The past, present and future climate of Peace District Bill Taylor Pacific & Yukon
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) The work of the IPCC represents the consensus of the international science community on climate change science. We recognize IPCC as the world s most reliable source of information and endorse its method of achieving this consensus. Joint statement by Academies of Science May 2001 www.ipcc.ch
Part 1 Evidence of Climate Change Is the climate changing?
Global Climate Trends Source: Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia.
Earth s temperature record deschutes.gso.uri.edu/ www.studyworksonline.com www.studyworksonline.com Proxy record www.studyworksonline.com Instrumental record
Variations in the Earth s surface temperature for the past 1100 years Source: National Academy of Science, 2006
Glaciers in retreat Source: IPCC, Third Assessment Report, 2001
Arctic Sea Ice Melting Minimum concentration of Arctic sea ice in 1979 Concentration of Arctic sea ice on Sept 21, 2005 Arctic ice has been retreating at a rate of more than 8 percent per decade. Source: University of Colorado
Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global mean sea level. Eleven of the last twelve years (1995-2006) rank among the 12 warmest years in the instrumental record of global surface temperature (since 1850). The updated 100-year linear trend (1906 2005) is 0.74 ºC Source: IPCC 4 th Assessment Report, 2007
Part 2 Trends in Canadian Climate Is s climate changing?
Temperature trends t in from 1950 1998 1998 Daily Minimum Units are degrees C per 49-year period. Grid squares with trends statistically significant at 5% are marked by crosses. Source: Zhang et al, 2000
Trends in daily minimum temperature seasonal - from 1950 1998 1998 Units are degrees C per 49-year period. Grid squares with trends statistically significant at 5% are marked by crosses. Source: Zhang et al, 2000
Trends in Annual Temperature Daily Minimum Dawson Whitehorse 1950-2002 0 to 0.5 0.5 to 1 1 to 1.5 1.5 to 2 2 to 2.5 2.5 to 3 3 to 3.5 Daily Maximum Change in C Change in C Watson Lake Dease Lake Fort Nelson Dawson Whitehorse Watson Lake Dease Lake Fort Nelson 0 to 0.5 0.5 to 1 1 to 1.5 1.5 to 2 2 to 2.5 2.5 to 3 3 to 3.5 Fort St John Fort St John Prince Rupert Prince George Prince Rupert Prince George Cape St James Quatsino Victoria Golden Kamloops Summerland Cranbrook Cape St James Quatsino Victoria Golden Kamloops Summerland Cranbrook Statistically significant if circled
Trends in Seasonal Precip 1950-2002 Percent change -45 to -30-30 to -15-15 to -5-5 to 5 5 to 15 15 to 30 30 to 45 45 to 60 Dawson Whitehorse Dawson Prince Rupert Cape St James Whitehorse Dease Lake Winter Watson Lake Quatsino Fort Nelson Fort St John Prince George Victoria Summer Watson Lake Dease Lake Fort Nelson Golden Kamloops Summerland Cranbrook Fort St John Dawson Dawson Whitehorse Cape St James Whitehorse Watson Lake Dease Lake Prince Rupert Spring Quatsino Watson Lake Dease Lake Fort Nelson Fort St John Prince George Victoria Golden Kamloops Summerland Cranbrook Autumn Fort Nelson Fort St John Prince Rupert Prince George Prince Rupert Prince George Statistically significant if circled Cape St James Quatsino Victoria Golden Kamloops Summerland Cranbrook Cape St James Quatsino Victoria Golden Kamloops Summerland Cranbrook
Trends in Daily Minimum Temperatures Grande Prairie 15 10 5 0-5 Winter Spring -10-15 -20-25 -30 1922 1927 1932 1937 Winter Tmin 1942 0-5 -10-15 -20 1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 Winter temps. Grande Prairie Trend over 83 years: 2.2º C (Not statistically sig.) 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 Summer Autumn Variations in Winter Daily Minimum Temperature Grande Prairie -25 0-5 -30 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020-10 Year -15-20 Winter Tmin PDO+ PDO- -25-30 1922 1927 1932 1937 1942 1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002
Part 3 Attribution Why is the climate changing?
