IF IRELAND WAS A LEADER IN TACKLING CLIMATE CHANGE WHAT WOULD AGRICULTURE / LAND USE POLICY LOOK LIKE IN IRELAND? Presentation to The Citizens Assembly 4 November 2017 Alan Matthews Professor Emeritus of European Agricultural Policy Trinity College Dublin alan.matthews@tcd.ie
2 National Policy Position an aggregate reduction in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions of at least 80% (compared to 1990 levels) by 2050 across the electricity generation, built environment and transport sectors; in parallel, an approach to carbon neutrality in the agriculture and land-use sector, including forestry, which does not compromise capacity for sustainable food production.
3 Alternative approaches to carbon neutrality Removals In practice, approaching carbon neutrality will require elements from both scenarios integrated land management Source: ICF et al, Agriculture and LULUCF in the 2030 Framework, 2016
4 How to interpret carbon neutrality (1) Source = Emissions Sink = sequestration
5 How to interpret carbon neutrality (2) Source = Emissions Offsets = sequestration + substitution
Is approach to carbon neutrality taking a leadership position? Yes, provided we work on both sides of the balance sheet (sources as well as sinks) at the same time Current best estimate for Ireland is that sinks will offset 35-25% of agricultural source emissions in 2030/2050 To reduce net emissions we must also reduce source emissions Note that the contribution of sinks is restricted by EU legislation when counting towards our EU targets 6
First priority reduce emissions through increased efficiency 7 Lower emissions per unit of output = reduce carbon intensity of production improved grassland management Improved feed efficiency Improved genetics Improved animal health Greater use of no-till and cover crops
Mt CO2 eq 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 8 But improving efficiency is not enough 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Emission projections (WAM) show agricultural emissions flatlining Assumed target 30% below 2005 Source: Own calculations based on EPA data Non-ETS sector Agriculture
How to interpret without compromising capacity for sustainable food production 9 Climate policy must not hinder emission efficient food produced in Ireland Since agriculture is a main emitter of greenhouse gases, it is essential not to expand the national herd How to decide between these two positions?
10 Principles of efficient climate policy Make emission reductions by reducing that activity where there is the lowest economic cost of doing so Agricultural emissions are currently exempt from purchasing allowances (ETS sector) or carbon tax (non-ets sector) and sinks only partially recognised This raises the efforts (and the costs) of meeting non-ets target in buildings, transport and small industries If Ireland must purchase allowances each year to be compliant with 2030 target, then the taxpayer is providing a further subsidy to agricultural expansion
11 Objections to including agriculture in emissions regime There are great practical difficulties to applying a carbon price signal, either a tax or subsidy, in agricultural production Biological nature of emissions Direct measurement of emissions or sequestration is currently not possible on a per animal or per field basis High transactions and monitoring costs
12 Objections to including agriculture in emissions regime Would reduce the competitiveness of Irish agricultural producers and lead to carbon leakage Important advances always require someone to make the first move Whether global emissions would rise would depend on where the substitute beef would be produced and under what conditions International coordination can help to solve this issue Farmers could be protected in interim by recycling tax revenue back to farmers
13 What would a sustainable agriculture look like? A reduction in carbon-emitting activities and expansion in activities that were less carbon-intensive or that helped to sequester carbon Expanded area under forestry Further reduction in suckler cow numbers Greater emphasis on energy crops Changes in cropping and livestock systems
Thousands 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Cow numbers in Ireland, 1975-2016 14 Dairy cows Other cows Source: CSO December Livestock Survey
Financial performance cattle enterprises per hectare Single suckling Cattle finishing 2015 2016 2015 2016 Gross output 920 886 1,074 1,031 Direct costs 456 424 613 583 Overhead costs 446 448 492 495 Net margin -18 18-31 -47 15 Source: Teagasc, Outlook 2017
16 Climate leadership what would it look like? No country in the world has yet included agricultural emissions within an emissions regime Voluntary approaches supported by subsidies The New Zealand example Global action required on food waste and shifts towards less meatintensive diets in developed countries Irish agriculture will face particular challenges in coming years Pricing carbon in agriculture - is this the direction we should go?
THANK YOU 17