Energy Sustainability: A view to 2030 P. T. Mulva Notre Dame s 10 Years Hence Lecture Series February 6, 2009 This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein (and in Item 1 of ExxonMobil s latest report on Form 10-K). This material is not to be reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation.
the outlook for energy 100 countries 15 demand sectors 20 fuel types 1
energy outlook countries & regions 2
demand sectors transportation light duty heavy duty aviation marine rail power generation electricity heat industrial heavy manufacturing chemicals agriculture asphalt energy industry use flaring lubricants residential/commercial residential commercial 3
global economics and energy 4
GDP by region GDP Trillion 2005$ 3.0% 2030 2005 5
global transportation global transportation by sector Industrial 84.5 66.3 40.4 36.8 Res/ Comm global transportation by fuel 2030 2005 1.4% 43.7 61.5 43.7 Transportation Transportation 124.0 82.6 Power Generation 2030: 2005: ~310 ~229 6
global transportation global transportation by sector 1.4% Rail 0.7% 2030 - LDV fuel demand by region Marine Aviation 2.5% 1.9% Rest of World 9.2 7.1 7.1 United United States States Heavy Duty 2.0% 1.9 2.0 Light-Duty Vehicles 0.3% China European Union 20.2 7
U.S. light-duty vehicle penetration U.S. light-duty vehicle penetration vehicles per 1000 people GDP per capita (k 2005$) 8
U.S. vehicle miles traveled U.S. light-duty vehicle miles traveled thousand miles per vehicle 9
U.S. new light-duty vehicles U.S. new light-duty vehicle MPG MPG CAFE EISA* On Road EISA* *EISA Energy Independence and Security Act 10
light-duty vehicles total fleet size millions of vehicles new vehicle mpg miles / gallon U.S. EU EU China U.S. China 11
transportation by sector United States -0.3% Rail European Union 0.1% China 4.9% Marine Aviation Heavy-Duty Light-Duty Vehicles 12
global power generation global power generation by sector Industrial 66.3 84.5 36.8 40.4 Res/ Comm global power generation by fuel 1.6% 2030 2005 Transportation 43.7 61.5 82.6 124.0 82.6 Power Generation Power Generation 2005: 2030: ~229 ~310 13
global power generation global electricity use electricity demand v. GDP K Terawatt hours global power generation fuel demand by region 2030 United States United States 20.2 18.6 1980 2005 Rest Rest of of World World 60.2 36.7 13.0 27.8 27.8 China 14.2 15.8 China China European Union European Union GDP (Trillion 2005$) 14
2005 regional coal reserves 2005 regional coal reserves by region billion tons Asia Pacific North America Asia Pacific reserves percent of total Other 8.6% Russia/Caspian India 33.2% 28.1% Australia Africa Europe Latin America 30.1% China Middle East ~380 billion tons Asia Pacific source: World Energy Council 2005 Asia Pacific coal demand ~2.6 billion tons 15
China power generation China power generation 3.1% Renewables 5.0% Nuclear 10.9% Gas 6.7% Oil -0.3% Coal 2.3% 16
global power generation global electricity use electricity demand v. GDP K Terawatt hours global power generation by region 2030 United States 20.2 20.2 2005 Rest of World 60.2 15.8 European Union 27.8 1980 China GDP (Trillion 2005$) 2030: ~124 17
United States power generation cost United States power generation cost U.S. baseload, startup 2025 2005 cents/ kwhr $60/metric ton CO 2 18
power generation by region United States 0.3% European Union 0.4% China 3.1% Wind & Solar Biomass Hydro & Geo Nuclear 50% 30% Coal Gas Oil 19
global industrial Industrial Industrial global industrial by sector 84.5 66.3 66.3 Res/ Comm 40.4 36.8 global industrial by fuel 1.0% 2030 Transportation 124.0 82.6 43.7 61.5 Power Generation 2005 2005: 2030: ~229 ~310 20
global residential/commercial global residential/commercial by sector Industrial 66.3 84.5 36.8 40.4 36.8 Res/ Res/ Comm Comm global residential/commercial by fuel 2030 0.4% Transportation 124.0 82.6 43.7 61.5 Power Generation 2005 2005: 2030: ~229 ~310 21
growing global energy demand by sector global energy demand - 2030 2005 by sector 1.2% 1.6% 1.0% 1.4% 0.4% 22
growing global energy demand growing global energy demand - 2030 2005 by fuel 0.9% 2030 2005 1.8% 0.6% 0.3% 2.3% 2.2% 9.3% 23
global liquids supply and demand global liquids supply and demand 1.0% ~31 ~34 ~38 OPEC Crude ~28 NGL, OPEC Condensate, Other 24
biofuels by region biofuels by region Biodiesel Other Ethanol Brazil Ethanol United States Ethanol 25
gas supply / demand balance North America BCFD 1.0% Europe BCFD 0.9% Asia Pacific BCFD 3.7% LNG Unconventional Conventional Local Production Pipeline 26
global energy demand & CO 2 emissions energy demand CO 2 emissions billion tonnes IEA Ref. Case 1.2% Wind Solar & Biofuels Biomass Hydro & Geo Nuclear 1.0% Coal Coal Gas Gas Oil Oil 27
CO 2 outlook by region United States billion tonnes European Union billion tonnes China billion tonnes IEA Ref. Case -0.6% -0.6% 2.1% IEA Ref. Case IEA Ref. Case 28
summary economic progress, especially in developing countries continues to drive energy demand 35% higher oil, gas and coal will remain predominant at ~80% of energy mix, even with significant growth in alternatives CO 2 emissions expected to rise globally, even with improved efficiency 29
the energy imperative 30
integrated set of solutions increase efficiency Technology mitigate emissions expand supply 31
conclusion population and economies will expand; energy demand and CO 2 emissions will rise integrated set of solutions required increase efficiency expand supply mitigate emissions technology breakthroughs are critical meeting this demand will require a global effort 32