Zions Bank Ag Presentation January 2, 2018
AGRICULTURE
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting as a Percentage of U.S. GDP Agriculture Mining Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation/Warehousing Information Financial Services Professional & Business Services Educational & Health Services Arts/Entertain/Rec/Accom/Food Services Other Services Government 1.0% 1.8% 1.6% 4.1% 6.1% 5.9% 3.0% 4.7% 4.0% 2.2% 8.4% 12.1% 12.3% 12.4% 20.4% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
$140 $4.50 $120 $4.00 Oil Price $100 $80 $60 $3.50 $3.00 $2.50 Gas Price $40 $2.00 $20 $1.50 $0 $1.00 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016 2017 WTI Crude Oil Price Regular Gasoline Price Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
U.S. Farm Productivity Increases While Number of Farms Decrease 6,000,000 300,000 5,000,000 250,000 4,000,000 200,000 3,000,000 150,000 2,000,000 100,000 1,000,000 50,000 1950 1954 1959 1964 1969 1974 1978 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2011 Number of Farms Productivity Source: United States Department of Agriculture
U.S. Beef and Dairy Exports 8,000 7,000 Millions of Dollars 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 U.S. Dairy U.S. Beef
US Beef and Dairy Exports Billions of Dollars 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016 Beef & Veal Dairy & Products Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, GATS
Share of U.S. Agriculture Exported in 2016 15% Dairy 20% Pork >50% Rice >20% of U.S. agriculture production is exported annually 15% Poultry 10% Beef >70% Cotton >70% Tree Nuts 50% Soybeans 50% Wheat >50% Sorghum 15% Apples >30% Grapes >20% Cherries Source: USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service
Contribution to U.S. Agriculture by State 2014 Contribution State 2014 Ranking 16.6% California 1 st 5.5% Texas 3 rd 3.7% Washington 7 th 2.1% Idaho 16 th 1.9% Oregon 19 th 1.6% Colorado 24 th 1.0% Arizona 31 st 1.0% New Mexico 32 nd 0.4% Utah 39 th 0.4% Wyoming 40 th 0.2% Nevada 45 th Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Note: Data unavailable for Delaware and Rhode Island
Per Capita Agriculture Contribution to GDP Top 10 States $4,000 $3,672 $3,618 $3,500 $3,193 $3,000 $2,725 $2,500 $2,000 $1,861 $1,652 $1,500 $1,319 $1,168 $1,061 $955 $1,000 $500 $507 $0 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Note: Data unavailable for Delaware and Rhode Island
Per Capita Agriculture Contribution to GDP Bottom 10 States $600 $504 $500 $400 $300 $200 $219 $199 $159 $158 $152 $130 $109 $100 $87 $81 $76 $0 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Note: Data unavailable for Delaware and Rhode Island
2012 Production Value of Agriculture Products Sold Value State $42,627,472,000 California $25,375,581,000 Texas $9,120,749,000 Washington $7,801,446,000 Idaho $7,780,874,000 Colorado $4,883,674,000 Oregon $3,732,113,000 Arizona $2,550,147,000 New Mexico $1,816,147,000 Utah $1,689,416,000 Wyoming $764,144,000 Nevada Total Value: $108,141,763,000 Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture; 2012 Census Survey
U.S. Agricultural Products Sold as a Percentage of Total Market Value In Thousands of Dollars Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture; 2012 Census Survey
Top 10 U.S. Agricultural Exports Ranking Product Share of Total Export Market 1 st Soybeans 14.2% 2 nd Other plant products 12.5% 3 rd Feeds and other feed grains 8.0% 4 th Tree nuts 6.4% 5 th Corn 6.2% 6 th Beef and veal 4.7% 7 th Wheat 4.2% 8 th Pork 4.2% 9 th Dairy Products 3.9% 10 th Soybean meal 3.6% Source: United States Department of Agriculture Note: Top 10 exports comprise about 68% of U.S. total exports
United States Farm Income $ Billion 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016e 2017f Gross Farm Income Total Expenses Net Farm Income
U.S. Cattle Supply Million Lbs. 7250 7000 6750 6500 6250 6000 5750 5500 5250 2012 2013 2014 2016 Commercial Beef Production 2017f 2018f Yearly Change 8 6 4 2 0-2 -4-6 -8 Percent Change Source: Livestock Marketing Information Center; Note: f = forecast