Outgoing Heat Energy Incoming Solar Energy Reflected Energy ~31% The Atmosphere s Energy Budget Energy Trapped By Greenhouse Gases (CO2, CH4, N20 + Water vapour)
The Carbon Budget: Sources and Sinks of CO 2 (GtC per year) Fossil fuel burning (6.3) Deforestation (2.2) 2005: 379 ppm Net Atmospheric Increase = 3.2 Gt per year Terrestrial Uptake (2.9) Ocean Uptake (2.4) Source: Woods Hole Research Centre
Trends in CO2 Concentrations (Past 1000 Years) CO 2 concentration (parts per million by volume) 380 360 340 Directly Measured 320 Data from ice cores 300 280 260 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 Source: IPCC, Third Assessment Report, 2001
Global Concentrations of Greenhouse Gases Global atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide have increased markedly as a result of human activities since 1750 and now far exceed pre-industrial values determined from ice cores spanning many thousands of years. The global increases in carbon dioxide concentration are due primarily to fossil fuel use and land-use change, while those of methane and nitrous oxide are primarily due to agriculture. Source: IPCC 4 th Assessment Report, 2007
Source: IPCC 4 th Assessment Report, 2007
s GHG emissions was 34% above Kyoto target in 2004
Part 4 Climate change projections How will climate change in future?
Global Climate Models Computer simulations of the climate system Processes Feedbacks Used to explore the effects of increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere
Future CO2 emissions Demographics population growth? Economic development rate, type? Natural resources rate of consumption? Social-cultural cultural change? Technology alternative fuels?
Projected global temperature change Source: IPCC 4 th Assessment Report, 2007
The Future? Unprecedented warming! Source: IPCC Third Assessment Report, 2001
Warming is expected to be greatest over land and at most high northern latitudes, and least over the Southern Ocean and parts of the North Atlantic ocean Source: IPCC 4 th Assessment Report, 2007
Increases in the amount of precipitation are very likely in high-latitudes, while decreases are likely in most subtropical land regions, continuing observed patterns in recent trends. Source: IPCC 4 th Assessment Report, 2007
Projected change in surface temperature to 2100 Source: Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis
Part 5 Climate change impacts What is our vulnerability to climate change?
Reduction in water supplies Standardized April 1 SWE for Thompson and Okanagan Basins (13 Stations) 2.00 1.50 1.00 SWE_Index 0.50 0.00 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010-0.50-1.00-1.50-2.00
Impacts on Water Supply Reduction in snow pack More rain dominated hydrograph Change in volume and timing of peak flows Stream Discharge Source: Wendy Merritt & Younes Alila, UBC UBC Watershed Model results
Okanagan Basin crop water use in response to climate change Cubic metres (millions) 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 Total water use A21 B21 historic CGCM2- CSIROM2- HADCM3-0 hist 2020 2050 2080 2020 2050 2080 Scenario date Source: Denise Neilsen, PARC, Ag., Summerland
Forest disturbances Increased fire frequency Longer fire season Drier conditions More lightning Insect outbreaks Better winter survival rates Range expansion
Future changes in insect damages? Pinus contorta Pinus banksiana Mountain pine beetle Exploding MPB population But currently occupies only a fraction of its potential range Source: Canadian Forest Service, NRCan
The related increase in land instability may have large impacts on human structures such as buildings roads and pipelines
Warmer winters will also reduce the reliability of winter roads on frozen wetlands Winter Road, Norman Wells or on frozen lakes and rivers Ice Road, Tuktoyaktuk
Conclusion Climate change now underway Potential impacts range from positive to catastrophic The risk of danger due to climate change is real and significant. Adaptation be prepared!