region Metric Tons CO2e 400,000 200,000 0-200,000-400,000 24.00 28.00 32.00 37.00 39.00 Miles per Gallon Passenger Fleet -600,000 1.2 Kg/KWh 0.9 Kg/KWh 0.6 Kg/KWh 0.3 Kg/KWh 0 Kg/KWH 18
Co-benefits of a fleet with 15% EVs SD region: only 1% diesel cars, 270 grams/kwh grid 25 Air Pollutants Avoided Metric Tons/Year 20 15 10 5 PM10 PM2.5 SOx NOx Health benefits! 0 2010 2020 2030 2040 19
Air Quality 20
Conclusions Must decarbonize the grid before or while promoting EVs Vast benefits in terms of air pollution reduction, noise - Health benefits - Health cost reductions Will not reduce congestion 21
THANK YOU Asia Clean Energy Forum June 2017 Nilmini Silva-Send Yichao Gu