U.S. Cattle Demand $ per Hundredweight $180 $160 $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 2012 2013 2014 2016 Live Slaughter Steer Price (5-Market Avg.) 2017f 2018f Yearly Change 40 30 20 10 0 Percent Change -10-20 -30 Source: Livestock Marketing Information Center; Note: f = forecast
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting as a Percentage of Idaho GDP Agriculture Mining Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation/Warehousing Information Financial Services Professional & Business Services Educational & Health Services Arts/Entertain/Rec/Accom/Food Services Other Services Government 1.7% 1.4% 3.0% 1.9% 3.4% 2.0% 5.4% 5.5% 6.0% 8.5% 9.7% 8.6% 11.3% 13.6% 18.2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
U.S. Agricultural Products Sold as a Percentage of Total Market Value In Thousands of Dollars Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture; 2012 Census Survey Note: Total slightly higher than individual amounts shown due to information withheld to avoid disclosing data for individual operations
U.S. Agriculture Trade Balance 160 140 Billions of Dollars 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016 Ag Trade Balance Ag Exports Ag Imports Source: USDA, Economic Research Service
Top 10 Idaho Agricultural Exports Ranking Product Share of Total Export Market 1 st Other plant products 19.7% 2 nd Dairy Products 18.4% 3 rd Wheat 13.8% 4 th Vegetables, processed 13.4% 5 th Beef and veal 8.4% 6 th Feeds and other feed grains 7.5% 7 th Vegetables, fresh 7.0% 8 th Grain products, processed 3.4% 9 th Other livestock products 3.3% 10 th Hides and skins 2.6% Source: United States Department of Agriculture Note: Top 10 exports comprise about 97% of Idaho total exports
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting as a Percentage of Utah GDP Agriculture Mining Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation/Warehousing Information Financial Services Professional & Business Services Educational & Health Services Arts/Entertain/Rec/Accom/Food Services Other Services Government 0.5% 2.0% 1.1% 5.2% 6.9% 3.5% 4.1% 3.3% 2.9% 6.1% 6.9% 11.6% 10.9% 13.1% 21.9% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Utah Agricultural Products Sold as a Percentage of Total Market Value In Thousands of Dollars Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture; 2012 Census Survey
Top 10 Utah Agricultural Exports Ranking Product Share of Total Export Market 1 st Other plant products 22.1% 2 nd Dairy products 13.1% 3 rd Beef and veal 12.3% 4 th Feeds and other feed grains 10.2% 5 th Pork 9.9% 6 th Other livestock products 9.2% 7 th Other poultry products 6.5% 8 th Hides and skins 4.7% 9 th Wheat 4.0% 10 th Grain products, processed 3.3% Source: United States Department of Agriculture Note: Top 10 exports comprise about 95% of Utah total exports
Agriculture Export-Weighted Dollar Index 130 125 120 Forecast 115 110 105 100 95 90 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016 2017 Source: USDA Economic Research Service
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting as a Percentage of Wyoming GDP Agriculture Mining Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation/Warehousing Information Financial Services Professional & Business Services Educational & Health Services Arts/Entertain/Rec/Accom/Food Services Other Services Government 1.6% 2.2% 1.4% 1.7% 4.4% 4.4% 4.2% 3.8% 6.1% 5.5% 5.5% 7.5% 13.8% 15.6% 22.2% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Wyoming Agricultural Products Sold as a Percentage of Total Market Value In Thousands of Dollars Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture; 2012 Census Survey
Top 10 Wyoming Agricultural Exports Ranking Product Share of Total Export Market 1 st Beef and veal 29.9% 2 nd Other plant products 17.1% 3 rd Feeds and other feed grains 12.8% 4 th Other livestock products 11.6% 5 th Hides and skins 9.6% 6 th Pork 4.8% 7 th Grain products, processed 3.9% 8 th Wheat 3.4% 9 th Vegetables, processed 1.8% 10 th Corn 1.6% Source: United States Department of Agriculture Note: Top 10 exports comprise about 97% of Wyoming total exports
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